Home 2021 Elections “Insane early vote on Friday with 78,783 people voting in person,...

“Insane [Virginia] early vote on Friday with 78,783 people voting in person, in spite of rain”; Over 1 Million Early Votes Cast So Far

Overall, early vote is "consistent with high turnout competitive election"; if high voting levels continue on election day itself, could hit 3 million total votes in this election...


See below for the latest on early voting trends in Virginia, with just today (Saturday) left to vote early. If you haven’t done so, please get out and VOTE – Democratic, up and down the ballot, of course – and let’s keep Virginia moving *forward*! As always, thanks to Sam Shirazi for his great work pulling so much early voting information together so quickly, first thing in the morning every day! Also, see VPAP for full details…

  • We’re now up to 1,031,668 early votes cast (760k in person, 272k by mail – not counting another 122k mail ballot applications, some of which will presumably be returned) in Virginia overall
  • Yesterday, 78,783 voted in person, a new record (and up from 64,443 the day before).
  • By CD, total early voting (in-person, by-mail, plus mail ballot applications) goes like this: VA10 (132,028); VA07 (124,677); VA08 (121,465); VA01 (120,640); VA11 (109,990); VA04 (108,043); VA05 (98,679); VA02 (95,252); VA06 (92,342); VA03 (80,620); VA09 (69,573). So we’ve got 47.9% of total early votes in “blue” CDs, 33.1% in “red” CDs, 19.1% in “purple” CDs.
  • “Insane early vote on Friday with 78,783 people voting in person, in spite of rain Not out of question that final day of early voting today could reach 100k We have already hit 1,031,668 total early votes. Final number will be well north of 1.1M” – Sam Shirazi
  • “Also 7K more mail ballots for a total of 272K and that number will continue to grow even after today. Just from these mail ballots, given they are around 75-25 Democratic, that gives Democrats around 136K net votes from mail ballots alone” – Sam Shirazi
  • Fairfax County had its best day of in person voting with 9,728 votes. If trend holds, we may see 10K+ from Fairfax today.” – Sam Shirazi
  • Crucial Loudoun also saw its best in person day with 3,487 votes cast. This may become the “crucial Waukesha” of Virginia.”  – Sam Shirazi
  • “I don’t want to pretend this is just story of Democrats voting early. There are plenty of Republicans also voting early and Red Hanover County in Richmond suburbs good example. Saw best day of in person too with 1,558. In person will not be as pro-D as mail ballots.” – Sam Shirazi
  • Another Richmond area strong point for Rs is Goochland where over 28% of registered voters have cast a ballot. But only a little more than 20K people total here. Hard to make up for big NOVA jurisdictions.” – Sam Shirazi
  • “Good news that African-American areas picking up in early vote with Hampton having best day and now decent numbers. Norfolk was weaker, wonder if it will have good day today after VP and Pharrell event.” – Sam Shirazi
  • James City County surrounding Williamsburg is insane 1/3 of registered voter turnout so far, not 1/3 of 2017 vote, 1 out of every 3 voters has already cast a ballot. This is area where both Democrats and Republicans voting heavily”  – Sam Shirazi
  • “Haven’t talked about Henrico yet. Big diverse suburb of Richmond had best in person day with 2,301 people voting. A little behind it’s more R leaning suburb neighbors, but still doing well.”  – Sam Shirazi
  • “Richmond area is really bright spot for Republicans in early vote. Still not sure how many votes they will even net with Election Day vote given Richmond city. Still not an area they will be blown out like NOVA. Part of reason early vote shows tight race.” – Sam Shirazi
  • Look here is what I’m seeing in early vote. High turnout with some areas really on [fire]. Other areas lagging, but could make up ground on Election Day. Both sides getting important parts of base out, but lagging with other parts. Consistent with high turnout competitive election”  – Sam Shirazi
  • “SW is picking up too, but lots of ground to catch up and still far behind. Lee County far SW had good day, but still nearly 1/4 vote total early vote by mail. Tells me some of early vote is Democratic. Still chance show up on Election Day, but need to see” – Sam Shirazi
  • “When all early votes are in, well above 1.1M and maybe closer to 1.2M. 2017 turnout was 2.6M so at a minimum, early vote will represent at least 43% of total 2017 vote. Given early vote rising each day, Election Day may be big as more voters tuning in 3M total votes not out of ?” – Sam Shirazi




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