Interesting analysis from the DCCC:
Last week’s Virginia gubernatorial primary results mean we can now measure the enthusiasm gap between Virginia Democrats and Republicans in real numbers. Analysis of this from multiple outlets on a statewide level drew the same conclusion: “Democrats have enthusiasm on their side.”
These new data points add to the mountain of anecdotal evidence provided by invigorated grassroots organizing, packed town halls, and a flood of letters and editorials that show just how vulnerable Virginia Republicans are in the 2018 midterms.
In an effort to measure how this newly quantifiable enthusiasm translates from a statewide trend to down ballot Congressional races, we compared Presidential and Congressional vote-yield in the 2016 general election to ballots cast in each party’s 2017 gubernatorial primary. Of course, this is not apples to apples, but it is instructive.
In key counties and municipalities across the Commonwealth, Democratic voters comprised a higher percentage of Virginians casting ballots in Tuesday’s primary election than they did in 2016’s general election for President and Congress.
Bottom line: Democrats are fired up and Republicans have problems across the board.
| House Percentage by CD | 2016 General Dem House Vote | 2016 General Rep House Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Virginia 2nd | 106,979
38% |
172,586
62% |
42,051
53% |
37,641
47% |
| Virginia 5th | 147,656
42% |
206,577
58% |
51,037
59% |
35,015
41% |
| Virginia 7th | 158,692
42% |
217,968
58% |
48,692
49% |
50,212
51% |
| Virginia 10th | 181,977
47% |
204,019
53% |
47,649
56% |
34,872
44% |
[Decision Desk, 6/13/17; Politico, 11/8/16]
| Presidential Percentage By CD | 2016 Clinton Vote | 2016 Trump Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout | ||
| VA-02 | 45.4% | 48.8% | 53% | 47% | ||
| VA-05 | 42.3% | 53.4% | 59% | 41% | ||
| VA-07 | 44% | 50.5% | 49% | 51% | ||
| VA-10 | 52.2% | 42.2% | 56% | 44% |
[Daily Kos Elections, accessed 6/15/17]
Drilling down to specific counties within these Congressional districts, the enthusiasm gap that Republicans will have to overcome continues to be apparent.
- Virginia’s 10th, Rep. Comstock
| Virginia 10 – House | 2016 General Bennett Vote | 2016 General Comstock Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Loudoun | 89,523
50% |
89,358
50% |
20,847
63% |
12,393
37% |
| Fairfax County | 52,976
49% |
55,268
51% |
16,064
61% |
10,112
39% |
| Winchester City | 4,970
47% |
5,497
53% |
1,264
55% |
1,037
45% |
| Clarke | 2,895
37% |
4,988
63% |
927
48% |
1,028
52% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
| Virginia 10 – Presidential | 2016 Clinton Vote | 2016 Trump Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Loudoun | 100,975
59% |
69,949
41% |
20,847
63% |
12,393
37% |
| Fairfax County | 355,133
69% |
157,710
31% |
16,064
61% |
10,112
39% |
| Winchester City | 5,164
52% |
4,790
53% |
1,264
55% |
1,037
45% |
| Clarke | 3,051
40% |
4,661
63% |
947
48% |
1,028
52% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
Notable — Corey Stewart defeated Ed Gillespie in VA-10. [Decision Desk, 6/13/17]
- Virginia’s 2nd, Rep. Taylor
| Virginia 02 – House | 2016 General Brown Vote | 2016 General Taylor Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Virginia Beach City | 72,110
38% |
119,362
62% |
24,045
51% |
23,427
49% |
| Northampton | 2,741
46% |
3,240
54% |
1,041
66% |
535
34% |
| Accomack | 5,660
37% |
9,492
63% |
2,116
57% |
1,631
43% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
| Virginia 02 – Presidential | 2016 Clinton Vote | 2016 Trump Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Virginia Beach City | 91,032
48% |
98,224
52% |
24,045
51% |
23,427
49% |
| Northampton | 3,255
55% |
2,686
45% |
1,041
66% |
535
34% |
| Accomack | 6,740
44% |
8,583
56% |
2,116
57% |
1,621
43% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
- Virginia’s 7th, Rep. Brat
| Virginia 07 – House | 2016 General Bedell Vote | 2016 General Brat Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Henrico | 55,118
49% |
56,841
51% |
18,691
55% |
15,553
45% |
| Chesterfield | 55,692
46% |
66,062
54% |
17,406
56% |
13,748
44% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
| Virginia 07 – Presidential | 2016 Clinton Vote | 2016 Trump Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Henrico | 62,429
56% |
49,289
44% |
18,691
55% |
15,553
45% |
| Chesterfield | 59,074
50% |
58,798
50% |
17,406
56% |
13,748
44% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
- Virginia’s 5th, Rep. Garrett
| Virginia 05 – House | 2016 General Dittmar Vote | 2016 General Garrett Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Charlottesville | 17,404
79% |
4,565
21% |
8,418
94% |
526 6% |
| Fauquier | 10,564
36% |
18,901
64% |
3,486
41% |
5,094
59% |
| Albemarle | 31,326
58% |
22,784
42% |
14,238
78% |
4,065
22% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
| Virginia 05 – Presidential | 2016 Clinton Vote | 2016 Trump Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Charlottesville | 17,901
86% |
2,960
14% |
8,418
94% |
526
6% |
| Fauquier | 12,971
37% |
22,127 63% |
3,486
41% |
5,094
59% |
| Albemarle | 33,345
63% |
19,259
37% |
14,238
78% |
4,065
22% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
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