New Monmouth Poll: Jennifer Wexton Leads Barbara Comstock by 9-11 Points in Crucial VA-10, Depending on Turnout Model

This new poll by Monmouth of VA-10 is good news, but as far as I’m concerned, Barbara Comstock is a super-tough campaigner who is never easy to beat, so let’s work super hard and see if we can do even better than a 9-11-point win this fall for Jennifer Wexton!

P.S. Monmouth is an A+ pollster, according to FiveThirtyEight.com

P.P.S. Also note that VA-10 is one of the top targets in the country for Democrats, absolutely crucial if we are going to take back the U.S. House of Representatives this November.

Other findings from the poll include:

• Democrats support Jennifer Wexton by a 97%-1% margin, with Independents going 45%-36% for Wexton and Republicans 85%-10% for Comstock.
• Major gender gap, as women overwhelmingly (60%-27%) support Wexton, with men going for Comstock 50%-38%.
• Wexton is beating Comstock big time (56%-37%) in Fairfax County, by 9 points (48%-39%) in Loudoun County, and by 9 points (46%-37%) in Prince William County/Manassas. Comstock leads by a statistically insignificant 2 points (44%-42%) in the western part of VA-10.
• Comstock’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 32%-36% (minus 4 points), compared to Wexton’s 30%-10% (PLUS 20 points)
• Liberals hold a 61%-1% favorable view of Jennifer Wexton. Conservatives hold a 51%-19% favorable view of Barbara Comstock.
• 42% of VA-10 voters approve of Donald Trump’s job as president, with 24% saying they “strongly approve.” On the other side, 53% say they disapprove, with a whopping 47% saying they STRONGLY disapprove. Wow.
• Among Democrats, 90% strongly disapprove of Trump, while ZERO percent strongly approve. Among Republicans, 55% strongly approve, while 9% strongly disapprove.
• 60% say it’s “very important” to cast a vote either against or in favor of Trump, with another 19% saying it’s “somewhat important” to do so. That’s bad news for Comstock if the election is predominantly about Trump.
• 75% of liberals say they have a lot of interest in the election, while 66% of conservatives say the same. That’s a 9-point advantage for liberals.
• By a 2:1 margin (34%-17%), voters say that Comstock (who has voted 97% of the time with Trump) has been “too supportive” of him as opposed to “not supportive enough.”
• Voters hold a strongly negative view (26%-46%; minus 20 points) of the Republican Party. Voters hold a slightly unfavorable view (34%-38%; minus 4 points) of the Democratic Party. That’s also bad news for Comstock, who is basically the uber-Republican.
• By a 48%-17% margin, voters think that Jennifer Wexton would do a good job “serving the needs of constituents in this congressional district.”
• The sample for this poll was 50/50 male/female; 50% independent (that seems wayyyyy too high)/25% Dem/25% Republican; 74% White/non-Hispanic; 43% Loudoun County/28% Fairfax County (also 16% in the western part of the district and 13% in PW County, Manassas and Manassas Park)