Home 2013 races Poll: Kathleen Murphy 48%-Barbara Comstock 45%

Poll: Kathleen Murphy 48%-Barbara Comstock 45%

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Encouraging news from the Kathleen Murphy for Delegate campaign. Now, let’s hope the Republican “brand” has become so toxic due to the Republican government shutdown, social issues extremism, etc., that it takes down a bunch of Republican Delegates currently holding down “Obama/Kaine districts.” Oh, and if you’re interested, you can read my interview with Kathleen Murphy here. She’s a remarkable woman who will make s superb addition to the Virginia House of Delegates!

Memorandum


Date: October 11, 2013

To: Interested Parties

From: Andrew Myers & Lauren Spangler

Status of the Contest – VA HD34

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According to the results of our recent survey of 400 likely November voters, the contest for control in the 34th House of Delegates has moved to an absolute dead heat today, with Democrat Kathleen Murphy leading Republican Barbara Comstock by 3 points, 48 to 45 percent1. Just as importantly, in our simulated model, in which undecided voters are allocated to the candidates based on their self-described partisan leanings, Murphy captures majority status and bests Comstock by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent.

Overall, this survey demonstrates that there have been dramatic changes in Comstock’s personal standing – her cool, or negative impressions, have grown by a 12 points to 36 percent and favorable impressions have dropped by 11 points to 40 percent. Most notable in this shift is that all of the negative growth has been in the very unfavorable category. Consequently, Comstock’s job ratings have also shifted, and today voters split nearly evenly in their impressions of her work as Delegate with 45 percent saying she is doing an excellent or good job, an 8 point drop, and 44 percent rating the job she is doing as just fair or poor, an 11 point increase.

The favorable trends afoot here for Democrats are also seen at the top of the ticket, where Terry McAuliffe bests Ken Cuccinelli by 15 points, 54 to 39 percent, and in the generic legislative contest, where today a generic Democrat leads a generic Republican for Delegate by 9 points, 50 to 41 percent. Notably that performance mirrors the generic performance we saw in this district in 2007 when Democrat Margie Vanderhye carried the district on Election Day.

Bottom line, the salience of Murphy’s message and contrast with Comstock on choice, along with a favorable electoral environment, in part fueled by the federal government shutdown, have all come together to put this contest solidly in play for Democrats, and it represents the Democrats’ best shot to win control of this seat in the last two elections.

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1 These findings are based on a survey of 400 likely November 2009 voters in Virginia’s 34th House of Delegates District. Calling took place from October 9 – 10, 2013, and interviews were conducted by professional interviewers supervised by Myers Research | Strategic Services staff. The data were stratified to reflect the projected geographical contribution to the total expected vote. The margin of error associated with these data at a 95 in 100 percent confidence level is +/- 4.9 percent. The margin of error for subgroups is greater and varies.