“BIG” Early Voting in Deep-Blue Northern Virginia Saturday; “Very clear that Democrats are voting big right now and Republicans not keeping up”

See below for some very interesting – and encouraging – early voting stats from yesterday, as well as some early-Sunday-morning analysis by UVA Law grad Sam Shirazi. Nice job!

• “Overall take away from Saturday numbers, NOVA big again especially Arlington. Rs have pockets of strength w early voting, but also big weak spots. Can’t tell us who will win, but interesting to look at!”
• “Here’s the thing about Arlington where I live; January 6 did not go down well here, it was across the river and our police helped respond to it I remember all the sirens heading into DC. Pledging allegiance to Jan 6 flag did not help. Just saying…”
• “Better picture for Rs in Hanover County (R suburbs of Richmond). Very high early vote compared with rest of VA. Traditional R base seems to be turning out, but the problem is that new Trump voters not so much. Maybe they changes on Election Day?”
• “How bad is early voting for Rs in SW. Lee county (far SW) had 124 people vote on Saturday in person w population ~20K for ~ .6% of population. Arlington had 3K vote with population ~238K for ~ 1.3% vote. D part of VA had twice turnout“
• “To put BIG Saturday Arlington number in prospective, ~ 85,000 people voted in Arlington in 2017. Yesterday with almost 3,000 people voting in person, Arlington had almost 3.5% of its total 2017 vote in one day. And that’s not counting mail ballots!”
• “Good point by @ZacharyStarbuc1 that slow early voting on Saturday in R stronghold of Rockingham with just 153 votes. As you can see it has had consistent early vote. But maybe Rs have burned through early voters in the Valley. Ds room to grow in NOVA”
• “Picture is more mixed for Republican early voting on Saturday. Roanoke County (few R suburban counties) saw 486 in person votes, which is less than many other days. My guess R base more retired folks so weekend voting less important for them “
• “Loudoun also saw record in person early vote on Saturday with 2,996 people voting. This is just day or early voting and a lot can change, but narrative that Democratic early voting lagging behind is not accurate given these new numbers”
• “Very clear that Democrats are voting big right now and Republicans not keeping up. BUT Republicans may wait until Election Day so something to keep in mind”
• “Alexandria also saw largest day of early voting on Saturday with 1,222 voting in person. Less of a big number than Arlington, but still respectable (also Alexandria is smaller than Arlington) “
• “Arlington saw MASSIVE early vote on Saturday with 2,936 people voting in person during first day of weekend voting with expanded locations. In person voting never broke 1000 in any other day of early voting here “
• “BIG Fairfax County early vote continued on Saturday as 9,001 more people voted in person Up from 7,367 that voted on Friday. Republicans can still make up ground on Election Day, but Democrats banking a lot of votes “
• “Both parties high propensity voters seem motivated and are voting early in large numbers. Both parties low propensity voters lagging in early voting BUT Democrats seem to be focusing GOTV on getting low propensity base. Not sure what Rs are doing to get infrequent Trump voter”
• “New base in SW had had very poor turnout, particularly in Buchanan which has some of lowest in VA. This means traditional R activists very motivated, but new Trump voters not so much? But this could change on Election Day”
• “Before you say Buchanan is large rural county where early voting is hard Brunswick is large rural county with majority African-American population and it has higher early voting rate than average!”
• “Before someone jumps all over me, Virginia early vote is not going to tell us who will win. It can help us understand if GOTV operations are working and if people motivated to vote. Yes we still need to wait for Election Day vote, but let’s not pretend early vote is irrelevant.”

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTING, 10/23

Yesterday, the stwd cume “EV gap” remained at 65% (VBM -72%,In Person -60%) relative to a similar point in time in 2020. IOW, the “normal” drop-off I’d expect btw a Pres vs an “off year” stwd election is 34% (the drop-off between 2017/2016).
(1/) pic.twitter.com/oy1UFISrWr

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 24, 2021

Democrats DID have a strong day, however, in 6 larger, heavily Dem jurisdictions (Alexandria,Arlington,Fairfax County,Hampton, Portsmouth,and Richmond). The statewide % of the EV cast as of yesterday was:

2017: 36% of EV
2020: 26% of EV
10/20/2021: 22.5% (+0.8%) of EV
(2/)

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 24, 2021