Home Donald Trump Should Virginia GOP Members of Congress Be Afraid Donald Trump? Probably Not.

Should Virginia GOP Members of Congress Be Afraid Donald Trump? Probably Not.


Short answer, not particularly. Here’s some data and other points to ponder when considering whether or not any Virginia member of the U.S. House of Representatives should be staying up nights worrying that Trump will come and git them next November.

  • Trump got 212,402 votes in HD-1; Rep. Rob Wittman (R) got 230,213 votes — around 18,000 MORE than Trump got.
  • Trump got 156,283 votes in HD-2; Rep. Scott Taylor (R) got 190,475 votes — around 34,000 MORE than Trump got.
  • Trump got 195,190 votes in HD-5; Rep. Tom Garrett (R) got 207,758 votes — around 12,000 MORE than Trump got.
  • Trump got 206,303 votes in HD-6; Rep. Bob BADlatte (R) got 225,471 votes — around 19,000 MORE than Trump got.
  • Trump got 198,032 votes in HD-7; Rep. Dave Brat (R) got 218,057 votes — around 20,000 MORE than Trump got.
  • Trump got 217,837 votes in HD-9; Rep. Morgan Griffith (R) got 212,838 votes — ok, finally, someone who got fewer votes (although not by a lot) than Trump got.
  • Trump got 170,580 votes in HD-10; Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) got 210,791 votes, around 40,000 (!) more than Trump got.
  • In sum, the only Republican Congresscrook who received fewer votes than “Cheeto Von Gropensnatcher” did in November was Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-9th). So perhaps Griffith should be a bit concerned – or not. But based purely on vote totals, it’s not immediately clear that any of the other Republicans should be losing any sleep over threats by Trump to go after them politically.
  • Of course, most of these Republican – other than Comstock (in a district won by Hillary Clinton) and possibly Taylor (in a purple-ish district) – are more worried about primaries from their right possibly “taking them out” than they are about a general election challenge by a Democrat in their “gerrymandered-for-incumbents’-protection” districts. So, yeah, I guess IF Trump is still president by next spring (e.g., not impeached, in prison, whatever) and IF he wants to pour resources into supporting even farther-right challengers to the right wingnuts already in these seats, he could try to do that, but…not really seeing it.
  • Also important to note is that Trump’s approval rating is abysmal (40%-54%), with no particular sign that things are going to get better for him — and actually, lots of signs that they could get worse, even much worse for him.
  • Bottom line: if I were House Republicans, I wouldn’t be particularly worried about Trump coming after them. I WOULD be worried about the country, and potentially losing Republican control of the House to Democrats in November 2018 if they keep pushing wildly unpopular shit like this, possibly shutting down the government, getting nothing accomplished, etc.



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