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UVA COVID-19 Model’s Latest Update: “In Virginia, 25 of 35 local health districts are in growth trajectories, including eight in surge trajectories”

"Unlike previous surges, which were regional and relatively short-lived, there is reason to think this latest wave will continue to run."

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The weekly UVA COVID-19 model report is not looking good…

  • “In Virginia, 25 of 35 local health districts are in growth trajectories, including eight in surge trajectories”
  • The national situation continues to deteriorate, including among states bordering Virginia. Except for DC, all bordering states have weekly cases higher than 20 per 100k residents.”
  • National and state trends are concerning as we enter the holiday season, heralding colder weather and increased travel.”
  • Virginia’s incidence is high, but lower than the very high case loads in neighboring states and the exceptionally high case loads in some Midwestern states. This, however, could change rapidly.”
  • So far, very high incidence in Virginia has mostly occurred in rural counties, concentrated in Southwest Virginia. If incidence begins to increase in more populous areas of the Commonwealth statewide case loads could increase dramatically, and strain on health resources along with it.”
  • “Unlike previous surges, which were regional and relatively short-lived, there is reason to think this latest wave will continue to run.”

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