Home 2017 Races The Question for 2017: To What Extent Can Virginia Dems Turn Our...

The Question for 2017: To What Extent Can Virginia Dems Turn Our 3% “Win Rate” (2011-2015) Around?

1111
6
SHARE

Interesting analysis by Activate Virginia which finds that:

In the 2011, 2013, and 2015 cycles, incumbent House Democrats have had success defending against Republican challengers (89% Win Rate). Yet Democrats can’t seem to win open seats (13% WR) or in challenges against Republican incumbents (3% WR).

So this is the (huge) challenge facing Virginia Democrats in 2017 (and 2019 and…), even with the surge of anti-Trump energy, organizing, candidates, etc. out there. Yes, at the moment, prospects for Virginia Democrats in 2017 look a lot better than the 2011-2015 results would imply. But to really turn that abysmal, historical 3% “win rate” (against Republican incumbents in 2011, 2013 and 2015) around, we are going to need a bunch of things to come together: strong candidates, much higher financial and non-financial support than we’ve seen in the past, and more broadly an effective translation of anti-Trump sentiment into effective political action – most importantly, VOTING by people who normally just show up in presidential election years – locally here in Virginia.

For now, I like a lot of what I’m seeing (although I do wonder if all the different groups that have sprung up the past few months are going to “play well” – let alone effectively – together), but based on the historical evidence, I’d chalk myself up as no more than “cautiously optimistic” at the moment…

  • Elaine Owens

    I agree that being cautiously optimistic is the best we can feel for now, given the track record of the DPVA in non-presidential years. Sadly, local parties in areas that are Republican too often have atrophied to the point that organization is weak or non-existent. My guess is that it comes from decades of neglect of those areas that aren’t “easy pickin’s.” I’m old enough to remember when Vance Wilkins, as GOP leader in the House, went around the state finding strong candidates to run, raising money, organizing locals, winning seats over several election cycles until the GOP was a majority in the House…and Wilkins became speaker. It’s time to take advantage of the energy present this year, but at the same time, build a stronger party structure for the future. One election cycle isn’t enough. We have to be in this for the long haul. One place to start is to find a message all Democratic factions can agree on and stop all the in-fighting.

    • Agreed – this definitely needs to be for more than one election cycle, we need a much stronger party structure, etc.

  • Edward N Virginia

    HUH?!

    You say, ‘we’ need

    QUOTE
    …. more broadly an effective translation of anti-Trump sentiment into effective political action – most importantly, VOTING by people who normally just show up in presidential election years – locally here in Virginia.
    UNQUOTE

    DUDE! that sounds ridiculous when we read it and even more so when we say it out loud!

    Do you actually believe that all, or even most, recent non-voters in local elections, across all Virginia Districts, or a majority of Virginia Districts, are Democratic voters? Where are your data to substantiate this claim?

    I can assure you that in many Districts a plurality of recent non-voters in local District elections are NOT motivated, and would NOT BE motivated, to vote for a candidate primarily because they have an ‘anti-Trump’ message. So, that begs the question: what message(s) are key? And that begs another question, since you want a ‘stronger [we presume centralized] party structure’: what message from a ‘stronger centralized party structure will sweep in majorities in urban and rural districts? in wealthy and poor districts? in largely hard labor-economy districts as well as info-economy districts?

    We need data! or you’re just a blibber-blabber-tweedle-twaddle like Trump, but less convincing!

    • Uhhhh….

      • Edward N Virginia

        Neanderthal grunts …. very nice … that’ll certainly win elections, NOT!

  • Elaine Owens

    Gee, Lowell woke up a troll, who is evidently a “a blibber-blabber-tweedle-twaddle,” whatever that is. Haha