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Former UVA Climate Scientist Michael Mann on Hurricane Harvey and Man-Made Climate Change

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Just remember that Republican Ken Cuccinelli persecuted this guy, as did a bunch more climate science deniers (almost all Republicans). Any further questions?

P.S. Note for those who have never read a blog before — the following is a “blockquote,” from former UVA Professor Michael Mann’s Facebook page. The guy is brilliant, knows this stuff inside out, and is well worth listening to…

What can we say about the role of climate change in the unprecedented disaster that is unfolding in Houston with Hurricane #Harvey?

There are certain climate change-related factors that we can, with great confidence, say worsened the flooding.

Sea level rise attributable to climate change (some is due to coastal subsidence due to human disturbance e.g. oil drilling) is more than half a foot over the past few decades (see http://www.insurancejournal.com/…/sou…/2017/05/31/452704.htm for a decent discussion).

That means that the storm surge was a half foot higher than it would have been just decades ago, meaning far more flooding and destruction.

In addition to that, sea surface temperatures in the region have risen about 0.5C (close to 1F) over the past few decades, from roughly 30C (86F) to 30.5C (87F), which contributed to the very warm sea surface temperatures (30.5-31 C or 87-88F). There is a simple thermodynamic relationship known as the “Clausius-Clapeyron equation, see e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/…/Clausius%E2%80%93Clapeyron_relat…) that tells us there is a roughly 3% increase in average atmospheric moisture content for each 0.5C (~1F) of warming. Sea surface temperatures in the area where Harvey intensified were 0.5-1C warmer than current-day average temperatures, which translates to 1-1.5C warmer than the ‘average’ temperatures a few decades ago. That means 3-5% more moisture in the atmosphere.

That large amount of moisture meant the potential for much greater rainfalls and greater flooding.

The combination of coastal flooding and heavy rainfall is responsible for the devastating flooding that Houston is experiencing.

Not only are the surface waters of the Gulf unusually warm right now, but there is a deep layer of warm water that Harvey was able to feed upon when it intensified at near record pace as it neared the coast. Human-caused warming is penetrating down into the ocean warming not just the surface but creating deeper layers of warm water in the Gulf and elsewhere.

So Harvey was almost certainly more intense than it would have been in the absence of human- caused warming, which means stronger winds, more wind damage, and a larger storm surge (as an example of how this works, we have shown that climate change has led to a dramatic increase in storm surge risk in New York City, making devastating events like Superstorm #Sandy more likely (http://www.pnas.org/content/112/41/12610.full).

Finally, the more tenuous but potentially relevant climate factors: part of what has made Harvey such a devastating storm is the way it has stalled right near the coast, continuing to pummel Houston and surrounding regions with a seemingly endless deluge which will likely top out at nearly 4 feet of rainfall over a several days-long period before it is done.

The stalling is due to very weak prevailing winds which are failing to steer the storm off to sea, allowing it to spin around and wobble back and forth ike a top with no direction. This pattern, in turn, is associated with a greatly expanded subtropical high pressure system over much of the U.S. right now, with the jet stream pushed well to the north. This pattern of subtropical expansion is predicted in model simulations of human-caused climate change.

More tenuous, but possibly relevant still, is the fact that very persistent, nearly ‘stationary’ summer weather patterns of this sort, where weather anomalies (both high pressure dry hot regions and low-pressure stormy/rainy regions) stay locked in place for many days at a time, appears to be favored by human-caused climate change. We recently published on this phenomenon: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep45242

In conclusion, while we cannot say climate change “caused” hurricane Harvey (that is an ill-posed question), we can say that it exacerbate several characteristics of the storm in a way that greatly increased the risk of damage and loss of life.

Climate change worsened the impact of Hurricane Harvey.

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  • True Blue

    I love it when Michael Mann “…blinded me with science,” now and then.

    However, at least one VA House GOP is hosting a fundraiser about fake science and welcoming a CFACT propagandist “to confuse the public about the urgent need for political action to address the global warming crisis driven by burning fossil fuels.” These fake scientists need to be exposed for “claims to feature interviews with scientists, not among the respected mainstream climate science community, but rather a collection of washed-up scientists with no expertise in climate science, or a biased view based on ideological or industry-funded bias.” see http://climatehustler.org/

    • jim b

      I wonder what the average knuckleheaded republican has to gain in refusing to believe science. The fossil fuel oligarchs are not going to share the wealth with them. Even the religious freaks go along too.

      • True Blue

        In my locale, GOP votes are all about three g’s – gods, guns, and gays. It wouldn’t matter if they agreed with you on 95% of the other issues. . .

      • Nada. They are just useful idiots

      • woodrowfan

        it’s tribal. “Lie-brals” believe it, so they must not.

  • Geoff

    Mann is a total fraud. Simply google his now infamous Hockey Stick.
    That Billions of taxpayer dollars are wasted on an army of these shysters is criminal.
    Fortunately the climate scam is unravelling rapidly. What we will leave for our grandchildren and great grandchildren will be the narrative of wasteful self serving indulgences led by the likes of Mann.