Home 2021 Elections New AARP/Wason Center Poll of Virginia: McAuliffe 50%-Youngkin 41%; Ayala 52%-Sears 42%;...

New AARP/Wason Center Poll of Virginia: McAuliffe 50%-Youngkin 41%; Ayala 52%-Sears 42%; Herring 53%-Miyares 41%; Dems Up 50%-43% for House of Delegates


Good to get a high-quality poll of the Virginia governor’s race, after months of mostly less-than-high-quality polls (e.g., Youngkin “internals,” right-wing outfits like “Trafalgar” and “Spry Strategies”…). To see all the polls so far, click here. As for the results from the new AARP and Christopher Newport University (CNU) Wason Center for Civic Leadership poll, see below. The key takeaways are as follows:

  • “Former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Glenn Youngkin, 50% to 41%, among Virginia likely voters, with 6% undecided.”
  • “For lieutenant governor, Democrat Hala Ayala leads Republican Winsome Sears, 52% to 42%, with 6% undecided.”
  • “Seeking a third term, current Attorney General Mark Herring leads Republican Jason Miyares, 53% to 41%, with 6% undecided.”
  • Democrats lead Republicans by 7 points among likely voters on the generic ballot test for the House of Delegates, 50% to 43%.”
  • McAuliffe is doing particularly well among women (55% to 36%) and younger voters (54% to 31%), while Youngkin has very solid support from the Republican base (95%).”
  • “Regionally, Youngkin is strongest in South/Southwestern Virginia (53% to 37%), while McAuliffe does well in Northern Virginia (59% to 33%), the Richmond area (48% to 40%) and Hampton Roads (52% to 41%).”
  • Ayala’s support is driven primarily by younger voters (60% to 31%), Black voters (84% to 6%) and women (55% to 38%). Sears holds the Republican base (95%), voters in the South/Southwest region (54% to 37%) and a slight majority of white voters (51% to 44%).”
  • “Among the conventional Democratic base of women, Black voters and younger voters, incumbent Herring’s support slightly outperforms his running mates higher on the ballot.”
  • The demographics and cross-tabs on this poll, unlike some previous polls, look ok…or at least nothing jumping out at the moment as weird or wacky. Your thoughts? (P.S. Standard words of caution, of course: don’t get overconfident, work like the race is tied, make sure you VOTE in this election, etc.)


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