Home Coronavirus New UVA COVID-19 Model Update: 12 Health Districts “Experiencing Surges,” Rt>1.0, Cases...

New UVA COVID-19 Model Update: 12 Health Districts “Experiencing Surges,” Rt>1.0, Cases Surging Among 20-39 Year Olds

"On current course, Virginia is projected to have ~15,000 weekly cases, and growing, by early September"

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The latest UVA COVID-19 Model weekly update is out; see below for the main points:

  • Twelve health districts are experiencing surges, including eight in the Hampton Roads area…. While the Eastern Region, excluding Eastern Shore, continues to be the epicenter of the surge in Virginia, it is beginning to spread to other areas as well. Notably, Rappahannock-Rapidan joined Thomas Jefferson in the Northwest Health Planning Region. Arlington also entered a surge in Northern Virgina. It is crucial that Virginians clamp down now to prevent these surges from growing and spreading.
  • “On current course, Virginia is projected to have ~15,000 weekly cases, and growing, by early September.”
  • “On July 11, the reproduction rate was above 1.0 statewide and in four of six HPP regions.”
  • “So far, projections do not anticipate hospitalizations will exceed capacity through August, however it is crucial to mitigate surges.”
  • “Social distancing appears to be waning, but infection control and other mitigations are suppressing spread.”
  • “Cell phone data indicates that Virginians are increasingly returning to work and visiting local businesses, almost at prepandemic levels. This is good news, if residents and businesses follow the guidance in the Forward Virginia plan.”
  • “In many areas, cases are surging among 20-39 year olds. Although this group is less likely to suffer the worst from COVID-19 a spike in cases puts us all at risk. It also risks a rollback of reopening plans, something we’ve seen in other states.”