Home 2018 Elections New PPP Poll Shows Close Race, Particularly Among Those “Very Excited” to...

New PPP Poll Shows Close Race, Particularly Among Those “Very Excited” to Vote, in VA-02

1145
17
SHARE

Some new polling numbers by Public Policy Polling (PPP)  on a bunch of districts, including VA-02, are out today. For whatever reason, PPP only polled Democrat Elaine Luria and not the other Democratic candidate, Karen Mallard. It would be good to know how Mallard would fare head-to-head against Rep. Scott Taylor (R), especially given that the DCCC has weighed in heavily for Luria. My view is that the party should not weigh in unless there’s strong evidence that one potential candidate is electable and one is not. For instance, let’s say Luria were up 10 points over Taylor and Mallard down 10 points or whatever, then sure. But I don’t think that is the case here. Regardless, it’s encouraging to see that in a district  Taylor won by 22 points in 2016 (and that Trump won by over 3 points), he’s only up by 6 points now (over Luria), and actually TRAILS (by 2 points) among those who say they are “very excited” to vote in November. So let’s all just make sure we turn out to vote in November, and hopefully the rest will take care of itself…


  • Adam

    PPP only polled Elaine Luria because she’s the only one who has a shot at beating Scott Taylor. In a military heavy district like VA-02, only a veteran can beat a veteran. Plus, Mallard has been awful at fundraising – only $14,099 cash on hand to Scott Taylor’s $842,961 war chest.

  • Kenneth Ferland

    DCCC should not be getting involved in primaries at all, it is massively counter productive. The locals pick the nominee and the DCCC can then make it’s own assessment of where to invest money.

    • Adam

      I think it depends on the candidates and the race. I’m glad the DCCC mostly stayed out of VA-05 and is (so far) staying out of VA-07 and VA-10 but I’m glad they intervened in this one. Scott Taylor has a huge amount of cash on hand and incumbent advantage so we should start rallying around the only electable candidate in the race. Even if she didn’t have DCCC backing, Elaine still would’ve won but at least now she can get a head start with donors and other organizations closing the gap between her and Taylor.

      • Kenneth Ferland

        We have lots of instances of the DCCC coming into a primary specifically to stop a candidate they don’t like (for clearly ideological reasons) from winning, not just getting behind someone who was likely going to win anyways. And fund raising disparities between candidates are not happening in a vacuum, the DCCC has been helping their preferred candidates, before they have endorsed, to raise the money that they then use a justification to endorse them.

        https://theintercept.com/2018/04/26/steny-hoyer-audio-levi-tillemann/

        A clear anti-progressive pattern has been observed and it will be damaging to the party long term. First their is nothing that can demoralize a grass-roots movement faster and Second the DCCC is simply BAD at picking candidates, ANYONE who is not local and tries to pick/recruit the ‘best’ candidate before the race have even started. It’s the nature of democratic voters to fall in love with the darkhorse not ‘safe’ choice which are not actually ‘safe’ because successful democratic campaigns depend on enthusiasms not safety.

    • notjohnsmosby

      So, you think the candidate who raised a whopping $30,000 for her campaign is the better candidate?

      The DCCC wants to win this race. I assume you would have preferred a convention instead of a primary in the 2nd?

      • Kenneth Ferland

        I don’t know anything about your 2nd CD candidates (but if I did I might actually be interested in the candidates views and experience not just the size of their war chest). Neither they nor the nomination method are any of my business. I believe in a BOTTOM UP party and want the DCCC to let the locals nominate.

        • notjohnsmosby

          Sounds like you haven’t won too many races for Dems down in Lunenburg.

          • Kenneth Ferland

            Fortunately that’s not the attitude that the local delegate races took last November as they applied themselves and re-built the party in rural areas.

            Last November we made an attempt on an open county supervisor seat in a heavily Republican distinct and though our candidate did not win she outperformed the Governors margin by 20 points, now she’s running for the town council race which is less then a week away and I’m helping her campaign.

            Our county is raising it’s own funds and growing our membership and becoming better organized at an unprecedented rate especially when compared to other rural counties.

            If your in an urban area getting democratic victories is infinitely easier then it is out here, we have to struggle to even keep a functioning party apparatus going in the face of low population density, majority republican populations and older demographics which keep even our strong democrats from being active.

          • notjohnsmosby

            So, no wins? Here’s an idea – win an election in your neighborhood before telling everyone else how to select candidates in far more important races than a supervisor who represents less than 2,000 people.

          • Kenneth Ferland

            That is a very flippant and offensive attitude. First off every race is important, ignoring the ‘unimportant’ stuff is how the party got into such a terrible spot in state legislatures.

            I and every other democrat have every right to talk about the DCCC they are a NATIONAL organization which is trying to dictate a NATIONAL strategy of pushing centrist corporate candidates in the primaries. I can say that is wrong regardless of where I am or what my accomplishments are.

            You can not dismiss me on grounds that I am not from the district because I am criticizing ANOTHER entity the DCCC that is likewise not local.

          • notjohnsmosby

            Your support for a convention in the 5th is all the evidence most readers need to understand that you don’t have a clue how to elect a Democrat.

          • Adam

            Wow dude.

            I may not agree with his views on caucus conventions or the DCCC, but Kenneth has been respectful and articulate in his opinion and shown courage to be an active Democrat in bright red Lunenburg. I’ve been to Lunenburg; it’s a harsh environment for Dems. Jesus himself could run as Democratic and still not get elected. People like Kenneth who are active on every election despite the opposition are what’s great about the Democratic party!

            People like you notjohnsmosby, are the problem. Your condescending and dismissive attitude towards others who you don’t agree with is why the Democratic party is seen as elitist and out of touch.

          • What’s even more amazing is that these “condescending and dismissive” attitudes are held by a top DPVA official, 11th CD Chair and member of the state party’s “Steering Committee.”

          • Adam

            You’re right; it is amazing and very disheartening that someone in such a high position would try to put down another Democrat that represents us so well in a rural county. We can disagree and debate our positions but should never attack each other.

            I’m done commenting on this thread. Hopefully the next ones will be more civil and respectful.

          • Bingo.

  • Lucas Anderton

    Maybe it’s because Karen couldn’t afford the polling since she’s only raised $30,000 (with $14,000 on hand)