New UVA COVID-19 Report: “the post-Thanksgiving surge is large”; With “Christmas, Hanukkah and other winter holidays, it could be a long, cold winter”

The new weekly UVA COVID-19 model report is out, and it’s pretty grim reading. In short:

• “The post-Thanksgiving surge led to a substantial increase in projections. The projected peak is 98,000 new confirmed cases during the week ending Feb. 7. This is 13 times higher than the summer peak of 7,550 for the week ending Aug 9.”
• “Preliminary vaccine impacts have been incorporated into the model. The impacts are limited during the projection period and dwarfed by the impact of other mitigation strategies.”
• “…the impact of new vaccines, while promising, will not be felt for several months. These risks have now been realized. Early data indicates that the post-Thanksgiving surge is large. If compounded with surges accompanying Christmas, Hanukkah and other winter holidays, it could be a long, cold winter.”