Home 2016 elections Virginia Primary Day 2016: Open Thread and Results Live Blog

Virginia Primary Day 2016: Open Thread and Results Live Blog

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UPDATE 9:18 pm: Oh yeah, forgot to mention that Ben Tribbett predicted all the results correctly tonight (Taylor, Wade, McEachin, Mason, Garvey), other than the margin of victory for Libby Garvey in Arlington. On the latter, I actually was much closer to the actual result, as I was thinking somewhere in the 60/40 or 55/45 range, and it ended up at 55/45.

UPDATE 9:00 pm: According to ACDC, “Garvey won 55 percent (8,362 votes) to Gutshall’s 45 percent (6,878 votes) with 11 percent voter turnout (15,240 voters).” What I’d be curious to know is what the results were among Democrats only, also how many Republicans turned out to vote for Garvey. My guess is it would have been super close if it had just been Dems voting, but since Virginia doesn’t have party registration, there’s no way ACDC could close the primary to Dems only.

UPDATE 8:02 pm:  With 42/53 precincts reporting in Arlington, it’s Libby Garvey 57%-Erik Gutshall 43%. Looks like Scott Taylor will beat Randy Forbes by around 13 points. Donald McEachin should end up winning with more than 70% of the vote. Mike Wade continues to hold a nearly 30-point lead with 63% of precincts reporting. And Bob Good…er, BADlatte should win by 55 points or so.

UPDATE 7:52 pm:  By the way, I find it fascinating how badly Randy Forbes is losing to Scott Taylor (53%-40% with 89% of precincts reporting), given that current VA-02 Congressman Scott Rigell endorsed Forbes.

UPDATE 7:45 pm:  So at this point, we can confidently say that Donald McEachin will win the Democratic nomination in VA-04; Monty Mason will win the Democratic nomination in the 1st State Senate district; Libby Garvey will win the Democratic nomination in the Arlington County Board primary; Scott Taylor will knock off Randy Forbes in VA-02; Mike Wade will beat Jackee Gonzalez in VA-04; Bob Goodlatte will romp over Harry Griego in VA-06.

UPDATE 7:42 pm:  With 75% of precincts reporting in VA-02 GOP, it’s looking really bad for Rep. Randy Forbes, as he trails Scott Taylor by 12 points. In VA-04 GOP, with 45% of precincts reporting, Mike Wade continues to cruise by a nearly 2:1 margin over Jackee Gonzalez.

UPDATE 7:40 pm:  With 29/53 precincts reporting in Arlington, Libby Garvey leads handily (57%-43%) over Erik Gutshall. Looks like Garvey should win reelection. Bummer for all the Gutshall supporters, myself included, out there…

UPDATE 7:38 pm:  I had thought that Donald McEachin would win 70%-30% or something like that, but so far he’s winning even BIGGER. Right now, it’s soon-to-be Congressman Donald McEachin 79%-Ella Ward 21% with 45% of precincts reporting. 🙂

UPDATE 7:36 pm:  Finally some results from Arlington’s County Board Democratic primary, as incumbent Libby Garvey leads Erik Gutshall 500 (55.7%)-397 (44.3%).

UPDATE 7:33 pm:  With 108/180 precincts reporting in VA-02 GOP, it’s looking good for Scott Taylor, who’s up 14,372 (52.0%)-11,305 (40.9%) over (soon-to-be-former?) Rep. Randy Forbes. In VA-04 GOP, Mike Wade continues to cruise (61%-39%) with 80/259 precincts reporting. And Bob BADlatte continues to crush his Republican primary opponent, Harry Griego.

UPDATE 7:31 pm:  With 45/52 precincts reporting, Monty Mason just jumped ahead of Shelly Simonds, 57.1%-42.9%. Looks like Mason will pull this one out.

UPDATE 7:28 pm:  With 39/52 precincts reporting, it’s Simonds 2,236 (50.49%)-Mason 2,193 (49.51%). Tighter than a tick, as Dan Rather used to say! LOL As for VA-04, Donald McEachin continues to cruise (76%-24%), with 58/259 precincts reporting.

UPDATE 7:22 pm:  In the VA-02 GOP primary, it’s now Taylor 50.76%-Forbes 41.9% with 35% of precincts reporting.  Looking good for Taylor so far (good riddance to Forbes if he loses; the guy’s bonkers). Oh, and Rep. Goodlatte (VA-06) continues to cruise, as does Mike Wade (VA-04 GOP).

UPDATE 7:17 pm:  It’s now Simonds 55.3%-Mason 44.7% in Senate District 1, with 22/52 precincts reporting (but very few votes, just 260-210!). Also note, there seems to be a discrepancy between VPAP and the SBE. The latter has it at Simonds 51.5%-Mason 48.5% with 22/52 precincts reporting. Also, the raw vote totals are different; SBE reports Simonds 1,304-Mason 1,230. Looks like VPAP is screwed up.

UPDATE 7:14 pm:  In the 1st State Senate district Dem primary, it’s Simonds 55.3%-Mason 44.7% with 8/52 precincts reporting. In the VA-04 Dem primary, it’s Donald McEachin 84.2%-Ella Ward 15.7% with 7/259 precincts reporting.

UPDATE 7:12 pm:  In the hotly-contested VA-02 GOP primary, it’s Scott Taylor 49.0%-Randy Forbes 43.5% with 12/180 precincts reporting. In the VA-04 GOP primary, Mike Wade is off to an early lead (65.1%-34.8%) over Jackee Gonzalez. In VA-06, Rep. Bob Goodlatte is cruising to victory early on, with 83.8% of the vote.

UPDATE 6:55 pm: Polls close in 5 minutes. See below for results as they come in from the State Board of Elections and VPAP.
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Today is primary election day in Virginia (polls are open from 6 am to 7 pm; vote at your regular polling location).  If you’re a Democrat who lives in Arlington, don’t forget to vote today for Erik Gutshall for County Board. Also, I recommend that 4th CD Democrats vote for Donald McEachin for Congress; and that 1st State Senate district Democrats vote for Shelly Simonds in the special election there. There are also Trump/Tea-publican primaries in the 2nd, 4th and 6th CDs…not sure which right wingnut  I dislike least, so whatever.

UPDATE 4:38 pm: I’m hearing turnout is very low in the 4th CD GOP primary and also in the 4th CD Dem primary (although perhaps not as low as for the GOP primary). Also hearing Randy Forbes could potentially lose his primary in the 2nd, but we’ll see…I’m skeptical. In Arlington, the problem for Erik Gutshall is that Republicans and “independents” are apparently turning out to vote – for Libby Garvey – in the DEMOCRATIC primary. We’ll see what happens, but I’ve been warning about this possibility for months…

  • Guus

    No lines today at the polling station 😉

    • That’s good for those who don’t like lines, but bad for those who DO like democracy… 🙁

      • RodMunch

        High turnout is going to kill Gutshall. Considering half of Democrats broke ranks against Howse, it’s bad news for Jay and Company

  • Audio: Sen. Adam Ebbin warns of low turnout in Arlington, with “many Republicans voting to influence the results.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZ1rFCQ7W3E&feature=youtu.be

    • jtb

      can Adam or Lowell name a single republican you know who voted in the primary today? I can’t. Dem’s put Garvey over the top not republicans. I did not see a single republican at the large victory party. We can do better than specious innuendos on this website. let us stay grounded in evidence, not conspiracy theories.

      • notjohnsmosby

        It will be easy enough to correlate after the voter database is updated in a week or so. Compare the entire list of voters in the primary to the info in the VAN and you will know how many Republicans voted.

        • Yep, will be very interesting.

      • Lets quote Libby Garvey herself on this one:

        “Garvey said Tuesday night that ‘we certainly drew some of those’ independent and Republican voters “and I think it’s a good thing, especially compared to what’s happening on the national scene.”

        • Voter

          Embrace being a Virginian.
          One of the few wonderful legacies of the Byrd machine is open primaries.

          As a democrat, I frequently vote in Repub primaries, just to cause a little bit of havoc. (For McCain in 2000, when W was ahead… It was hard to choose this past March, since they’re doing such a good job creating havoc for themselves)

          This was the only election that mattered, since Arlington’s Harold Stassen doesn’t have much of a chance… So all voters should be welcome.

  • #ImWithLibby

    Wow, does Adam know what republicans look like?
    That would be almost as clever as Trump knowing what Muslims look like.

    Everyone votes with the intention of “influencing the result ” even people who don’t look like republicans…

    • First of all, it’s not just Adam Ebbin, this information is coming from numerous people working polls in Arlington. Second, believe it or not, if you live in a community and/or represent that community, you do tend to know people’s political leanings. I mean, you don’t know if your neighbors are Dems or Republicans? Like, the Romney signs in 2012 or the Cooch signs in 2013 didn’t give it away? LOL

  • notjohnsmosby

    What’s the over/under on the VDE (ex-SBE) website crashing tonight?

    Has it already crashed?

    • I’d say it holds up tonight, given that there are only a few primaries and super-low turnout and interest in them…

  • notjohnsmosby

    Not looking good for Forbes at this point. He’s down 10 points with 48.9% of the vote in.

    • Forbes is toast. Good riddance, although Taylor won’t be any better.

      • notjohnsmosby

        It’s a mystery why no decent Dem ran in the 2nd. It’s an open seat, and the district is only R+3 or so.

        • Agreed, but apparently nobody thought they could hold it in 2018, which is most likely true. And that’s even assuming they won a super-tough race in 2016.

  • Gutshall Congratulates Garvey on Victory

    Arlington, VA– Tonight, Erik Gutshall conceded in the Democratic Primary for Arlington County Board and congratulated Libby Garvey on her victory. The following is a statement from Erik Gutshall:

    “I want to congratulate Libby Garvey and her supporters for their victory. This was a hard-fought campaign, and Arlington is stronger because of it. While Libby Garvey and I had some differences, it’s always been clear that Chairwoman Garvey loves this community, and my family and I are grateful for her nearly 20 years of service to Arlington.

    “Campaigns are about a battle of ideas where we outline our visions for the future. Though we didn’t always agree on how to achieve Arlington’s full potential, I look forward to continuing to work with Libby to address our rising school enrollment, improve our transportation network, revitalize our commercial sector, and ensure our community preserves its diversity by allowing families of all incomes the ability to live here.

    “Because we share these overarching goals, tonight I endorse Libby Garvey for County Board and look forward to voting for her in November. Now that the primary is over, it’s important that we come together as Democrats to ensure we keep Arlington blue, from the White House to the School House. I look forward to working to elect Democrats in the fall, and to continuing to serve the community I love so dearly on the Planning Commission.

    “Last but not least, I want to thank my family, friends, and supporters for their generosity throughout this campaign, and the thousands of voters who placed their faith in me today with their votes. When I announced in January, never did I imagine I’d meet so many people and make so many lasting friends. I will never forget the kindness and trust shown to me by so many.”

  • Senator McEachin Wins Fourth Congressional District Primary;
    Prepares to Take on Republicans in the General Election

    HENRICO – Senator A. Donald McEachin today won the Democratic primary in Virginia’s Fourth Congressional District. He made the following statement:

    “I want to take this opportunity to thank my supporters and volunteers for all their hard work over the past three months. I want to thank the voters for expressing their confidence in me. I want to thank Dr. Ella Ward for a hard-fought campaign that has made me a better and stronger candidate.

    “Now we begin the general election. I am eager to point out the differences between my opponent and me. Mike Wade belongs to the party of Donald Trump and has publicly embraced him. On the other hand, I am proud to stand for progressive values. I want to bring people together, not divide them. I want us to work together to make this country prosperous and secure, not to isolate and denigrate different groups.

    “As we go into the fall, I will keep talking with voters about the need to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure, bring jobs to the district, improve our public education system, ensure access to quality, affordable health care, keep our communities safe, expand access to broadband Internet, and better address climate change.

    “We have a lot of work to do to make sure we move this country forward. We need to expand voting rights, defend civil rights for all, and trust women to make their own healthcare decisions. We need to build on President Obama’s legacy, not destroy it. I will continue traveling the district and listening to voters so that together, we can make all of these things happen.”

  • Primary turnout – highs and lows. It was all pathetically low, but Arlington was the least bad at 9.6%. The 4th CD GOP primary turnout was incredibly low, with ZERO ballots cast in in nine Richmond City precincts!

    Source: VPAP

    https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7461/27658128356_8a2a7206ef_b.jpg

  • Bye bye Jay

    Gutshall didn’t lose. Fisette and Kip lost. 80% odds that Jay calls it quits by New Years. He’s going to get trounced in a primary, and rightfully so. Let’s flush the last vestiges of the Zimmerman era down the toilet.