From the Mark Herring for AG campaign, which now looks it may have been successful after all! As of this moment (6:17 am Wednesday), the State Board of Elections website shows Mark Herring with 1,098,418 votes (49.91%) to Mark Obenshain’s 1,097,877 (48.88%). Also, there three precincts outstanding – 2 in Mecklenburg County, which Obenshain won 60%-40%; and 1 in Rockingham county, which Obenshain won 75%-25%. So…Obenshain could pick up 100-150 votes, but he trails by 541 votes, making it a tough roe to how for Obenshain.
Mark Herring released the following statement regarding his lead in the race for Attorney General:
“Election Day is over and I am honored to have a majority of Virginians cast their ballots for me for Attorney General. Just before 2 a.m., we took a several hundred vote lead to become the next Attorney General of the Commonwealth of Virginia.
“I am grateful to have earned the support of so many Virginans all across the Commonwealth and look forward to continuing to work on their behalf.”
UPDATE: Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report tweets: “By my math, Obenshain is likely to net another 700-800 votes from the three outstanding precincts. Herring’s current ‘true’ lead: 358 votes.” Thus, he adds: “So, I expect Herring (D) to be 300-500 votes short pre-provisionals. But who knows how many counting errors/uncounted absentees there are.”
UPDATE 9:15 am: Bad news. According to Dave Wasserman again, “AP now says Obenshain (R) up by 53 votes after McGaheysville reports 676 votes Obenshain (R), 245 Herring (D).” Also, “Obenshain (R) can expect to gain another 200 in Buchanan Co., ~200 in Mecklenburg & ~100 in Rockbridge, for 500-600 vote lead (2/2).”
UPDATE 10:03 am: Geoffrey Skelley of Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” tweets: “With Rockbridge precinct counted, AP has Obenshain +144. SBE has remaining PWC precinct Herring +62. So Obenshain +82. Canvass to come.”
UPDATE 10:17 am: This could very well come down to provisional ballots. In 2008, there were 4,575 of those case in Virginia. Not sure how many this year, but assuming Obenshain’s up just 82 votes (or a couple hundred for that matter), there should be way more than enough provisional ballots to determine this race. Democrats need to fight for every single provisional ballot, make sure people aren’t disenfranchised, that they have proper ID, etc. Republicans will almost certainly fight for the opposite. This is going to be a battle royale.
UPDATE 10:20 am: Attorney and Virginia DNC member Frank Leone tweets “1st count – canvass/provisionals today, prov ID Friday, then certify, then recount.”
UPDATE 3:53 pm: Not good – Dave Wasserman tweets, “A source close to Fairfax Co. elections office says all absentees there have been tallied. Only ~500 provisionals, will be processed Fri.”