Home 2018 Elections Current Percentage Chances of Democrats Winning Virginia Congressional Races

Current Percentage Chances of Democrats Winning Virginia Congressional Races


Courtesy of The Crosstab blog, here’s a map with the current, estimated percentage chances of Democrats winning each district. Note that I’ve left off Democratic-controlled VA-03, VA-04, VA-08 and VA-11, as they’re all 99% likely to remain Democratic. Of course, these percentages could change dramatically by November, depending on national political trends, the strength of candidates and campaigns, and other variables. I’m hoping they go up, of course, as Trump’s numbers hopefully head back down again (after a small but noticeable uptick, for whatever crazy reason, the past few weeks). As of right now, I’d probably go with closer to 80% (vs. 64.7%) in VA-10, 40% (vs. 36.5%) in VA-02, 35% (vs. 33%) in VA-07, 20% (vs. 28.3%) in VA-05, 15% (vs. 22.2%) in VA-01, 10% (vs. 17.8%) in VA-06 and 1% (vs. 1%) in VA-09. What do you think?

  • dave schutz

    As Yogi Berra didn’t say, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” A lot will happen between now and the election. Voters will actually start to focus, and think whether they like whatever pleasant and plausible candidate the Dems have nominated rather than the Republican. Trump and Ryan and McConnell will have done things, and people will either like them or not. The failed Dem candidates for nomination in districts like the 10th will either have hurt the eventual nominee, or not. So I think this kind of speculation is really pre-hatch chicken-counting.
    That said, I think Don Beyer and Gerry Connolly will be reelected.

    • This is simply a snapshot, right now, put together by The Crosstab blog. It goes without saying that tons of stuff can – and will – change between now and election day, including these probabilities. Again, this is simply where we are right now.

  • Jay_Teigh

    It appears the Crosstab map’s color coding is nationwide and therefore based on Hillary-Trump votes, not Northam-Gillespie votes. In Virginia, Northam-Gillespie votes represent more recent choices, so I’d say I agree with you, Lowell, more than Crosstab.

  • Anthony Shifflett

    Comstock is my representative.

    Just as Bathroom Bob was. We replaced him with Danica Roem.

    I think she will go the way of Bob.

  • Perseus1986

    Speculative reasons for higher Trump numbers-
    State of the Union- He was made to look presidential and unifying in tone (though obviously not in substance). Despite the Democratic response(s), there is not a real opposition equivalent. I see this as kind of like a convention bump in an election year that pretty much every party gets.

    Up until the school shooting he’s kind of shut up in recent weeks and had few public SNAFUs

    Government shutdowns- Consistently, regardless of the incumbent, the president comes off betterduring budgetary crises than anyone in congress.