VIRGINIA – During a new interview with WJLA, Winsome Earle-Sears doubles down on her support of Donald Trump’s DOGE cuts that have cost thousands of Virginians their jobs. When asked repeatedly about her support for Trump’s cuts, Sears stands by her record of backing the cuts, and downplaying and dismissing the devastating reality of losing a job.
Reporter: Speaking of the economy, President Trump recently announced thousands of new federal layoffs, many of which are certain to impact Virginia families. Do you support the cuts?
Winsome Earle-Sears: Here’s what I support. We need to get rid of the government shutdown. […].
Reporter: But can I ask you real quickly, do you support President Trump’s cuts?
Sears: I support whatever it takes to get Virginians back to work.
Scoop: GOP senator pushes Vance for help on Trump (“Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) urged Vice President Vance during a closed-door lunch Tuesday to get President Trump to stop demanding that the Senate do away with the filibuster and traditions around judicial nominations, Axios has learned.”)
Yes, Virginia, our elections are secure (“Secure elections and voting rights protections are both critical to our confidence in Election Day outcomes. Just as important, though, is that citizens take their own responsibility to vote seriously, writes columnist Ivy Main.”)
Youngkin political stunt will at least keep SNAP families from starving (Youngkin “is earmarking $1 million – which ain’t much, but it’s something – to Virginia food banks…Wonder where the money for the $40 billion bailout of Argentina came from. Not to mention, the $300 million – and you know that’s a low-ball estimate – to build a 90,000-square-foot Trump Ballroom?”)
Here’s how Virginia plans to feed residents when SNAP funding lapses (“Virginia has the money to cover the cost of distributing food assistance benefits for the month of November, said Gov. Glenn Youngkin as he discussed the state’s plan to stand up a parallel system to distribute benefits during the ongoing government shutdown.”)
See below for some quick highlights, courtesy of VPAP, of the final campaign finance reports (for the perdio 10/1-10/23) prior to the 2025 Virginia elections next Tuesday. A few highlights include:
For governor, Abigail Spanberger leads Winsome Earle-Sears in cash-on-hand by a $4.1M-$1.3M margin. Spanberger outraised Earle-Sears $11.7M-9.5M during this period.
For LG, Ghazala Hashmi leads John Reid in cash-on-hand by $351k-$335k margin, but in cash raised during the period by a much larger $1.9M-$454k margin.
For AG. Jason Miyares has far more cash-on-hand ($2.5M-$685k) than Jay Jones; also, Miyares raised far more money ($8.6M-$1.9M) during the period (10/1-10/23).
For House of Delegates, Dems had $7.3M cash-on-hand vs. $5.2M for Republicans. Dems outraised Rs during the 10/1-10/23 period by a massive, $21.7M-$6.8M margin.
The final Wason Center poll of the 2025 Virginia election is now available. See below for the results/takeaways.
“Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 7 points, 50% to 43% among Virginia likely voters; 6% remain undecided or don’t know.”
“In the Lieutenant Governor race, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid by 2 points among Virginia likely voters, 47% to 45%; 7% say they are undecided or don’t know and 1% say they will vote for someone else.”
“In the race for Attorney General, Incumbent Republican Jason Miyares now holds a 1-point lead over Democrat Jay Jones among Virginia likely voters, 46% to 45%; 8% say they are undecided or don’t know while 1% say they will vote for someone else.”
“In the Generic Ballot test for House of Delegates, the Democratic Party’s candidate leads the Republican Party’s candidate by 8 points, 51% to 43%.”
“Top-of-mind issues for Virginia likely voters include threats to democracy (18%), inflation (18%), healthcare (11%), and immigration (9%).”
“75% of Virginia likely voters have heard some (20%) or a lot (55%) about news reports regarding text messages sent by attorney general candidate Jay Jones in 2022. Among those that have heard at least a little about these text messages, 47% say that it is either very (32%) or somewhat likely (15%) to impact their vote choice for attorney general.”
So overall, not a horrible poll for Democrats, but not awesome either. I mean, Ghazala Hashmi only up by 2 points over someone as extreme as John Reid is really messed up. And Abigail Spanberger up only 7 points over such a bad candidate as Winsome Earle-Sears is also nothing to jump up and down about. As for the AG race, at this point, a 1-point Jason Miyares lead (basically a tossup) isn’t too bad, given the frenzy over Jay Jones’ bizarre texts with Carrie Coyner. Finally, I’d note that former VA Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R/Trump voter)’s quote today in the NY Times about how, supposedly, nobody cares about Jones’ texts doesn’t seem true, at least according to this poll, which finds that 75% of likely voters have heard about this story, and of those, nearly half say it’s either very or somewhat likely to impact their vote choice for AG (although not sure if it impacts their choice for governor at all, and maybe that’s what Bolling was referring to?).
P.S. According to FiftyPlusOne, the polling average prior to this poll had Spanberger +10 (52.2%-42.2%) over Earle-Sears. Also, according to L2 Data’s model, early voting so far in Virginia breaks down as Democratic 56.6% / Republican 38.2% / Non-Partisan 5.1%. So…either the Wason Center poll is somewhat of a Republican-friendly “outlier,” while the polling average and early voting numbers are more reflective of the actual electorate, or Wason is getting at something that the polling average and early voting isn’t. We’ll see in 8 days…
NEW: “Winsome Earle-Sears’s Recent Donations Reveal She’s More Extreme Than Donald Trump on IVF”
The Advocate: “Sears donated thousands of dollars to a far-right Christian organization that has described in vitro fertilization as ‘child trafficking’”
VIRGINIA – New reporting from The Advocate details how Winsome Earle-Sears is more conservative than Donald Trump as she opposes IVF and donates to a “far-right” organization that has described IVF as “child trafficking.” The reporting also points to leaked audio in which a Sears staff member brags she is “more conservative than Donald Trump.”
[…] Newly unearthed campaign finance records, obtained by The Advocate, show that Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle‑Sears donated thousands of dollars to a far-right Christian organization that has described in vitro fertilization as “child trafficking.”
The revelation comes just as President Donald Trump and his administration announced that they are working to expand access to fertility treatments, bringing to light a stark ideological incompatibility within the GOP.
On September 29, Earle‐Sears’s campaign committee, Winsome for Governor, made a $1,800 charitable donation to the Family Foundation, a Richmond-based extreme anti-LGBTQ+ advocacy group that opposes marriage equality, supports so-called conversion therapy, and in blog posts has described IVF as immoral and likened it to “child trafficking.”
The Family Foundation has long championed banning abortion, repealing no-fault divorce, and overturning protections for LGBTQ+ Virginians. In 2024, its blog described fertility treatments as contributing to “the erosion of the traditional family structure.”
In leaked audio from a virtual campaign meeting obtained in March by Virginia Scope, a senior staffer said Earle-Sears was “ideologically right there with Donald Trump” and even “more conservative” than him, a claim later echoed by campaign insiders. The recording captures staff boasting that the candidate’s politics were “more conservative than Donald Trump, who I love and respect greatly,” […].
The timing of the donation is notable. It came just weeks before Trump’s high-profile IVF announcement, positioning Earle-Sears squarely at odds with the party leader’s public stance.
The contradiction is compounded by her recent debate performance, in which she repeatedly declared that firing someone for being gay and opposing same-sex marriage “is not discrimination.”
The donation revelation comes as Earle-Sears trails in public polling and fundraising ahead of the November election.
Together, the donation and the debate remark highlight a campaign deeply embedded in Christian nationalist social policy networks, even as the national party looks to broaden access to fertility and appeal beyond its base. If elected, Earle-Sears would become Virginia’s first Black woman governor and one of the most socially conservative governors in modern U.S. history.
With just 10 days until election day 2025 in Virginia, where do things stand right now? For the latest polling, see here, which weights polls “by quality and recency,” with “averages adjusted for pollster house effects,” etc. – and right now Abigail Spanberger’s up 10 points (52.2%-42.2%) over Winsome Earle-Sears. As for the Lt. Governor, Attorney General and House of Delegates races, a few recent polls have it as follows.
WaPo/Schar (10/23): For Lt. Governor, Ghazala Hashmi’s up 7 points (51%-44%) over John Reid; For Attorney General, it’s tied 46%-46% between Jay Jones and Jason Miyares.
Suffolk University (10/23): For LG, this poll has the race *tied* (44%-44%) between Ghazala Hashmi and John Reid; For AG, Jason Miyares leads Jay Jones by 4 points (46%-42%).
State Navigate: In the LG race, Ghazala Hashmi leads John Reid by 11 points (53%-42%); in the AG race, Jay Jones leads Jason Miyares by 5 points (50%-45%); in the House of Delegates “generic” ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 12 points (53%-41%)
Clarity Campaign Labs (D): “Lieutenant Gubernatorial race: Hashmi holds a lead outside the margin of error over Reid at 48% to 44% (+4), with 7% undecided”; “Attorney General race: Jones and Miyares are tied at 47% to 47%, with 7% undecided”
VCU: “In the race for lieutenant governor, Sen. Ghazala Hashmi holds a 44% to 43% edge over John Reid, compared with a 4-point advantage in the most recent Commonwealth Poll. Notably, Attorney General Jason Miyares leads Former Del. Jay Jones 45% to 42%, a net 9-point swing since the last Commonwealth Poll.” “Among registered voters, 47% say they want a Democrat[ic] majority in the House of Delegates and 44% say they want Republican control of the House of Delegates.”
For some analysis, see below for video of UVA Professor Larry Sabato on MSNBC last night talking about the state of the Virginia governor’s race.
“…there hasn’t been a single nonpartisan poll, that is with a sponsor that does not lean to either party, that has had Spanberger behind. She’s behind only in Republican-sponsored polls or really it’s a tie more than anything else. I think she’s ahead somewhere between seven and 10 points. It may be a little bit more than that depending on where the turnout is. The early voting is usually tilted to Democrats. Exactly how tilted, it’s tough to say from the data that we have available. But you would rather be Spanberger at this point than you would be Winsome Earle-Sears. Very much so.”
“You have to be cautious, obviously, there’s a whole year to go, and in the Donald Trump era, there are 47 headlines a day that can change things. But what I’m looking for is obviously the margins. The greater the margin by which Spanberger wins, the greater the indication that at least in purple states, there’s a lean away from Trump. And you have to remember, Trump has never been popular here. He’s very unpopular. He lost all three elections here by sizable margins. One was a massive landslide, 10 points Joe Biden beat him by in 2020. So there’s nothing unusual about Trump being unpopular in Virginia. I think he’s even more unpopular than normally…”
“There have been some unfortunate developments for the Democratic candidate for attorney general. We only elect three statewide positions – governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. The more interesting thing…that nobody focuses on is that all 100 seats in the House of Delegates are up. Right now, Democrats control it 51 to 49. If they’re going to pull off this redistricting scheme that they have proposed, and it was kept pretty quiet, it’s fascinating, they need a few extra seats, they need some a cushion there come January, when the new General Assembly is sworn in and I think they’ll get it. Everything I see suggests they’re going to move up considerably in the House of Delegates. And if they do have Spanberger, even though she has no role in a referendum, which will have to be held just like California, it’s going to be significant to have her as a new governor pushing hard for this.”
For a focus on the House of Delegates, see here for Sam Shirazi’s latest analysis, which is excellent as always. A few key points include:
“Realistically, there aren’t going to be that many competitive races”
“Republicans are not even competing in half the districts or seriously competing in half the districts. They’re only really attempting to compete in 50 of the districts.”
HD97 (Virginia Beach): “There’s one Democratic-held seat [by Del. Michael Feggans] that the Republicans are competing in; that’s House District 97. I think unless there’s a red wave, which you know right now seems relatively unlikely, I think the Democrats should be able to hold that seat.”
HD57 (Henrico County, Goochland County): “I think there’s a decent chance or more than a decent chance that the Democrats are going to pick up this seat”
HD71 (James City County, Williamsburg, New Kent County): “I think Spanberger is a good fit for the district. I think she’s going to be winning the district pretty comfortably. I think there isn’t going to be a whole lot of ticket splitting or enough to save [Republican incumbent Del.] Amanda Batten. So again, if there are seats flipping, I think this is probably the second seat to flip on election night.”
HD89 (Chesapeake, Suffolk): “…if you kind of have a normal election, Democrats are getting out, the voters to a certain extent, you know I can see this seat definitely flipping”
HD82 (Petersburg, Dinwiddie County, Prince George County, Surry County): “In theory, the Democrats on a good night should be able to win this seat, but I can see this scenario, even if Spanberger is getting a pretty healthy win where for whatever reason, Democrats are just not coming out in this district. I could, in theory, see [incumbent Republican Del.] Kim Taylor holding on.”
HD75 (Chesterfield County, Hopewell, Prince George County): “I think if the Democrats have a good night and they’ve spent the money in this district, I think there’s a good chance they could flip it. If it’s more of a kind of neutral environment, then I think there is a scenario where [incumbent Republican Del.] Carrie Coyner could hang on.”
HD41 (Montgomery County, Roanoke County): “This is the type of seat that could flip. [Democratic challenger] Lily Franklin has run before. She knows how to get those students out. It’s just, can she get and enough of those voters out? Again, purely going to come down to turnout…even if the Republicans [incumbent Del. Chris Obenshain] are ahead election night, doesn’t mean they’re going to win, because there could be enough same-day registrations to give Lily Franklin the edge.”
HD86 (Hampton, York County, Poquoson): “Democrats are pouring a lot of money into this race…The State Navigate poll seems to say that Democrats [Virgil Thornton] have a good chance of winning it [over incumbent Republican Del. A.C. Cordoza].”
HD22 (Prince William County): “The incumbent is Ian Lovejoy and the Democrat is Elizabeth Guzman… we have seen some ticket splitting last year in this district, and we’ll see if it happens again.”
HD30 (Loudoun County, Fauquier County): “The current [Republican] incumbent is Geary Higgins. He is being challenged by Democrat John McAuliff… I think there’s a decent chance Spanberger is going to win this district. Question is how much ticket splitting does McAuliffe get and and does Higgins get because I could see some voters spilling their ticket.”
HD64 (Stafford County): ” The current incumbent Republican is Paul Milde, and he is being challenged by Stacey Carroll…I think, again, good chance that Spanberger is going to win this district. Question comes down and to ticket splitting and can the Republicans hold on in this district?”
HD69 (York County, James City County, Gloucester County, Newport News): “The current incumbent Republican is Chad Green. He is being challenged by Mark Downey… I think there’s a decent chance Spamberger is going to win at the top of the ticket. How much ticket splitting is there?”
HD73 (Chesterfield County): “The current Republican incumbent is Mark Earley, and he is being challenged by Leslie Mehta….Same story…I think Spanberger is going to be doing well in the 73rd district as well, because she used to represent Chesterfield. She comes from the Richmond suburbs. So question just becomes, you know, I’m kind of a broken record, but in all these districts, House District 22, House District 30, House District 64, House District 69, House District 73, how much ticket splitting can the Republicans get or do the Democrats just get straight-ticket voting and do these House of Delegates candidates ride Spanberger’s coattails. And we’ve seen that before in previous Virginia elections, where when there’s a blue wave or a red wave at the top of the ticket in 2017, a bunch of delegates rode the coattails of Northam.”
Sam Shirazi also talks about HD66, which he thinks leans Republican; and HD34, which he also thinks leans Republican)
“I think if there’s a really good night, Democrats winning by 10% or Spanberger is winning by 10% or more, that’s where we start getting into the 60-seat territory. And the Democrats are certainly playing to win a lot of seats.”
Also: “So the Democrats, if they win the House of Delegates, which is increasingly looking like it’s going to happen, they are going to put three constitutional amendments on the ballot for the voters to decide in 2026.”
Episode 35: Will There Be A Wave in the House of Delegates? by Sam Shirazi
Big Tech Helped Bankroll the East Wing Destruction (“Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Google have a lot riding on their relationships with the Trump administration. They all cut checks for the ballroom.”)
Virginia Democrats move to join redistricting push (Horrendously bad headline, but…ok. The fact is, it’s not a “push,” it’s: a) Republicans waging war on democracy; b) Democrats fighting back. WAMU summarizes all that with the anodyne, worthless word “push.” Pathetic…and shows that public media can be just as bad as corporate media.)
Can Jay Jones Still Win? (“A strong performance by Abigail Spanberger could rescue the embattled Democratic candidate. But a split result is a strong possibility.”)
BREAKING: As Sears Touts Work as Lt. Gov., She Has “Empty” Schedule And “Spends Long Periods Not Actively Working”
As Virginians call for transparency about what she’s done in office, Sears refuses to respond
VIRGINIA – New reporting from NOTUS details that while Winsome Earle-Sears touts her work as Lt. Gov., the reality is she has a largely empty schedule and “spends long periods not actively working in an official capacity.”
NOTUS reports that Sears previously declined to share details about her role in the Administration and “did not respond to several phone and email messages left by NOTUS with her gubernatorial campaign and Virginia lieutenant governor’s office.”
Megan Rhyne, executive director of the nonpartisan Virginia Coalition for Open Government, called for more transparency from Sears. This reporting adds to Sears’ “troubling pattern of secrecy” and ethics violations including undisclosed trips, flights, and $12,000 in gifts.
The government website of Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears highlights that she has “traveled over 28,000 miles across the Commonwealth since coming into office” and “headlined numerous events across the Commonwealth and across the nation.”
That track record is part of the case the Republican is making to voters as she runs for governor, with Election Day less than two weeks away.
But her official lieutenant governor schedule tells a different story.
Unredacted calendar documents obtained this month by NOTUS via the Virginia Freedom of Information Act show large gaps — sometimes weeks, other times months — where Earle-Sears lists no meetings, events or governmental engagements on her official schedule.
Earle-Sears did not respond to several phone and email messages left by NOTUS with her gubernatorial campaign and Virginia lieutenant governor’s office.
Earlier this year, Earle-Sears declined to offer specifics when public broadcaster VPM, which obtained a partial version of her schedule, asked her to describe and detail her role in the Youngkin administration.
“I’m not going to divulge what we talk about. […],” Earle-Sears said at the time.
[…] but as a citizen, I’d like to know a little bit more of what she’s doing,” said Megan Rhyne, executive director of the nonpartisan Virginia Coalition for Open Government.
By early 2023, however, Earle-Sears’ schedule grew bare.
Her official schedule contained no engagements from February to July 2023. In August of that year, she listed two events, followed by four in September, three in October, five in November and four in December.
Earle-Sears began 2024 with fewer than a dozen events […]
On Feb. 7, she attended “Aerospace Day at the General Assembly 7:30am – 8am.” And then, nothing: between March 2024 and September 2024, the lieutenant governor listed no items on her official schedule.
But the Virginia state archivist, citing the Virginia Public Records Act, indicates that the state should maintain a permanent collection of “official appearances, itinerary, and speeches” by any lieutenant governor, including “calendars” and “schedules.”
Official schedules help confirm how government leaders spend their time when entrusted with power by constituents. Taken together, Earle-Sears’ schedules do not indicate whether she sometimes sought to keep her whereabouts as lieutenant governor a secret, or conversely, if she spends long periods not actively working in an official capacity.
A representative for Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who campaigned for Earle-Sears as his successor, did not reply to inquiries from NOTUS about how the lieutenant governor spends her time on the job.
“At the end of the day, they’re working for the people who put them there,” J. Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia Center for Politics said of the state’s elected officials. “The average voter would probably want more transparency.”
We’d all really, REALLY be better off if a lot more Democrats spoke and carried themselves like VA Speaker Don Scott. This is great stuff; nice job!
First, see below for video of Speaker Don Scott on Republicans being obsessed with “where the kids are peeing and pooping.”
“You know, I always say Virginia is for lovers, and I think we’re going to send a love letter to the rest of the country that we have not all lost our damn minds. You know, Republicans are focused on one thing in Virginia. I mean, her whole race is, you know, on policing bathrooms. I mean, they’re the pee-and-poop caucus. That’s all they do, they police where the kids are peeing and pooping. They’re not worried about where kids are learning and what they’re getting out of school. And I think, you know, they’re picking on the very smallest percentage of our population.”
Speaker Don Scott on Winsome Earle-Sears’ unhinged debate performance:
“I can’t make sense of that. Are you asking me to perform a miracle? I mean this lady is so unhinged and so out of touch with everything that she says. I mean, you would have thought it would have been a joke. I was sitting in the room when she said that, you know, she said she wants to fire people because they’re gay. And she interrupts her to, I’ve never seen anybody interrupt her to say, ‘excuse me, that’s not discrimination.’ And she says it two or three times. I have never seen anything like that in my life. You know, if you can make sense of it, let me know. I mean, there’s some psychiatrist or somebody out there that may be able to give her the help that she needs.”
Speaker Don Scott on how apparently Winsome Earle-Sears is going to fire her running mate, John Reid, because he’s gay. And lots more great stuff – see below for the full interview with Meidas Touch.
“…they have no idea what everyday hardworking Virginians are going through. And then when you couple that with, you know, she’s running with a person on her ticket who’s a lieutenant governor who happens to be gay. So you put all of that together, you start saying these these people just you can’t make this stuff up. You really can’t…She’s running, the lieutenant governor, he’s gay. And I guess she’s she gonna fire him. I don’t know.”
Here are a few international, national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Friday, October 24.
Will COP30 Finally Prioritize Indigenous Voices? (“Indigenous and community leaders see the upcoming U.N. climate talks in the heart of the Amazon Basin as an unprecedented opportunity to infuse global climate ambitions with justice and inclusiveness.”)
What scientists saw underwater in Florida left them “shocked” — and devastated (“Starting in July 2023, water temperatures in Southeast Florida, home to the only barrier reef in the continental US, started rising to record-breaking levels, partly due to climate change. Sensors recorded temperatures above 93 degrees in some parts of the reef. And corals were ultimately exposed to heat that was as much as four times greater than ‘all prior years on record,’ the authors write.”)
Trump Says He Will Not Seek Authorization for Cartel Strikes (Trump’s just going to murder fishermen and other innocent people, or at least people who haven’t been proven to be drug smugglers, let alone “terrorists,” as Trump keeps saying without any evidence at all.)
The East Wing is gone, and Trump turns to damage control (Whenever Trump does something insane, illegal, corrupt, etc., just imagine the hysterical reaction by Republicans and the media if Obama, Biden, Harris, etc. had done ANYTHING like that. And then ask yourself why there’s such a MASSIVE double standard.)
53 percent disapprove of White House East Wing demolition: Survey (24% approved, which is very low but still should be lower…like, how could literally ANYONE approve of illegally tearing down the East Wing of the White House to build a f’ing GILDED BALLROOM, let alone one financed 100% corruptly??? This is the hard-core 24% of Trump “deplorables” or what???)
Andrew Cuomo Goes Full Islamophobe (“As New Yorkers prepare to vote, the former governor embraces an ugly, familiar brand of anti-Muslim hate.”)
Andrew Cuomo’s Long Goodbye (“In his cynical campaign for mayor, the former New York governor touted the decades he spent in power. That was part of the problem.”)
Bari’s Baier Market (“Barely a month into her CBS tenure, Bari Weiss is making moves that reveal how she intends to reshape the network—including an eyebrow-raising interest in Fox News anchor Bret Baier.”)
House Speaker calls Virginia lawmakers back to Richmond as possible redistricting fight brews (“Surprise special session comes just days before Election Day, with Democrats weighing plans to redraw congressional lines amid GOP accusations of a ‘power grab.’” Republicans have been on a “power grab” across the country, voted unanimously against a Democratic bill in Congress that would have BANNED gerrymandering nationally, so they can seriously shove it.)
Virginia moves to join redistricting trend (It’s only a “trend” because Republicans started waging war on democracy; the “mainstream media” might want to actually mention that fact!)
