Home 2019 Elections The Question for 2017: To What Extent Can Virginia Dems Turn Our...

The Question for 2017: To What Extent Can Virginia Dems Turn Our 3% “Win Rate” (2011-2015) Around?


Interesting analysis by Activate Virginia which finds that:

In the 2011, 2013, and 2015 cycles, incumbent House Democrats have had success defending against Republican challengers (89% Win Rate). Yet Democrats can’t seem to win open seats (13% WR) or in challenges against Republican incumbents (3% WR).

So this is the (huge) challenge facing Virginia Democrats in 2017 (and 2019 and…), even with the surge of anti-Trump energy, organizing, candidates, etc. out there. Yes, at the moment, prospects for Virginia Democrats in 2017 look a lot better than the 2011-2015 results would imply. But to really turn that abysmal, historical 3% “win rate” (against Republican incumbents in 2011, 2013 and 2015) around, we are going to need a bunch of things to come together: strong candidates, much higher financial and non-financial support than we’ve seen in the past, and more broadly an effective translation of anti-Trump sentiment into effective political action – most importantly, VOTING by people who normally just show up in presidential election years – locally here in Virginia.

For now, I like a lot of what I’m seeing (although I do wonder if all the different groups that have sprung up the past few months are going to “play well” – let alone effectively – together), but based on the historical evidence, I’d chalk myself up as no more than “cautiously optimistic” at the moment…

There's no paywall on Blue Virginia, and we definitely want to keep it that way! If you want to help support our work, you can donate here - thanks! Also, you can sign up for our weekly email list here.