New PPP Virginia Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 42%; McDonnell’s Approval at 41%

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    Keeping in mind that President Obama does not have to win Virginia in order to be reelected, but that it would be close to impossible for Willard “Mitt” Romney to win without our fine Commonwealth, the new poll numbers from PPP have got to be seen as excellent news for the “blue team.” Here are the highlights:

    *Obama leads Romney 50%-42% head to head. Adding Bob McDonnell to Romney’s ticket gains Willard a whopping point, making it 50%-43% Obama. Adding Eric Can’tor to Romney’s ticket makes matters much worse for him, increasing Obama’s lead to 12 points (50%-38%).

    *If Virgil Goode gets on Virginia’s ballot, Romney is REALLY toast, as the three-way poll has Obama ahead by 14 points (49%-35%), with ol’ Virgil at 9%.

    *Eric Can’tor is wildly unpopular among Virginians, at 22% favorable-41% unfavorable.

    *Bob McDonnell is down to a 41%-40% approval rate, barely above break even. Apparently, Virginians aren’t big fans of transvaginal ultrasounds, complete failure to address our transportation problems, ultra partisanship, political cowardice, and everything else that makes T-Bob such a fine, fine governor. Not.

    *Finally, although Barack Obama’s not exactly wildly popular in Virginia, at 49%-47% (+2 points), those numbers make him look like Mr. Popularity compared to Romney’s 38%-51% (-13 points). My only question is, who are those 38% who have a favorable view of Willard the tax dodging/pathological/lying animal-and-human abusing cyborg, and what the heck are they smoking?

    • gg2landy
    • No Party

      It wouldn’t take much for Va to tip the other way.Obama will never win Va with the numbers in this poll.

    • FreeDem

      Wow.

      Nate Cohn at the New Republic notes that there were three swing states in 2008 where Obama’s coalition was significantly more minority/non-white than the national coalition: New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia. (http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/103969/obama%E2%80%99s-problem-white-non-college-educated-voters-getting-worse)

      Obama’s victory in Virginia did not depend heavily on the white working class, or non-college educated whites, which means any decline in Democratic performance in places like Southwest Virginia will be less noticeable than in the Midwest or other parts of the Rust Belt. Obama was already pretty close to rock bottom in the 9th and elsewhere.

      Looking at PPP’s 73% white sample for Virginia, that’s actually up from the 70% white from the 2008 exit poll of Virginia.

      In that election Obama won 39% of the white vote in Virginia. In PPP’s poll he’s getting 41%, which should be enough to win. This is especially true if the voting population this fall is as non-white, or more, than PPP’s sample.

      I wouldn’t be surprised if the majority of Obama’s votes this fall come from non-white voters.

      Now does the state party reflect this new Democratic coalition?

    • normanva

      The rich and super rich.  Also the low information voters who belive the propaganda from nut radio and fox news.  Also, for cantor, it only matters what his approval rating is in the district.

    • kindler

      I would be cautious reading too much into one poll — and I am very concerned about progressives getting overconfident.

      Repubs are determined to win this election at all levels with a toxic brew of gobs of corporate money, voter suppression and outright lies and deceit.  And don’t put it past them — they’ve done it before, and with candidates not much more appealing than Romney. (Remember a dude named Nixon?)

      I hope everything this poll found is true, but hope is an inspiration, not a strategy.  

    • kindler