Home 2015 elections Early Read on the 2015 Battle for Control of the Virginia State...

Early Read on the 2015 Battle for Control of the Virginia State Senate

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Sadly, the overwhelming number of State Senate districts are not seriously in play this year. As you can see, 26/40 seats are “safe,” with 7/40 “likely” holds, leaving just 7/40 for either “tossup” (1 district) or “lean” (6 districts). In other words, right now it looks like a status quo election for the most part, which would mean Republicans maintain (or slightly increase) their 21-19 control of the State Senate. The challenge for Democrats will be holding all of the seats they currently hold, including a few tough ones (retiring Sen. John Colgan’s seat; Sen. Lynwood Lewis and Sen. John Edwards), while picking up a Republican-held seat (maybe Dick Black’s?).

SD 1 (57% Mark Herring district in 2013): Sen. John Miller (D) vs. Mark Matney (R): Leans Democratic Hold

SD 2 (68% Mark Herring district): Sen. Mamie Locke (D) unopposed: Safe Democratic.

SD 3 (64% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Tommy Norment (R) unopposed: Safe Republican.

SD 4 (61% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Ryan McDougle (R) unopposed: Safe Republican.

SD 5 (73% Mark Herring district): Sen. Kenny Alexander (D) unopposed: Safe Democratic.

SD 6 (53% Mark Herring district): Sen. Lynwood Lewis (D) vs. Richard Ottinger (R): Leans Slightly Democratic Hold.

SD 7 (53% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Frank Wagner (R) vs. Gary McCollum (D): Leans Republican Hold.

SD 8 (55% Mark Obenshain district): Dave Belote (D) vs. Bill DeSteph (R) or Craig Hudgins (R) for retiring Sen. Jeff McWaters’ (R) seat: Likely Republican Hold.

SD 9 (72% Mark Herring district): Sen. Donald McEachin (D) unopposed: Safe Democratic.

SD 10 (51% Mark Herring district): Glen Sturtevant (R) vs. either Emily Francis (D), Dan Gecker (D) or Alex McMurtrie (D) for retiring Sen. John Watkins’ (R) seat: Leans Republican Hold.

SD 11 (58% Mark Obenshain district): Amanda Chase (R), Sen. Steve Martin (R) or Barry Moore, Jr. (R) vs. no Democratic candidate: Safe Republican.

SD 12 (56% Mark Obenshain district): Siobhan Dunnavant (R), Vincent Haley (R), Bill Janis (R) and Edward S Whitlock, III (R) vs. no Democratic candidate for retiring Sen. Walter Stosch’s (R) seat: Safe Republican.

SD 13 (51% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Dick Black (R) vs. Jill McCabe (D): Leans Slightly Republican Hold.

SD 14 (61% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. John Cosgrove (R) or William Haley (R) vs. no Democratic candidate: Safe Republican.

SD 15 (64% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Frank Ruff (R) unopposed: Safe Republican.

SD 16 (69% Mark Herring district): Sen. Rosalyn Dance (D) or Joseph Preston (D) vs. no Republican candidate: Safe Democratic, although if Joe Morrissey runs as an “independent” and there’s a Republican as well, that rating could change.

SD 17 (53% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Bryce Reeves (R) vs. Traci Dippert (D): Likely Republican Hold.

SD 18 (65% Mark Herring district): Sen. Louise Lucas (D) unopposed. Safe Democratic.

SD 19 (69% Mark Obenshain district): Michael Lawrence Hamlar (D) vs. David Suetterlein (R) for retiring Sen. Ralph Smith’s seat: Safe Republican.

SD 20 (59% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Bill Stanley (R) vs. Kimberley Adkins (D) and Independent Green Elaine Hildebrandt: Likely Republican Hold.

SD 21 (51% Mark Herring district): Sen. John Edwards (D) vs. Nancy Dye (R): Lean Slightly Democratic Hold.

SD 22 (60% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Tom Garrett (R) unopposed: Safe Republican.

SD 23 (74% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Steve Newman (R) unopposed: Safe Republican.

SD 24 (68% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Emmett Hanger (R) vs. Dan Moxley (R) and Marshall Pattie (R) vs. no Democratic candidate: Safe Republican.

SD 25 (56% Mark Herring district): Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) unopposed: Safe Democratic.

SD 26 (65% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Mark Obenshain (R) vs. April Moore (D): Safe Republican.

SD 27 (62% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Jill Vogel (R) unopposed: Safe Republican.

SD 28 (59% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Richard Stuart (R) unopposed: Safe Republican.

SD 29 (59% Mark Herring district): Atif Qarni (D), Michael Futrell (D) or Jeremy McPike (D) vs. Hal Parrish (R) for retiring Sen. Chuck Colgan’s (D) seat: Slight Democratic Lean if Qarni’s the nominee; possibly a tossup if Futrell is the nominee; lean Republican pickup if McPike’s the nominee for these reasons.

SD 30 (69% Mark Herring district): Sen. Adam Ebbin (D) unopposed: Safe Democratic.

SD 31 (65% Mark Herring district): Sen. Barbara Favola (D) unopposed: Safe Democratic.

SD 32 (65% Mark Herring district): Sen. Janet Howell (D) unopposd: Safe Democratic.

SD 33 (60% Mark Herring district): Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D) vs. Stephen Hollingshead (R): Likely Democratic hold.

SD 34 (59% Mark Herring district): Sen. Chap Petersen (D) unopposed: Safe Democratic.

SD 35 (69% Mark Herring district): Sen. Dick Saslaw (D) unopposed: Safe Democratic.

SD 36 (63% Mark Herring district): Scott Surovell (D) vs. Jerry Foreman (R) for retiring Sen. Toddy Puller’s (D) seat: Likely Democratic hold.

SD 37 (58% Mark Herring district): Sen. Dave Marsden (D) unopposed: Safe Democratic.

SD 38 (68% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Ben Chafin (R) unoppposed: Safe Republican.

SD 39 (59% Mark Herring district): Sen. George Barker (D) vs. Joe Murray (R): Likely Democratic hold.

SD 40 (74% Mark Obenshain district): Sen. Bill Carrico (R) unopposed: Safe Republican.