Home 2018 Elections Deep-Blue Arlington, VA Heading Towards Presidential Election Turnout “Well in Excess of...

Deep-Blue Arlington, VA Heading Towards Presidential Election Turnout “Well in Excess of 100,000?”

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From long-time Treasurer and Arlington political turnout guru Frank X. O’Leary. If this analysis is accurate (e.g., if it’s not mostly “time shifting” from voting on election day to voting early) and if we similar patterns in other strongly “blue” parts of Northern Virginia (e.g., Fairfax County, Alexandria, Prince William County), Corey Stewart will be demolished, and hopefully Democrats (e.g., Jennifer Wexton in VA-10, Matt de Ferranti i Arlington, Babur Lateef in PW County) will win up and down the ballot. But first things first – VOTE and GET OUT THE VOTE! Then we’ll see on November 6…

The onslaught of the Registrar’s office has continued unabated.  As of yesterday, 9,244 Absentee Votes had been cast versus only 1,869 four years ago.  Eventually, that number blossomed into 7,115 – a then record Absentee Turnout for a Senatorial Year in Arlington.  That record was eclipsed with Monday’s count.  Moreover, should this pace continue (and there is no guarantee that it will) an astounding total of between 26,000 and 30,000 Arlingtonians will have cast absentee ballots by November 6.  The Table, immediately below, puts this in perspective.

           

Arlington Elections by Greatest Absentee Vote
Year Race Absentee Vote Total Vote %Absentee
2016 Presidential 37,832 122,023 31.0%
2008 Presidential 34,232 110,561 31.0%
2012 Presidential 28,954 118,214 24.5%
2017 Gubernatorial 12,228 85,323 14.3%
2013 Gubernatorial 7,304 67,500 10.8%
2014 Senatorial 7,115 67,762 10.5%
2010 Senatorial 5,573 62,843 8.9%
2009 Gubernatorial 4,611 56,415 8.2%

In short, this year’s probable Voter Turnout is assuming Presidential dimensions and a Total Turnout well in excess of 100,000 is highly probable.  Will this mind-boggling pace continue?  Will prior relationships between the Absentee Vote and Total Turnout remain faithful?  Stay tuned and – Many Happy Returns!