Home 2012 races Iowa Caucuses Open Thread: CNN Entrance Poll Has It Paul #1, Romney...

Iowa Caucuses Open Thread: CNN Entrance Poll Has It Paul #1, Romney #1a, Santorum #3

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The Iowa Republican freak show/caucuses have begun. I know, don’t get too excited or anything. 🙂 Also, for what it’s worth, CNN’s entrance poll has it roughly as follows heading into the caucuses (numbers calculated from sub-category percentages provided, but they don’t just give you the totals for whatever idiotic reason):

1. Paul 24.0%

1a. Romney 23.5%

3. Santorum 18.5%

4. Gingrich 13.0%

5. Perry 10.5%

6. Bachmann 7.5%

If this is how things end up tonight, it will be a good night for Willard “Mitt” Romney, and not such a great night for Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Michele Bachmann. As for Rick Santorum, if this is the actual finish, it will be a pretty good night for him based on where he was a week or two ago, but not based on where he’d been trending the past few days. He must have thought he could win this thing, but let’s wait until the actual results, not just a CNN “entrance poll” of questionable accuracy and validity.

By the way, the Obama campaign has an impressive social media effort going on tonight, with a wrap-around banner ad on the Des Moines Register website (which should get huge traffic this evening), as well as the video you can see above. Nice job, Obama campaign!

We’ll start getting results soon from a variety of source (e.g., see Google Politics and Elections, AP, CBS, etc.). In the meantime, please feel free to use this as an open thread about the Iowa caucuses and/or the 2012 presidential race in general.

UPDATE Wednesday morning: With 1,766 precincts (99.5%) reporting, it’s Romney 25% (30,015), Santorum 25% (30,007), Paul 21% (26,219), Gingrich 13%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 5%, and Huntsman 1%. For Romney, that’s an almost identical percentage and numerical total to the 2008 Iowa caucuses, essentially demonstrating zero progress since then in rallying Republicans to his side (despite his increasingly shrill, almost crazed, anti-Obama language, not to mention his continued retreat from reality-based policies). Heckuva job, Willard, you’re made an absolute fool of yourself yet STILL not made inroads with the right wingnuts who don’t trust you but who make up a good portion of the Teapublican’t base!

UPDATE 11:00 pm: Bottom line, it looks like  a tossup between Santorum and Romney, which is good news for Willard. Paul underperformed a bit, and the other candidates – especially Bachmann and Perry (neither have any excuses whatsoever, as they both were heavily invested in Iowa) are way behind, probably no “ticket” out of Iowa (although their zombie corpses could continue onwards for a bit longer). Definite winner tonight: Barack Obama, who will end up facing one of these freakazoid/losers, with no apparent sign of Republican enthusiasm in terms of voter turnout. Works for me! 🙂

UPDATE 10:50 pm: With 1,553 precincts (88%) reporting, it’s Santorum 25% (26,443), Romney 25% (26,398), Paul 21% (22,728).

UPDATE 10:46 pm: With 1,402 precincts (79%) reporting, it’s Romney 25% (24,626), Santorum 25% (24,134), Paul 21% (21,002).

UPDATE 10:37 pm: With 1,049  precincts (59%) reporting, it’s Santorum 24% (15,973), Romney 24% (15,389), Paul 22% (14,180).

UPDATE 10:37 pm: With 954 precincts (54%) reporting, it’s Santorum 24% (14,606 votes), Romney 24% (14,205 votes), Paul 22% (13,145). Forget the other candidates, they’re toast.

UPDATE 10:21 pm: With 878 precincts (about half) reporting, it’s Santorum 24%, Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Gingrich 13%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 6%. Seems to me that Perry and Bachmann are certainly toast, Gingrich possibly as well.

UPDATE 10:14 pm: According to Nate Silver, “A linear projection would estimate the total number of votes at 114,429, slightly behind the 119,118 who voted in 2008…So far, reporters who observed that there did not seem to be huge waves of enthusiasm at the events held around Iowa look to be vindicated.”

UPDATE 10:03 pm: With 808 precincts reporting, it’s Santorum 24%, Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Gingrich 13%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 6%.

UPDATE 9:40 pm: With 548 precincts reporting, it’s Romney 23%, Santorum 23%, Paul 23%, Gingrich 13%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 6%.

UPDATE 9:29 pm: With 433 precincts reporting, it’s Santorum 23%, Romney 23%, Paul 23%, Gingrich 13%, Perry 11%, Bachmann 6%.

UPDATE 9:20 pm: With 323 precincts reporting, it’s Paul 24%, Santorum 23%, Romney 23%, Gingrich 13%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 6%.

UPDATE 9:10 pm: With 270 precincts reporting, it’s Paul 24%, Romney 23%, Santorum 23%, Gingrich 13%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 6%.

UPDATE 9:05 pm: With 190 precincts reporting, it’s Paul 24%, Santorum 23%, Romney 23%, Gingrich 13%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 6%.

UPDATE 8:55 pm: With 111 of 1,774 precincts reporting, it’s Santorum and Paul at 24% each, Romney at 22%, Gingrich at 14%, Perry at 9%, Bachmann at 6%.

  • kindler

    …are the two most vicious negative campaigners in the race (counting the shadowy superPACs run by Romney’s rich buddies).  With most of the others winnowed out, you can look forward to a grisly no-holds-barred match of the two of them gouging each other’s eyeballs out.

    Not for the faint of heart.  But it’ll be a good time for Dems to put tons of money and time into getting Obama re-elected!

  • These Republican candidates spent in some cases more than a year — in Mitt Romney’s case seven years — campaigning in Iowa to be the next president.

    But tonight, GOP voters there couldn’t decisively get behind anyone.

    Who exactly leads the Republican race going forward isn’t clear, but we do know two things:

    1) The extremist Tea Party agenda won a clear victory. No matter who the Republicans nominate, we’ll be running against someone who has embraced that agenda in order to win — vowing to let Wall Street write its own rules, end Medicare as we know it, roll back gay rights, leave the troops in Iraq indefinitely, restrict a woman’s right to choose, and gut Social Security to pay for more tax cuts for millionaires and corporations.

    2) We’ll be facing an onslaught of unprecedented spending from outside groups funded by corporations and anonymous donors. In Iowa alone, so-called “super PACs” spent $12.9 million on almost exclusively negative ads. These groups will turn their fire even more directly on us in the weeks ahead to prove that their candidate is the most anti-Obama.

    This race is officially on — and if we want to win, the only way is to out-organize them on the ground.

    Sign up to volunteer your time now, and one of our organizers in your community will give you a call by the end of next week to talk about how you can help.

    Many observers still think Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee. If he is, we will be prepared. But it’s curious that no one can really explain how, when or why the 70-plus percent of Republicans saying in polls and in Iowa that Mitt Romney’s not their candidate will suddenly come around.

    So the path ahead for Romney — or whichever of the Republican candidates is going to emerge from this process — is sadly and starkly very clear: to run even further to the extreme right, and make even more dangerous promises that threaten not only the progress we’ve made but the fundamental fabric of American society.

    We also know that candidates who take these extreme positions can, in the right circumstances, win not only a primary but also a general election in just about any state.

    Just ask the Tea Party senators from Pennsylvania and Kentucky, and the Tea Party governors in Florida and Wisconsin.

    Watching the circus on TV, it’s tempting to think it’s almost funny — but this is not a joke.

    We’ve got to be ready.

    What you decide to do next will determine which kind of politics wins this election:

    http://my.barackobama.com/After-Iowa

    More soon.

    Messina

    Jim Messina

    Campaign Manager

    Obama for America