UPDATE 9:18 pm: Oh yeah, forgot to mention that Ben Tribbett predicted all the results correctly tonight (Taylor, Wade, McEachin, Mason, Garvey), other than the margin of victory for Libby Garvey in Arlington. On the latter, I actually was much closer to the actual result, as I was thinking somewhere in the 60/40 or 55/45 range, and it ended up at 55/45.
UPDATE 9:00 pm: According to ACDC, “Garvey won 55 percent (8,362 votes) to Gutshall’s 45 percent (6,878 votes) with 11 percent voter turnout (15,240 voters).” What I’d be curious to know is what the results were among Democrats only, also how many Republicans turned out to vote for Garvey. My guess is it would have been super close if it had just been Dems voting, but since Virginia doesn’t have party registration, there’s no way ACDC could close the primary to Dems only.
UPDATE 8:02 pm: With 42/53 precincts reporting in Arlington, it’s Libby Garvey 57%-Erik Gutshall 43%. Looks like Scott Taylor will beat Randy Forbes by around 13 points. Donald McEachin should end up winning with more than 70% of the vote. Mike Wade continues to hold a nearly 30-point lead with 63% of precincts reporting. And Bob Good…er, BADlatte should win by 55 points or so.
UPDATE 7:52 pm: By the way, I find it fascinating how badly Randy Forbes is losing to Scott Taylor (53%-40% with 89% of precincts reporting), given that current VA-02 Congressman Scott Rigell endorsed Forbes.
UPDATE 7:45 pm: So at this point, we can confidently say that Donald McEachin will win the Democratic nomination in VA-04; Monty Mason will win the Democratic nomination in the 1st State Senate district; Libby Garvey will win the Democratic nomination in the Arlington County Board primary; Scott Taylor will knock off Randy Forbes in VA-02; Mike Wade will beat Jackee Gonzalez in VA-04; Bob Goodlatte will romp over Harry Griego in VA-06.
UPDATE 7:42 pm: With 75% of precincts reporting in VA-02 GOP, it’s looking really bad for Rep. Randy Forbes, as he trails Scott Taylor by 12 points. In VA-04 GOP, with 45% of precincts reporting, Mike Wade continues to cruise by a nearly 2:1 margin over Jackee Gonzalez.
UPDATE 7:40 pm: With 29/53 precincts reporting in Arlington, Libby Garvey leads handily (57%-43%) over Erik Gutshall. Looks like Garvey should win reelection. Bummer for all the Gutshall supporters, myself included, out there…
UPDATE 7:38 pm: I had thought that Donald McEachin would win 70%-30% or something like that, but so far he’s winning even BIGGER. Right now, it’s soon-to-be Congressman Donald McEachin 79%-Ella Ward 21% with 45% of precincts reporting. 🙂
UPDATE 7:36 pm: Finally some results from Arlington’s County Board Democratic primary, as incumbent Libby Garvey leads Erik Gutshall 500 (55.7%)-397 (44.3%).
UPDATE 7:33 pm: With 108/180 precincts reporting in VA-02 GOP, it’s looking good for Scott Taylor, who’s up 14,372 (52.0%)-11,305 (40.9%) over (soon-to-be-former?) Rep. Randy Forbes. In VA-04 GOP, Mike Wade continues to cruise (61%-39%) with 80/259 precincts reporting. And Bob BADlatte continues to crush his Republican primary opponent, Harry Griego.
UPDATE 7:31 pm: With 45/52 precincts reporting, Monty Mason just jumped ahead of Shelly Simonds, 57.1%-42.9%. Looks like Mason will pull this one out.
UPDATE 7:28 pm: With 39/52 precincts reporting, it’s Simonds 2,236 (50.49%)-Mason 2,193 (49.51%). Tighter than a tick, as Dan Rather used to say! LOL As for VA-04, Donald McEachin continues to cruise (76%-24%), with 58/259 precincts reporting.
UPDATE 7:22 pm: In the VA-02 GOP primary, it’s now Taylor 50.76%-Forbes 41.9% with 35% of precincts reporting. Looking good for Taylor so far (good riddance to Forbes if he loses; the guy’s bonkers). Oh, and Rep. Goodlatte (VA-06) continues to cruise, as does Mike Wade (VA-04 GOP).
UPDATE 7:17 pm: It’s now Simonds 55.3%-Mason 44.7% in Senate District 1, with 22/52 precincts reporting (but very few votes, just 260-210!). Also note, there seems to be a discrepancy between VPAP and the SBE. The latter has it at Simonds 51.5%-Mason 48.5% with 22/52 precincts reporting. Also, the raw vote totals are different; SBE reports Simonds 1,304-Mason 1,230. Looks like VPAP is screwed up.
UPDATE 7:14 pm: In the 1st State Senate district Dem primary, it’s Simonds 55.3%-Mason 44.7% with 8/52 precincts reporting. In the VA-04 Dem primary, it’s Donald McEachin 84.2%-Ella Ward 15.7% with 7/259 precincts reporting.
UPDATE 7:12 pm: In the hotly-contested VA-02 GOP primary, it’s Scott Taylor 49.0%-Randy Forbes 43.5% with 12/180 precincts reporting. In the VA-04 GOP primary, Mike Wade is off to an early lead (65.1%-34.8%) over Jackee Gonzalez. In VA-06, Rep. Bob Goodlatte is cruising to victory early on, with 83.8% of the vote.
UPDATE 6:55 pm: Polls close in 5 minutes. See below for results as they come in from the State Board of Elections and VPAP.
Today is primary election day in Virginia (polls are open from 6 am to 7 pm; vote at your regular polling location). If you’re a Democrat who lives in Arlington, don’t forget to vote today for Erik Gutshall for County Board. Also, I recommend that 4th CD Democrats vote for Donald McEachin for Congress; and that 1st State Senate district Democrats vote for Shelly Simonds in the special election there. There are also Trump/Tea-publican primaries in the 2nd, 4th and 6th CDs…not sure which right wingnut I dislike least, so whatever.
UPDATE 4:38 pm: I’m hearing turnout is very low in the 4th CD GOP primary and also in the 4th CD Dem primary (although perhaps not as low as for the GOP primary). Also hearing Randy Forbes could potentially lose his primary in the 2nd, but we’ll see…I’m skeptical. In Arlington, the problem for Erik Gutshall is that Republicans and “independents” are apparently turning out to vote – for Libby Garvey – in the DEMOCRATIC primary. We’ll see what happens, but I’ve been warning about this possibility for months…