Last night, at Del. Patrick Hope (D-Arlington)’s annual “Pizza and Politics” fundraiser, Virginia political guru Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett presented his analysis of where we’re at in Virginia politics heading into 2019. As always, whether you agree or disagree with Ben’s conclusions, the guy knows the districts, candidates, etc. better than just about anyone else. So check out the videos, below, of Ben’s presentation. Also, see below for an exchange at the end between Patrick, Ben and me over what the chances are for Democrats to take back the Virginia House of Delegates in 2019. Ben said 15% and Patrick said at least 50% (note: I’m with Patrick, probably around 60/40 right now).
P.S. I’ve added a poll if you want to weigh in on this…
Del. Patrick Hope says Democrats have a historic opportunity to take back the Virginia House of Delegates and State Senate in 2019. Patrick said the upcoming legislative session will see a lot of discussion about the budget, tax reform, redistricting reform, ERA ratification, gambling, gun violence prevention, etc. On climate change, Del. Hope said no other issue is as consequential as protecting our environment…and he’s 100% correct on that.
Ben talks about different approaches to redistricting (“communities of interest” vs. grouping people of similar ideology together), the importance of independent voters, and the absolutely crucial importance for Democrats of TURNOUT (basically, increased turnout – particularly among younger, more diverse voters – translates almost directly into an increased number of Democratic House of Delegates seats)…
Who are the Democratic Delegates most at risk in 2019? According to Ben, the most vulnerable is Del. Wendy Gooditis (HD-10), followed by Del. Danica Roem (HD-13), then Del. Lee Carter (HD-50), then Del. Schuyler Van Valkenburg (HD-72), Del. Debra Rodman (HD-73) and possibly Del. Cheryl Turpin (HD-85). Our best chance for a pickup is definitely Shelly Simonds (HD-94), who ended up in a TIE after the election in November 2017, losing when her Republican opponent’s name was pulled out of a bowl. Ben also says there’s an 80% chance the State Senate will flip to the Democrats in 2019. Finally, on the House Democratic leadership vote this Saturday, Ben said he thought Sam Rasoul will get a “surprising number of votes” and most likely make it to the final round, then lose to either Charniele Herring (who Ben says is the favorite to win) or one of the other three (Rip Sullivan, Eileen Filler-Corn, Marcus Simon). We’ll see tomorrow!
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