Two More Excellent Analyses of Virginia’s Elections

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    Just a “heads up” regarding two, excellent analyses about the Virginia election results posted today on Virginia Democratic blogs.

    First, Ben Tribbett has a well-informed, highly-detailed, but pessimistic take on “The Future of The Virginia Senate”. I largely agree with Ben’s analysis, starting with the fact that the Senate redistricting map “was designed to please the current Democratic Senate incumbents- and was not designed as a 10 year plan to hold the Senate in the 2011, 2015 and 2019 elections it would be used in.” For instance, why did Saslaw cave to Gov. McDonnell and ditch the new, strongly Democratic-leaning (strongly) district for the metro Richmond area? And, while we’re bashing Saslaw, while he was gerrymandering, he seriously couldn’t find a few more dark blue precincts for Edd Houck in C-ville (note that Creigh Deeds won by 29 points, so he had a few to spare)? If Saslaw had done this, Houck would still be here today – easily. I mean, c’mon, if you’re going to gerrymander, at least do it effectively!

    Anyway, getting back to Ben’s excellent analysis, he’s almost certainly correct that “going forward, Senate Democrats face the worst possible scenario.” One ray of hope I’d point (cling?) to is changing demographics, which could swamp the structural disadvantages that Ben correctly points out in his excellent article. At least I hope that happens.

    Second, check out Vivian Paige’s astute article, Minority Status. In it, Vivian nails several points that can’t be repeated enough about the Virginia Democratic Party: a) almost complete failure of leadership; b) “no one takes a long view when it comes to planning for the Democratic Party;” c) “We have no bench and there is no effort to build one“; d) Democrats foolishly “thought…money would magically appear;” e) Senate and House Democrats are not working together but at cross purposes, seriously harming each other in the process; f) Ward Armstrong was a bad fit as minority leader; g) “Brian [Moran]’s resignation from the House to run for governor – a really bad move – resulted in an ineffective caucus chair;” h) the DPVA is nothing more than a hollow shell, “a conduit for funds;” etc. All true; thanks to Vivian for putting it out there for everyone to see!

    • gg2landy

      Mike Troxel, the Tea Party Lynchburg guy who is a 2005 graduate of Liberty Univeristy as well as being the blogger who posted Tom Perriello’s address inviting people to visit his home ( it was really Tom’s brother’s house) just won a write in slot on the local Soil and Conservation Board.

      Remember when this made national news after someone cut the gas line at Mr. Perriello’s brother’s home?

      Being appointed to boards in Lynchburg is the way many local Liberty U grads and conserva-dems get their foot in the political door.

      Listen up for this guy’s name…Scott M. Troxel ( Mike).

    • truthteller

      Watkins seat is winnable. We ran a no name candidate with a 30k campaign kitty and won 43% of the vote in the 10th…. It may not be easy, but particularly when he retires, we can take that seat.

      Also SD 13 in Loudoun. The LCDC this year was moribund, fighting among itself. After 4 years of Dick Black and a  welcome revitalization of the Loudoun Democratic Cmte after a housekeeping effort removes current leadership I think Dick Black may be ripe for defeat.

      Finally Houck’s seat is a lift but if Edd’s up for it in 4 years, I think he can win it back in a better political environment once some of the voters get buyers remorse….

      No the road back to power isn’t easy, but 1 seat isn’t hopeless either.