UPDATE 9:57 pm – Kim Melnyk has won the Dem nomination in HD84 over Tracie Liguid, by a 52.6%-47.4% margin.
UPDATE 9:29 pm – Looks like turnout’s going to end up VERY solid tonight for Dems, with well over 400,000 votes cast…probably over 450,000 when all is said and done. That’s not far below 2017 turnout of 550k, which featured a super-hot race for governor and the first major statewide race after Trump’s inauguration. So…excellent news for VA Dems tonight, bad new for VA Rs, who only had 30k participate in their “unassembled convention” fiasco.
UPDATE 9:26 pm – Ben Tribbett calls HD86 for Irene Shin over Del. Ibraheem Samirah, “the 4th Dem incumbent to lose tonight.”
UPDATE 9:06 pm – Ben Tribbett tweets, “I believe Irene shin has won in HD86 but not officially calling until a little more comes in.”
UPDATE 9:01 pm – For Alexandria City Council, with 25/31 precincts reporting, the top six right now are incumbent John Taylor Chapman 12.1%, Alyia Smith-Parker Gaskins 11.9%, incumbent Amy Jackson 11.2%, incumbent Canek Aguirre 10.0%, Sarah Bagley 8.9%, R. Kirk McPike 7.1%.
UPDATE 8:57 pm – Now 14/17 precincts reporting in HD86, Irene Shin leads Del. Ibraheem Samirah 53.1%-46.9%.
UPDATE 8:54 pm – Chaz Nuttycombe also calls it for Elizabeth Bennett-Parker over Del. Mark Levine (D-HD45)…
UPDATE 8:51 pm – With 10/17 precincts reporting in HD86, challenger Irene Shin leads Del. Ibraheem Samirah 52.3%-47.7%
UPDATE 8:49 pm – Tribbett calls HD79: “Challenger Nadarius Clark has won the Democratic primary for #HD79, defeating incumbent Steve Heretick. Second democratic incumbent to fall tonight”
UPDATE 8:42 pm – Dave Wasserman and Ben Tribbett both call HD50 for Michelle Maldonado over Del. Lee Carter, who also finished last for governor.
UPDATE 8:35 pm – Ben Tribbett calls the Alexandria Mayor Dem primary for incumbent Justin Wilson, HD68 for Del. Dawn Adams and HD31 for Del. Elizabeth Guzman. Tribbett also calls HD45 for Elizabeth Bennett-Parker over Del. Mark Levine.
UPDATE 8:33 pm – In HD07, it looks like Derek Kitts will defeat Tara Orlando for the Democratic nomination.
UPDATE 8:27 pm – With 12/19 precincts reporting in HD79, challenger Nadarius Clark leads Del. Steve Heretick 48%-39%.
UPDATE 8:25 pm – With 17/26 precincts reporting in HD45, Del. Mark Levine trails his challenger, Elizabeth Bennett-Parker, 59%-41%. Not looking good for Del. Levine at all…
UPDATE 8:23 pm – With 20/23 precincts reporting, Del. Candi King is clobbering Pamela Montgomery by a 2:1 margin, despite a massive infusion of money to Montgomery from Clean Virginia/Sonja Smith/etc.
UPDATE 8:21 pm – With 1,915/2,585 precincts reporting, Hala Ayala leads Sam Rasoul 37.5%-23.8%, with Andria McClellan in third at 11.3%. And for AG, Mark Herring leads Jay Jones 55%-45%.
UPDATE 8:18 pm – CNalysis calls the Virginia LG Democratic primary for Hala Ayala and the AG race for Mark Herring.
UPDATE 8:16 pm – In Alexandria, Mayor Justin Wilson leads former Mayor Allison Silberberg 56%-44% with 16/31 precincts reporting.
UPDATE 8:15 pm – Arlington County Board member Takis Karantonis is easily winning his primary, 68%-32%. Congratulations Takis!
UPDATE 8:14 pm – Ben Tribbett calls HD02 for Candi King and HD38 for Del. Kaye Kory.
UPDATE 8:13 pm – With 24/26 precincts reporting in HD31, Del. Elizabeth Guzman is cruising to victory by 21 points over Rod Hall…
UPDATE 8:09 pm – CNalysis has called HD66 for Democrat Katie Sponsler, with a November rating of “Tilt Republican.”
UPDATE 8:07 pm – Ben Tribbett has called the AG race for Mark Herring.
UPDATE 8:06 pm – With 1,449/2,584 precincts reporting, McAuliffe’s holding at 61%…blowout win. And with 1,420/2,584 precincts reporting, Hala Ayala is well ahead, with 38.1%, followed by Sam Rasoul with 23.1%. For AG, with 1,426/2,584 precincts reporting, it’s Mark Herring 54.4%-Jay Jones 45.6%.
UPDATE 8:02 pm – It’s also not looking great for Del. Lee Carter at the moment, as he’s at just 2.9% for governor, and is trailing Michelle Maldonado in HD50 by a 42.5%-37.7% margin with 16/17 precincts reporting…
UPDATE 8:00 pm – Right now, Del. Mark Levine’s gamble to run both for reelection to his House of Delegates seat and for LG does NOT look like it’s working out for him, as he’s losing both…including his HoD seat 58%-42% to Elizabeth Bennett-Parker with 5/26 precincts in.
UPDATE 7:56 pm – CNalysis has called HD36 for Del. Ken Plum and HD34 for Del. Kathleen Murphy.
UPDATE 7:54 pm – With 1,154/2,584 precincts reporting, Terry McAuliffe is at 61%…dominating win for McAuliffe tonight! As for LG, Hala Ayala is at 39%, with Sam Rasoul trailing at 23% and nobody else even close. For AG, Mark Herring leads Jay Jones 54%-46%.
UPDATE 7:50 pm – On the Republican side, that party continues to lurch to the extremist right, looking ready to oust Del. Charles Poindexter – a conservative Republican – with Big Lie promoter and 100% Trump supporter Wren Williams. Very disturbing…
UPDATE 7:44 pm – In HD02, Del. Candi King leads challenger Pamela Montgomery 63%-37% with 14/23 precincts reporting. In HD31, Del. Elizabeth Guzman leads her main challenger, Rod Hall, 52.2%-37.2% with 22/26 precincts reporting. In HD50, Michelle Maldonado leads Del. Lee Carter 43.9%-35.1% with 15/17 precincts reporting. In HD68, Del. Dawn Adams leads challenger Kyle Elliott 62%-38% with 10/31 precincts reporting. In HD79, Del. Steve Heretick leads challenger Nadarius Clark 46.9%-37.2% with 3/19 precincts reporting. In HD84, Kim Melnyk leads Tracie Liguid 56%-44% with 7/18 precincts reporting.
UPDATE 7:41 pm – With 696/2,584 precincts reporting, Mark Herring leads Jay Jones 52.57%-47.43%. Closer than the polling and the prediction market thought…
UPDATE 7:39 pm – With 679/2,584 precincts reporting, Hala Ayala’s at 40.7%, followed by Sam Rasoul at 21.3%, Andria McClellan at 11.1%, Mark Levine at 10.5%, Sean Perryman at 7.3%, Xavier Warren at 4.8%.
UPDATE 7:38 pm – With 706/2,584 precincts reporting, McAuliffe’s at 61.1% and obviously has won this easily (Carroll Foy’s at 20.4%, McClellan’s at 11.7%, Fairfax at 4.0%, Carter at 2.8%).
UPDATE 7:34 pm – Ben Tribbett calls a couple House of Delegates races: “Linwood Blizzard wins the #HD99 Democratic primary and will face GOP incumbent Margaret Ransone in November.”; “PROJECTION 7:31 P.M. Mark Earley Jr. has been nominated in the GOP primary for #HD68. His Democratic opponent has not been determined yet.”
UPDATE 7:32 pm – With 242/2,584 precincts reporting, Mark Herring leads Jay Jones 53.1%-46.9%.
UPDATE 7:30 pm – With 245/2,584 precincts reporting, McAuliffe leads with 61.7% of the vote, followed by Jennifer Carroll Foy at 19.1%. For LG, with 236/2,584 precincts reporting, Hala Ayala leads with 40.67%, followed by Sam Rasoul at 21.0% and Mark Levine at 10.6%.
UPDATE 7:25 pm – We now have 40/2,584 precincts reporting, and McAuliffe leads with 66.2% of the vote, followed by Jennifer Carroll Foy with 17.0% and Jennifer McClellan with 8.6%. For LG, Hala Ayala leads with 37.9%, followed by Sam Rasoul with 20.4%, Mark Levine with 12.3% and Andria McClellan with 11.3%. For AG, Mark Herring leads Jay Jones 61%-39%.
UPDATE 7:17 pm – Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett tweets, “PROJECTION 7:14 P.M. Terry McAuliffe has won the Democratic nomination for Governor.” CNalysis agrees – “CALL: Terry McAuliffe (D) has won the Democratic primary for VA Governor.”
UPDATE 7:04 pm – CNalysis has called the following races: “Incumbent Delegate Jeff Bourne (D) has won the Democratic primary for VA HD-71 in the Richmond area”; “Incumbent Delegate Jay Jones (D) has won the Democratic primary for VA HD-89 in the Hampton Roads area.”; “Incumbent Delegate Lamont Bagby (D) has won the Democratic primary for VA HD-74 in the Richmond area.”
It’s 7 pm, and polls are now closed in Virginia. In this live blog of the election returns, I’ll primarily be checking the State Board of Elections website, VPAP and Decision Desk HQ, among other sources (e.g., Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett’s Twitter feed and the CNalysis Twitter feed). Feel free to use the comments section of this post to report what you’re hearing. The races I’ll be closely watching are, in roughly the following order: 1) the highly competitive Democratic LG primary – will Sam Rasoul defeat Hala Ayala, who was endorsed by Gov. Ralph Northam, Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn, etc? will there be any surprises?; 2) the Democratic gubernatorial primary – will Terry McAuliffe win decisively, as expected? who will finish second?; 3) the Democratic AG primary – will Mark Herring win big, as expected?; 4) key Democratic House of Delegates primaries (HD2, HD45, HD50, HD68, HD79, HD84, HD86, etc.); 5) Clean Virginia/Michael Bills/Sonja Smith/etc. vs. several Virginia House Democratic incumbents; 6) the HD09 and HD83 Republican House of Delegates primaries, largely to see how far right and Trumpist the Virginia GOP is getting); 7) the Alexandria mayoral (Justin Wilson vs. Allison Silberberg) and city council races; 8) the Arlington County Board race between Takis Karantonis and Chanda Choun.
I’m also very interested in what turnout will look like today. For comparison purposes, turnout in 2017, the last VA Dem gubernatorial primary (between Ralph Northam and Tom Perriello), was 542,858, while the 2009 VA Dem gubernatorial primary (between Creigh Deeds, Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran) saw turnout of 319,168. In contrast, turnout in 2013, when Dems had LG (Ralph Northam vs. Aneesh Chopra) and AG (Mark Herring vs. Justin Fairfax) primaries – but no governor’s primary – was just 144,856. Also, turnout for the 2006 Jim Webb vs. Harris Miller U.S. Senate Democratic primary was 155,784. Turnout for the 2005 VA Dem LG primary was 175,170. Will turnout today end up closer to 2017 (543k), to 2009 (319k), or to 2013 (145k)? We’ll see very soon…