Check out the audio, below, of Virginia House Speaker Kirk Cox (R) listing the top House of Delegates seats on his radar screen for this November 5. The key for Democrats, of course, is picking up a net of two seats, which would take the House of Delegates to a 51-49 Democratic majority…and no more Speaker Kirk Cox. For comparison purposes, see here for Chaz Nuttycombe’s current district ratings (and note how much overlap there is with the districts Cox lists) and here for Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett’s latest district ratings (again, lots of overlap with the districts Cox lists, except that Ben has more districts in play than Chaz does).
So what’s at stake in these elections? I actually think that John Fredericks – who was Trump’s 2016 Virginia chair and is very plugged in to Trump World – expresses it very well, when he says to Speaker Cox:
“It’s a generational election and if…your caucus does not prevail it’s going to change the dynamics in this state for I believe four or five decades. I don’t see how you would come back from this…
…[Also] right now the Trump campaign…is looking at Virginia as a top-tier state and we’re getting the resources, they’re getting the staff, they’re hiring people, but that’s going to be dependent going forward on how Virginia does in the elections. So if you lose the Senate, you get wiped out in the House, it’s unlikely that the Trump campaign is going to continue to pour resources in Virginia; that comes off the table.”
Also, as an obvious “tell” for how nervous Republicans are about losing their majority this November, note the unhinged – and utterly false – hysteria in their rhetoric about supposed “socialism” and “radical,” even “communist” Democrats. It’s very, very revealing, IMHO, about Virginia House Republicans’ current state of mind. PANIC!
- Former Del. Randy Minchew (R) vs. Del. Wendy Gooditis (D) in HD10 (a 54% Northam/57% Kaine district – Loudoun/Frederick/Clarke counties)
- Former Del. Rich Anderson (R) vs. Del. Hala Ayala (D) in HD51 (a 55% Northam/59% Kaine district – Prince William County)
- Republican DJ Jordan vs. Del. Elizabeth Guzman (D) in HD31 (a 56% Northam/59% Kaine district – Prince William/Fauquier counties)
- Republican Kelly McGinn vs. Del. Danica Roem (D) in HD13 (a 57% Northam/62% Kaine district – Prince William County, Manassas Park City)
- Republican Garrison Coward vs. Del. Dawn Adams (D) in HD68 (a 56% Northam/61% Kaine district – Chesterfield/Henrico counties, Richmond City)
- Republican Mary Margaret Kastelberg vs. Democrat Rodney Willett in HD73 (a 53% Northam/59% Kaine district – Henrico County and a tiny part of Richmond City)
- Republican GayDonna Vandergriff vs. Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg (D) in HD72 (a 54% Northam/59% Kaine district – Henrico County)
- Republican Rocky Holcomb vs. Democrat Alex Askew in HD85 (a 55% Northam/57% Kaine district – Virginia Beach City)
- Republican Shannon Kane vs. Del. Kelly Fowler (D) in HD21 (a 56% Northam/58% Kaine district – Virginia Beach City and Chesapeake City)
P.S. Note that Cox didn’t mention the race in HD50 between Del. Lee Carter (D/”Socialist”) and Republican Ian Lovejoy. Cox also didn’t mention HD27 (Democrat Larry Barnett vs. Del. Roxann Robinson), HD28 (Democrat Joshua Cole vs. Republican Paul Milde), HD40 (Democrat Dan Helmer vs. Del. Tim Hugo) HD66 (Democrat Sheila Bynum-Coleman vs. Speaker Cox), HD76 (Democrat Clint Jenkins vs. Del. Chris Jones), HD81 (Democrat Len Myers vs. Del. Barry Knight), HD83 (Democrat Nancy Guy vs. Republican Chris Stolle), HD84 (Democrat Karen Mallard vs. Del. Glenn Davis), HD85 (Democrat Alex Askew vs. Republican Rocky Holcomb), HD91 (Democrat Martha Mugler vs. Republican Colleen Holcomb), HD94 (Democrat Shelly Simonds vs. Del. David Yancey), HD100 (Democrat Phil Hernandez vs. Del. Rob Bloxom), all of which are or could be competitive.
UPDATE 4:35 pm: Elizabeth Guzman writes:
He did not list the districts that we could flip, so I will give you a list: donate to Sheila For Delegate running against the Speaker; donate to Clint L. Jenkins running against the Chair of Appropriations; donate to Dan Helmer against GOP House Chair; donate to Phil for Virginia running against Bloxom; donate to Nancy Guy for Delegate running against Stolle; donate to Karen Mallard for Delegate running against Davis; donate to Shelly Simonds running against Yancey; donate to Lindsay Dougherty running on an open seat; donate to Joshua Cole for Delegate running on an open seat; donate to Neri For Delegate running against Orrock, Chair of Health Welfare and Institutions and more! Onto Victory #BlueWave2019