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Virginia House Districts Won by Hillary Clinton Highlight Most Vulnerable GOP Delegates for 2017

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As you can see from the following graph, Virginia Republicans currently – in spite of their outrageous gerrymandering – hold 11 Virginia House of Delegates seats won by Hillary Clinton a few weeks ago. Those Republican delegates are Jim LeMunyon (67th), Dave Albo (42nd), Tag Greason (32nd), Jackson Miller (50th), Mark Dudenhefer (2nd), “Sideshow Bob” Marshall (13th), David Yancey (94th), Scott Lingamfelter (31st), Robert Bloxom Jr. (100th), Randy Minchew (10th) and Rich Anderson (51st). Another two – Ron Villanueva (21st) and Tim Hugo (40th) – hold districts where Clinton barely lost. In theory, if Democrats could pick up the 11 seats won by Hillary Clinton, we’d be at 45 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates, within striking distance of taking back the House. And that’s BEFORE the Supreme Court rules on a Virginia racial gerrymandering case they are now considering.

Also check out the next graphic (click to “embiggen”); this one shows Virginia House of Delegates districts ranked by the percentage Mark Herring won in 2013, so it could be a better proxy for the 2017 elections (although it all comes down to turnout/Democratic “dropoff”; in theory, the first graphic could be just as good a proxy, but only if Democratic “dropoff” is proportionately the same or better than Republican “dropoff”). Again, note the most vulnerable Republican Delegates — LeMunyon, Greason, Albo, Lingamfelter, “Sideshow Bob” Marshall, Randy Minchew, Ron Villanueva, Jackson Miller, Rich Anderson, David Yancey, Robert Bloxom Jr., etc. Sensing a pattern here?

So…now the key is for Democrats to recruit strong challengers – and for state and national Democrats to support them financially and in every other way – at LEAST for the most vulnerable 11 Republicans holding down Hillary Clinton districts, plus as many others as possible in districts that Mark Herring won (or got around 50% in), etc.  With 34 seats now, Democrats need to gain 16 in order to get to 50 and make that chamber a tossup. Is that possible in 2017?  Probably not, although let’s see what the Supreme Court has to say, and regardless, let’s try to get as close as we can in 2017, on course to taking back the House of Delegates in 2019 if at all possible.

By the way, it’s important to point out that after years of losses at the state level (note that Republicans, the Koch brothers, etc. “got it” on this and reaped the huge benefits; Democratic “leaders” were asleep at the switch, despite being warned by people like…well, yours truly), Democrats have been severely harmed here in Virginia and across the country. Today, after the disastrous 2016 election (in which Trump is going to lose by 2.6 million votes in the popular vote yet win the Electoral College, barring the unlikely eventuality of that body actually doing its job and stopping an unhinged demagogue from becoming President),  making gains/winning back state legislatures is absolutely crucial going forward. And it all starts in Virginia 2017 — just a few weeks away. Let’s do it!

  • HOUSE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS CALLS FOR NON-PARTISAN REDISTRICTING IN 2017 LEGISLATIVE SESSION

    While the Supreme Court of the United States considers redistricting cases from North Carolina and Virginia, the Virginia House Democratic Caucus is calling for the creation of a nonpartisan redistricting commission to be allowed a floor vote in the House of Delegates during the upcoming 2017 legislative session.

    “In the past, non-partisan redistricting legislation has passed the Senate of Virginia, only to die a vote-less death in a House committee. We are asking House Republican leadership for the simple act of allowing floor debate and vote on a nonpartisan redistricting commission that will end unconstitutional gerrymandering this session,” said Delegate David Toscano, House Democratic Leader.

    “The citizens of Virginia deserve the ability to choose their elected officials at the ballot box, but right now, much of the Commonwealth has gerrymandered districts that allow the politicians to choose their voters. This is unacceptable and must end,” said Delegate Charniele Herring, House Democratic Caucus Chair.

    Virginia voted twice for President Barack Obama, voted for Hillary Clinton, and has not elected a Republican to state wide office since 2009. However; gerrymandered districts have allowed for a Republican majority in the House of Delegates.

  • Stephanie Elizabeth Carter

    So glad to see that the districts where the Prince William Progress Coalition candidates are running are where the GOP is vulnerable in 2017!

  • Kenny Allen Boddye

    As Virginians we have the unique opportunity next year to serve as the first electoral answer to this year’s divisive and often-toxic General Election Season. As Stephanie stated below, the Prince William Progress Coalition – a progressive slate of candidates running in the 13th, 31st, 50th and 51st – will be fielding opposition to seats featured in this article. Tom Brock of Progressive House VA is also running in the 21st, and is poised to build upon the momentum built this year to finally win a Democratic victory there.

    We need to be very clear – Virginia has no “off-year” elections. Every year is important, and it’s time to fight for progress. If you want to turn your feelings surrounding this year into something to be proud of, join us in that fight:

    Prince William Progress Coalition:
    https://www.facebook.com/KenBoddyeVA/
    https://www.facebook.com/leecarterva/
    https://www.facebook.com/elizabethguzmanva/
    https://www.facebook.com/kahlonVA/

    http://www.PrinceWilliamProgressCoalition.com

    Tom Brock:
    https://www.facebook.com/VoteTomBrock/

    Progressive House Virginia:
    http://www.progressivehouseva.com/

    • “We need to be very clear – Virginia has no “off-year” elections. Every year is important, and it’s time to fight for progress.”

      Couldn’t agree more – so glad you understand this and are working to make it happen! 🙂

  • ragekage117

    100% dead on. What happened with those hundreds of millions spent by Clinton, for instance? Invest $10,000 a year into every delegate’s seat, all 100; have the local parties use it to help fund efforts for community service, door knocking, meeting people. No district should have anyone running unopposed. We need to find people to match local politics and strike a coordinated and winning message.

    • Exactly!

      • ragekage117

        To go further on that, with that money, I’d buy signs- made in district. Hold meetings- at local restaurants, or catered by them. Run our districts and messages from the bottom up. Go out and see and BE with people; my hero in regard to this is still Tom Perriello. He only just lost in the landslide of 2010, and I don’t understand why more people didn’t take that message to heart. But then again, it’s awful hard to bust ass like he did.