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Latest UVA COVID-19 Mode: “On current course, Virginia is projected to have 13,000 weekly confirmed cases, and growing, by early September”

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The latest update from the UVA COVID-19 model looks…not at all great, really. Here are some “highlights” (lowlights?) from this week’s edition:

  • “Eleven health districts are experiencing surges, including seven in the Hampton Roads area.”
  • “Surges in Thomas Jefferson and Three Rivers abated, while a new surge emerged in Central Virginia”
  • “On current course, Virginia is projected to have 13,000 weekly confirmed cases, and growing, by early September”
  • “On July 18, the reproduction rate dipped below 1.0 statewide, including a large drop in the Eastern Region.”
  • “The reproduction rate has been volatile as cases have surged. Early estimates have tended to underestimate R0.”