From long-time Treasurer and Arlington political turnout guru Frank X. O’Leary. If this analysis is accurate (e.g., if it’s not mostly “time shifting” from voting on election day to voting early) and if we similar patterns in other strongly “blue” parts of Northern Virginia (e.g., Fairfax County, Alexandria, Prince William County), Corey Stewart will be demolished, and hopefully Democrats (e.g., Jennifer Wexton in VA-10, Matt de Ferranti i Arlington, Babur Lateef in PW County) will win up and down the ballot. But first things first – VOTE and GET OUT THE VOTE! Then we’ll see on November 6…
The onslaught of the Registrar’s office has continued unabated. As of yesterday, 9,244 Absentee Votes had been cast versus only 1,869 four years ago. Eventually, that number blossomed into 7,115 – a then record Absentee Turnout for a Senatorial Year in Arlington. That record was eclipsed with Monday’s count. Moreover, should this pace continue (and there is no guarantee that it will) an astounding total of between 26,000 and 30,000 Arlingtonians will have cast absentee ballots by November 6. The Table, immediately below, puts this in perspective.
| Arlington Elections by Greatest Absentee Vote | ||||
| Year | Race | Absentee Vote | Total Vote | %Absentee |
| 2016 | Presidential | 37,832 | 122,023 | 31.0% |
| 2008 | Presidential | 34,232 | 110,561 | 31.0% |
| 2012 | Presidential | 28,954 | 118,214 | 24.5% |
| 2017 | Gubernatorial | 12,228 | 85,323 | 14.3% |
| 2013 | Gubernatorial | 7,304 | 67,500 | 10.8% |
| 2014 | Senatorial | 7,115 | 67,762 | 10.5% |
| 2010 | Senatorial | 5,573 | 62,843 | 8.9% |
| 2009 | Gubernatorial | 4,611 | 56,415 | 8.2% |
In short, this year’s probable Voter Turnout is assuming Presidential dimensions and a Total Turnout well in excess of 100,000 is highly probable. Will this mind-boggling pace continue? Will prior relationships between the Absentee Vote and Total Turnout remain faithful? Stay tuned and – Many Happy Returns!
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