Home 2013 races PPP 2013 Poll: Warner Would Romp; Bolling Stronger than Cuccinelli vs. T-Mac

PPP 2013 Poll: Warner Would Romp; Bolling Stronger than Cuccinelli vs. T-Mac


Public Policy Polling is out with their look at possible candidates and matchups for 2013 here in Virginia. The highlights are:

1. If Mark Warner wants to be governor again, all he has to do is say so. Warner has a 2:1 approval rating (52%-26%), and “leads Bolling 53-32 and Cuccinelli 53-33.” In other words, it’s game over for Republicans if Warner runs. Also, if Warner runs, presumably Democrats would have an excellent shot at winning “downballot” – LG, AG, and House of Delegates races – as well. So…Draft Mark Warner for Governor 2013? 🙂

2. Bill Bolling would be a significantly stronger gubernatorial candidate for Republicans than Ken Cuccinelli. Bolling leads Terry McAuliffe 36%-34% (+2 points), while Cuccinelli trails McAuliffe 41%-36% (-5 points). That’s a 7-point advantage to Bolling compared to Cuccinelli. But will Republicans be smart enough to nominate Bolling, not Cuccinelli? That brings us to…

3. “Cuccinelli continues to be the overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination next year. He’s polling at 51% to 23% for Bolling and 4% for Salahi with 22% of voters undecided.” Even worse for Bolling, Cuccinelli’s “appeal to the far right wing of the GOP will make him difficult to defeat in a primary. Among ‘very conservative’ voters he’s at 64% to 20% for Bolling.” In other words, barring an enormous turnaround by Bolling, he will NOT be the Republican nominee for Virginia governor next year. Ken Cuccinelli will be.

4. I’m not sure why PPP, which does great work, polled Tom Perriello – who I haven’t even heard the tiniest peep is thinking of running for governor in 2013 – and not Chap Petersen, who I most certainly HAVE heard “peeps” about running. Odd.

4a. Also, who cares about Tareq Salah? His candidacy is a complete joke.

5. As for approval ratings, other than Mark Warner, nobody’s particularly setting the house on fire. Cuccinelli’s at minus 7 (30%-37%), as is McAuliffe (13%-20%). Bolling’s at plus 2 (36%-34%) — meh.

Bottom line, according to PPP: If Warner runs, it would be a “daunting challenge for

any Republican.”
If not, then “Democrats’ chances are fifty-fifty otherwise, but they have to be hoping to face Ken Cuccinelli.” That sounds about right to me.

  • Dan Sullivan

    Looking less and less likely.

    Here’s what it would take: A disgraced Brian Moran removed from the DPVA Chairmanship so that when the Republicans run those inevitable sound bites, T-Mac can credibly say: consider the source.

  • Elaine in Roanoke

    In the approval-disapproval numbers, McAuliffe’s biggest problem is apparent: 13%-20%, meaning fewer than half of those polled have an opinion one way or another. Terry needs to introduce himself quickly to Virginians other than Democrats. Then, we can actually gauge whether he can win or not.

    I also can’t understand why Chap Petersen wasn’t in the poll and Perriello was.

  • ValerieInRke

    the best way to the White House. Being governor of Virginia twice and with Senate experience under his belt creates a very appealing resume. That is what I’ve heard and it sure makes sense.

  • kindler

    It’s like one of those movies where you want the unpopular, boring fat kid to beat the obnoxious, popular skinny jerk — you know, Animal House, Revenge of the Nerds, Bad News Bears…

  • mts

    If Warner is elected Governor, who would pick the new Senator?  I presume he wouldn’t resign his Senate seat until a few nanoseconds before being sworn in, so he would pick the replacement, true?