8/14 UVA COVID-19 Model Update Finds Rt<1.0, 16 Health Districts Experiencing Surges

Key points from the newly updated UVA COVID-19 model include:

• “Sixteen health districts are experiencing surges, with 3 new districts in the Southwest (Lenowisco, Pittsylvania-Danville, and West Piedmont) and one new district in the Central Region (Southside). Surges have abated in Henrico and Prince
  William.” [NOTE: Last week, 14 health districts were experiencing surges]
• “Model methodology has been updated this week. The new model closely traces past and current trends to predict future cases. The new model replaces the 8 scenarios shown in previous weeks.”
• “Projections now extend into the fall. However, considerable uncertainty remains as the impact of key seasonal effects is still unknown.”
• “The transmission rate remains below 1.0 and the surge appears to be declining, but case incidence remains high.”