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Another day, another district analysis by tireless Virginia politico Chaz Nuttycombe. Today, it’s HD31, which was a very closely contested/”purple” district pre-Trump, but since 2016 has been solidly blue (e.g., Northam won it by 13 points in 2017; Kaine won it by 20 points in 2018). The question, as always, is what will happen in this historically low-low-turnout, “off/odd” election year? Will Democratic voters stay home, as they’ve done in the past, disproportionately to Republican voters? If Democratic voters *do* turn out, then Del. Elizabeth Guzman and other Democrats elected in the 2017 “blue wave” should be in good shape this November. If they stay home, then watch out. But I generally agree with Chaz here, that this is a “Likely D” district, especially since Prince William County Republicans decided to go completely off the right-wing deep end recently. But let’s not take anything for granted, of course, but make sure we work hard to reelect Del. Guzman this November…
