Home 2017 Races Virginia Early Voting Spikes, Particularly in Big “Blue” Parts of the Commonwealth

Virginia Early Voting Spikes, Particularly in Big “Blue” Parts of the Commonwealth

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Check out the graphics below (and to the right; click to “embiggen” on that one), by VPAP, of final absentee ballot numbers in Virginia for 2017 compared to 2013. The overall takeaway is that this seems to be very good news for the Democrats. See below for a lot more detailed analysis…

Note that in 2013, Manassas City went 49%-46% for McAuliffe over Cuccinelli; Manassas Park City went 54%-42% TMac; PW County went 52%-44% for TMac; Prince Edward County went 50%-42% for TMac; Accomack went 54%-42% for Cooch; Lunenberg went 51%-42% for Cooch; Dinwiddie went 47%-45% for Cooch; Pulaski went 59%-32% for Cooch; Northampton went 52%-40% for TMac; Fauquier went 60%-35% for Cooch; Virginia Beach went 48%-46% for Cooch; Southampton went 50%-45% for Cooch; Mecklenberg went 56%-40% for Cooch; Chesapeake City went 49%-46% for TMac; Lexington went 62%-33% for TMac; Spotsylvania went 56%-39% for Cooch; Suffolk went 54%-41% for TMac; Stafford went 55%-40% for Cooch; Fairfax County went 58%-39% for TMac; Prince George went 54%-38% for Cooch; Alexandria went 72%-23% for TMac; Williamsburg went 63%-31% for TMac; Alleghany went 48%-39% for Cooch; Arlington went 72%-22% for TMac; Poquoson went 68%-24% for Cooch; Campbell went 70%-23% for Cooch and Hampton went 67%-28% for TMac.

Now, keep in mind that these jurisdictions are of wildly differing size. By FAR the largest jurisdiction, of course, is heavily blue Fairfax County, which saw 306k votes in 2013; purple Virginia Beach, with 108k votes in 2013; blue Prince William County, with 97k votes in 2013; super-blue Arlington County, with 68k votes in 2013; purple Chesapeake, with 63k votes in 2013; super-blue Alexandria, with 41k votes in 2013; super-blue Hampton, with 37k votes in 2013; red Stafford had 34k votes; strongly red Spotsylvania had 32k votes; strongly blue Suffolk had 24k votes; strongly red Fauquier had 21k votes in 2013 and super-red Campbell had 16k votes.

Again, note that by far the largest jurisdictions here are either blue/heavily blue (Fairfax County, PW County, Arlington County, Alexandria, Hampton) or purple (Virginia Beach, Chesapeake), with the red jurisdictions (Stafford, Spotsylvania, Fauquier and Campbell) much smaller. So, overall this is looking very good for the “blue team” and not nearly so good for the Republicans.

P.S. Also note that some of the other red areas with the highest increases in early voting this year are tiny. For instance, Prince Edward only had 5k votes in 2013; Accomack only had 9k votes; Lunenberg only 3k votes; Pulaski only 8k votes; Southampton just 5k votes; Mecklenberg 7.5k votes; Prince George just 9k votes; Alleghany just 4k votes; and Poquoson just 4k votes.

Here are Northern Virginia jurisdictions – nearly 100k total absentee requests.

Here’s Hampton Roads – in second place, although far behind at nearly 30k absentee requests.

Here’s the Capital Region – in third place, at 25k requests.

Here’s Piedmont – small numbers here

Here’s the Valley of Virginia – small numbers here

Here’s Southside Virginia – small numbers here

Here’s SW Virginia – small numbers here)

Here’s the Chesapeake Bay region – relatively tiny numbers here

  • John Farrell

    DPVA and the Coordinated have never put nearly enough effort into early voting. Last year, the local Clinton campaign staff even denied it existed.

    According to Cameron Quinn, former Registrar of Voters in Faifax Co., and sidekick of voter suppression advocate Hans Van Spakovsky, 70-80% of Fairfax Co. voters qualify to vote early. While this years numbers are better than 2013, imagine if 200,000+ Fairfax Co. voters had aleady cast their ballot over the last 6 weeks.

    How much less stressful would GOTV be on Tuesday?

    • Perseus1986

      You still need a “reason” for voting early, so I think both campaigns don’t want to be seen pushing people to vote “illegally”. IMO, this is absolutely ridiculous. I come from Ohio, a major swing state but that had a Republican governorship (if that’s a word) for all but 4 of my years there, and even there you could just walk up and vote early whenever you had a free moment from mid-October going forward. Hopefully we get an assembly after this election that is not afraid of real democracy.

      • John Farrell

        NINETEEN – that’s how many different “reasons” exist to enable Virginians to vote early. If a campaign staffer can’t find one applicable to every voter they meet, they’re not trying.

        I used to work in Fairfax City while living in Reston – that’s Reason 1C.

        If I plan on having lunch at Dolce Vita or Red, White and Blue on election day – that’s Reason 1D!

        NO ONE has ever been charge with improperly voting early.

        These campaigns could not be more slow-witted or cowardly.

        And don’t get me started on the ridiculous training now given to the authorized reps (“inside poll volunteers”). At this point, our volunteers have to ask why they bother.

        I guess campaign staff would rather lose than take a stand on voting rights.’s

        • Perseus1986

          It’s obvious reading through the “reasons” though that they were designed to sow doubt and keep people away from the polls. Looking at the reason of commuting outside of the county, it requires that the voter be outside of the county for 11 hours of the day, so basically the entire time the polls are open. Whether or not this is ever enforced, the intention is clear that it wants to limit the number of participating voters. I trust a political party that sees a path to power through persuading the majority with its ideas rather than using voter repression and gerrymandering to entrench the outsized influence of a minority. Here’s to voting for a Dem majority in the House tomorrow

  • Audio: President Barack Obama calls into Virginia for Ralph Northam, Justin Fairfax, Mark Herring

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xl3uU0JJG3Q

  • Anthony Shifflett

    Impressed with the GOTV operation this year. Looks good.

  • Kenneth Ferland

    Lunenburg is 3rd most improved rural county in the state, this builds on our doubling of primary participation back in June well ahead of state averages. I can assure you this is a surge of Democratic absentee ballots as our hard working volunteers have been doing unprecedented levels of absentee ballot collection, plus we WON absentee ballots in 2013 by 54/39 so increases here are good no matter how the county overall goes. I believe will hold the Republican vote surplus to 100~200 votes vs the 300 edge they had in 2013.

  • Care to opine or speculate on why Martha Boneta would, a week before the election, be talking about running for Jill Vogel’s state senate seat if she gets elected Lt. Governor? The timing just seems weird to me, and makes me wonder if she knows something we don’t, or is just trying to be the first one to announce interest in that race.