Let’s assume the typical size of a high-school in Northern Virginia has approximately 2,000 students and 200 support staff. Under most hybrid plans being considered by school districts, let’s assume, 50% of the students go one day and the other 50% go the other day. So, 1,000 students and 200 students 2 days; and, 1,000 students and 200 staff the other 2 days.
Let’s also assume that the percent positive rate remains flat, from where we are now, between now and the start of school. That’s seems like a big stretch given the current upward trajectory. But, let’s assume it for now.
According to Georgia Tech’s Applied BioInformatics Laboratory, this size of event (1,000 students) would have >99% chance in Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania and Stafford public schools that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present in that school on each hybrid day.
Let’s assume that 50% students and staff opt to learn remotely. So, now we have 500 students and 100 school staff. This size of event (500 students) would have the following % chance that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present in each of the following schools each hybrid day:
🚨 Alexandria -> 99%
🚨 Arlington -> 95%
🚨 Fairfax -> 95%
🚨 Loudoun -> >99%
🚨 Prince William -> >99%
🚨 Spotsylvania -> 98%
🚨 Stafford -> 93%
How safe would you feel working and learning in those environments? Knowing the potential risk, is each school board willing to risk everyone’s health and lives?
Our percent positive needs to be significantly lower for it to be safe to reopen the schools even under the current hybrid scenarios. We aren’t even close right now. The current proposed plans for in-person learning is not realistic at this time. The only safe option is 100% virtual, until our numbers improve.