Home 2020 Elections FiveThirtyEight.com’s U.S. House Forecast Is Now Up; Here’s How It Looks For...

FiveThirtyEight.com’s U.S. House Forecast Is Now Up; Here’s How It Looks For Virginia

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA02) at 83% chance of reelection; Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA07) at 77%; Cameron Webb at 45% chance of winning VA05


The long-awaited FiveThirtyEight.com U.S. House forecast is now up, and it’s looking good for Democrats. See below for a highlights, and a breakout of where all the Virginia races stand. Also, compare/contrast with The Economist’s model, which currently has Dems with a 99% chance of keeping the House majority, with between 220 and 263 seats. In Virginia specifically, The Economist model has VA01 as an 82% chance for Rep. Rob Wittman (R); VA05 as a 75% chance for Republican Bob Good; VA02 as an 86% chance for Rep. Elaine Luria (D); and VA07 as an 80% chance for Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D).  Also, compare/contrast to the UVA Crystal Ball, which has VA05 as a “Toss-Up,” with VA02 and VA07 as “Leans Democratic.” With that, here are the fivethirtyeight.com highlights:

  • FiveThirtyEight.com has Democrats with a 93% chance of keeping control of the U.S. House, with an average of 236.7 seats, up 3.7 from 233 seats now.
  • FiveThirtyEight.com’s chances of Democrats retaining control of the House have been almost exactly flat for months — 92% to 93% in August, 91%-93% in September, and now 93% in early October.
  • Most Virginia Congressional districts are rated as >99% for the incumbent. These districts are: VA03 (Rep. Bobby Scott – D); VA04 (Rep. Donald McEachin – D); VA06 (Rep. Ben Cline – R); VA08 (Rep. Don Beyer – D); VA09 (Rep. Morgan Griffith – R); VA10 (Rep. Jennifer Wexton – D); VA11 (Rep. Gerry Connolly – D).
  • The competitive Virginia Congressional districts are VA01, VA02, VA05, and VA07. See below for graphics of each, but in short, it’s as follows: in VA01, Rep. Rob Wittman (R) has a 93% chance of beating Democrat Qasim Rashid; in VA02, Rep. Elaine Luria (D) has an 83% chance of beating Republican Scott Taylor; in VA05, Republican Bob Good has a 55% chance of beating Democrat Dr. Cameron Webb; and in VA07, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) has a 77% chance of beating Republican Nck Freitas.
  • In sum, I’d recommend that Virginia Democrats focus our efforts in the remaining few weeks of this election on: 1) holding VA02 and VA07 for Reps. Elaine Luria and Abigail Spanberger, respectively; 2) winning VA05 for Dr. Cameron Webb; 3) making absolutely sure Biden/Harris Mark Warner win in romps; 4) helping Qasim Rashid pull a huge upset in VA01; 5) helping out in other key races across the country as time/resources permit.


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