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Of the 17 Virginia Jurisdictions Over 100k Population, 16 Now Get an “F” Grade on the Unacast “Social Distancing Scorecard”

And the other one gets a "D-" grade

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According to Unacast, Virginia and most states now receive an “F” grade on the “Social Distancing Scorecard,” with no state getting above a “D+” grade, and the United States as a whole at an “F” grade. In short, it’s not a pretty picture across the country, and this is reflected in these pathetic trends and in headlines like Some States Pause Reopenings as U.S. Cases Surge and Fauci Says U.S. Could Reach 100,000 Virus Cases a Day as Warnings Grow Darker. Not good.

So how’s the COVID-19 “social distancing” scorecard looking in the largest Virginia jurisidictions (>100k population)? In descending order of population, here you go:

  • Fairfax County (1.1 million): “F”
  • Prince William County (452k): “F”
  • Virginia Beach (447k): “F”
  • Loudoun County (375k): “F”
  • Chesterfield County (336k): “F”
  • Henrico County (325k): “F”
  • Norfolk (247k): “F”
  • Arlington County (229k): “D-“
  • Chesapeake (222k): “F”
  • Richmond City (210k): “F”
  • Newport News (181k): “F”
  • Alexandria (147k): “F”
  • Hampton (146k): “F”
  • Stafford County (142k): “F”
  • Spotsylvania County (130k): “F”
  • Albemarle County (106k): “F”
  • Hanover County (103k): “F”

In sum, with the exception of Arlington’s “D-” grade, every Virginia jurisdiction with a population over 100k gets an “F” grade on the Unacast social distancing scorecard. Which can’t possibly be good news, right? And, in fact, the COVID-19 “effective reproduction rate” is already increasing in Virginia, and hospitalization trends seem to be ticking up as well. In short, Virginians really need to get a lot more serious about social distancing, and stop thinking we’ve kicked COVID’s butt – because we most certainly have not.

P.S. For more background on the Unacast Social Distancing Scorecard methodology, see here. Basically, it includes three metrics:

  1. Change in average distance traveled compared to a pre-COVID-19 period
  2. Change in visitation to non-essential venues compared to a pre-COVID-19 period
  3. Human encounters metric (M= number of encountersarea (km²)/ baseline – 1)