Over at his new home, the New York Times, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com fame is out with his latest House forecast. Overall, it’s not pretty, with Republicans having a “two-in-three chance of claiming a majority of House seats in November.” Also, after 100,000 model simulations, Nate Silver forecasts 225 Republicans and 210 Democrats in the House of Representatives next January. Let’s hope he’s wrong, but he’s usually right.
Anyway, what about Virginia? According to Nate, the “likely takeover” chances for Republicans are:
*5th CD (Tom Perriello vs. Robert Hurt and Jeffrey Clark): 88%
*2nd CD (Nye vs. Rigell and Golden): 59%
*11th CD (Connolly vs. Fimian): 24%
*9th CD (Boucher vs. Griffith): 22%
*3rd and 8th CDs (Scott and Moran vs. 2 guys you never heard of): SAFE
In sum, it looks like Nye and Perriello are in trouble, the other Democrats are looking pretty good. So, what do you think of these ratings? I don’t have a model of my own, but it’s hard to argue with Nate Silver.