Home 2020 Elections New Virginia Poll: Biden 53%-Trump 39% (+14 pts.); Warner 55%-Gade 38% (+17...

New Virginia Poll: Biden 53%-Trump 39% (+14 pts.); Warner 55%-Gade 38% (+17 pts.)

Biden was up 11 points in July...


New Virginia polling by VCU’s Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs (8/28-9/7; a bit old, but things probably haven’t changed much in the last week) has things as follows. Note that, according to FiveThirtyEight.com, this polling outfit scores a B/C grade and a mean-reverted bias of R+0.2 points.

  • “Democrats Joe Biden and Mark Warner are ahead of their opponents by double-digit margins” – Biden by 14 points (53%-39%) and Warner by 17 points (55%-38%). This compares to an 11-point lead (50%-39%) for Biden in July.
  • “In the presidential race, women were more likely to prefer Biden over Trump by 22 percentage points (58%-36%) and men prefer Biden over Trump by a smaller margin of 5 points (47%-42%). This represents a shift for men, who were more likely to say they would vote for Trump in a poll released by the Wilder School in July.
  • “Regionally, Biden has large leads in South Central Virginia (65%-22%), Northern Virginia (59%-32%) and Tidewater (56%-33%) and Trump has large leads over Biden in the West (63%-36%) and Northwest (58%-36%).”
  • Independents are breaking toward Biden by 8 percentage points (46%-38%), with 14% remaining undecided.”
  • “In the U.S. Senate race, gender and region followed the same trend as the presidential race. And Warner enjoys a greater level of support from independents, with a 16-percentage point lead over Gade (54%-38%).”
  • Seven in 10 Virginians (70%) say the selection of Harris for vice president will have no impact on their decision to vote for Biden…Sixteen percent said it would make them more likely to vote for him, while 13% say it will make them less likely.”
  • “Virginians are split on whether mail-in votes will be accurately cast and counted. Half of respondents (50%) said they are very or somewhat confident that, across the country, mail-in votes for president will be accurately cast and counted, while 48% said they are not too or not at all confident…Democrats were more likely to trust the process with 68% being very or somewhat confident.”

P.S. Standard disclaimers/cliches apply: take nothing for granted, don’t get overconfident, work like the race is really close, VOTE VOTE VOTE, etc.



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