There’s a new poll this morning, by State Navigate (which NAILED the 2025 Virginia governor’s, LG and AG races, by the way) on the Virginia redistricting referendum. Compare/contrast to previous polls by others, including the recent one by the WaPo/Schar School, which had the YES side up by 5 points (52%-47%) among likely voters and 9 points (53%-44%) among registered voters.
So here are some highlights from the new State Navigate poll.
- “‘Yes’ leads by 5 points in our poll. However, rounding the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ numbers yields 51-45; we do not include decimals in our poll releases because it casts the illusion of false precision. In the weighted output, Yes accounts for 50.7% and No accounts for 45.4%.”
- “Democrats are almost entirely Yes voters: 92% of Democrats are voting/have voted Yes, while 5% of Democrats are in the “No” camp. Republicans are almost entirely No voters: 95% of Republicans are voting No, and 2% are in the “Yes” camp. What is different compared to last year’s Virginia gubernatorial election is Independents’ vote choice: 56% of true Independents (meaning they don’t lean toward either party) are voting No, and 32% are voting Yes (a 24-point lead).”
- “…voters were about equally split on which map they preferred for the upcoming midterms: 26% preferred the map displaying the current district lines, while 25% preferred the proposed new lines (the remainder were either unsure (46%) or skipped the question (2%)). “
- “…13% said that only the current congressional district lines looked gerrymandered, 28% said that only the proposed lines looked gerrymandered, 17% said both looked gerrymandered, and 3% said neither looked gerrymandered.”
Also, on Gov. Spanberger’s approval ratings:
- “Our findings come on the heels of the Washington Post/Schar School (GMU) poll that rocked the Commonwealth, showing Spanberger as the most historically unpopular Governor at this point in the most recent Virginia Governors’ terms. 47% of likely voters approve of Governor Spanberger, and 47% disapprove. ” (Note: I’d argue that some of this is out of Spanberger’s control, but I’d also say that she and her team made a HUGE mistake in completely failing to respond to the right wing’s relentless, vicious, false attacks on her the past few months…aimed at destroying her politically. You simply CAN NOT allow that sh*t to go unchallenged!)
- “There’s much more hardcore disapprovers than hardcore approvers, too: 41% of likely voters strongly disapprove of the Governor, while 31% strongly approve; 4% somewhat disapprove, and 11% somewhat approve.”
- “This makes Abigail Spanberger one of the most unpopular Governors in the country.”
Yikes.
A few other findings:
- Trump’s at 42% approve-57% disapprove in Virginia, which actually is a bit higher than I would have expected (I was thinking Trump would be in the upper 30%’s approval in Virginia).
- On party ID, 51% of Virginia voters say they’re Democratic (or lean that way) vs. 40% Republican.
- On ideology, 37% of Virginia voters say they’re “moderate,” with 31% saying “conservative” and 26% “liberal”…
- On education, 26% are “postgraduate or higher,” 26% “four-year college degree,” 31% “some college/associates,” 14% “high school diploma or GED,” etc.
- On recalled vote from November 2025, it’s 54% Spanberger-40% Earle-Sears (Spanberger actually won 57.6%-42.2%).
P.S. Comparison to Youngkin’s approval ratings: (from a July 23 article)
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) approval rating reached a record high amid speculation about his political ambitions, according to a poll released Monday.
Fifty-seven percent of Virginia voters said they approved of Youngkin’s job performance, according to a Morning Consult survey. The poll also showed Youngkin’s disapproval rating at 32 percent. The latest polling shows a steady improvement for the Virginia governor, who had a 56 percent approval rating and a 32 percent disapproval rating in April.
In December, Youngkin held a 55 percent approval rating and a 32 percent disapproval rating, while last April, he had a 53 percent approval rating and a 35 percent disapproval rating. In January 2022, Youngkin started out his first term as governor with a 51 percent approval rating and a 35 percent disapproval rating.
So here’s the problem: Dems are worthless in the sense that they didn’t lay a glove on Youngkin during his first few years as governor, at least. And in general, Democrats have no media/messaging apparatus, plus don’t even use the ones they have effectively, to go after “rising stars” on the Republican side, like Youngkin in 2022, 2023, etc. Why not?!? Meanwhile, Rs have a massive media machine, also are ruthless – when they decide to destroy a rising star in the Dem Party, they go about it relentlessly and in a big way, often with ZERO pushback from Democrats, and of course ZERO risk of the pathetic “mainstream media” ever calling out their lies.
