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Columbia University Models How Coronavirus Could Spread with No Action, Some Control Measures, Severe Control Measures


See below for some fascinating maps, courtesy of Columbia University reseachers and the NY Times, modeling the possible spread of Coronavirus in Virginia and other states over the next few months under three scenarios: 1) “Severe control measures”; 2) “Some control measures”; 3) “No control measures.”

As you can see, with “No control measures,” Virginia would basically be overwhelmed with Coronavirus by June 1, and certainly by July 1, when the state is a sea of deep-red. With “Some control measures,” it’s somewhat better, but still doesn’t look good by July 1, let alone August 1. Finally, with “Severe control measures,” there’s still a large number of Coronavirus cases in Virginia by July 1 and August 1, but much better than in the other two cases.

Note that the three cases – “Severe control measures,” “Some control measures,” “No transmission reduction” –  are defined as: 1) “if overall transmission is cut by 50 percent…from what it has been so far”; 2) “[if overall transmission is cut] by 25 percent from what it has been so far”; 3) the “unlikely” scenario of “what could happen without any intervention.” Clearly, we’re not doing #3; to the contrary, we’ve massively changed our behavior. So…hopefully, we’re talking something *much* closer to #1, because obviously #3 would be a disaster and #2 doesn’t look great either. The problem, of course, is maintaining “Severe control measures” for months. How’s that going to work, exactly? Got me. Meanwhile, we really need to crank up testing big time, so we at least know who’s infected and who isn’t. But yeah, it could be a looong next few months…sigh.

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