Take these numbers however you’d like – believe them, don’t believe them, grains or pillars of salt, whatever – but no question they’re an interesting contrast with Ralph Northam’s “internals,” which reportedly have him up around 9 points, and the recent Washington Post poll which had Perriello up (by 2 points among “likely voters” and 6 points among registered voters). Also note that the trend lines are different in the Perriello “internal” than in the public polling, with the “internal” showing the race tightening rapidly in recent weeks while the public polls have showed the race to be neck and neck for months now. So, definitely different narratives, although both the Northam and Perriello “internals” DO show the race tightening, and there’s been very little public polling, so who knows what’s up there? Personally, I think this really comes down to trying to figure out the “universe” of voters on June 13 – how large and what’s its composition; and that ain’t easy to do! With that, here’s the memo from Perriello’s pollster…
P.S. I’d definitely expect undecided voters to break for Perriello, the big question is by what margin (e.g., 6 out of 10? 7 out of 10? or as this “internal” has it, 9 out of 10?). As for the shift in African-American support towards Perriello, that might be explained by the heavy rotation of TV ads showing Barack Obama campaigning for Perriello in 2010. Other ideas?
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