Home 2023 Elections Analysis of Virginia “Redistricting Winners and Losers”: In the End, There Are...

Analysis of Virginia “Redistricting Winners and Losers”: In the End, There Are Only a Few Truly Competitive Districts

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See below for “Redistricting Winners and Losers” (source: VPAP). A few takeaways include the following (note: the number of districts may not add up due to pairing/tripling of incumbents, etc.):

  • In the State Senate,  despite all the talk of the redistricting amendment giving voters a lot more competitive districts, things actually got LESS competitive for 18 out of 40 incumbents and barely changed for another 5 incumbents. For the remaining Senators, in several cases the districts became somewhat less UNcompetitive, but still are solidly “red” (SD4, SD5, SD8, SD9, SD26) or solidly “blue” (SD13, SD18, SD29, SD35, SD36, SD38). That leaves the only a handful of districts – SD4 (currently held by Democrat John Edwards, but was won by Glenn Youngkin with 54.7% of the vote in 2021); SD16 (currently held by Republican Siobhan Dunnavant, but was won by Terry McAuliffe with 52.8% of the vote in 2021); SD20 (currently held by Democrat Lynnwood Lewis, but was won by Glenn Youngkin with 57.1% of the vote in 2021); SD24 (currently held by Democrat Monty Mason, but was won by Glenn Youngkin with 51.3% of the vote in 2021); SD31 (currently held by Republican Jill Vogel, but was won by Glenn Youngkin with just 50.0% of the vote in 2021) – where they became truly competitive or where an incumbent seriously was hurt by redistricting. 
  • In the House of Delegates, there was little change in 30 districts (HD3, HD4, HD5, HD8, HD9, HD11, HD13 – Marcus Simon, HD14, HD16, HD17, HD18 – Eileen Filler-Corn, HD28, HD33, HD34, HD43, HD44 – Israel O’Quinn, HD45, HD46, HD48, HD54, HD61, HD63, HD68, HD70, HD75, HD82, HD85, HD90, HD97, HD99) . Things actually got LESS competitive (better for the incumbent) in 29 districts (HD6 – Kathleen Murphy, HD10, HD12, HD13 – Kaye Kory, HD18 – Kathy Tran, HD20, HD23, HD24 – Elizabeth Guzman, HD25, HD26, HD35, HD36 – John Avoli, HD42, HD47, HD51, HD67, HD72, HD73, HD74, HD78 – Dawn Adams, HD79, HD80, HD83, HD86, HD87, HD91, HD93 – Angelia Williams Graves, HD98 – Glenn Davis and Barry Knight, HD100 – Tim Anderson and Rob Bloxom). That leaves 26 districts where things got worse for the incumbent, but most of these remain solidly “blue” (HD1, HD6 – Rip Sullivan, HD7, HD24 – Luke Torian, HD38, HD78 – Betsy Carr, HD88, HD93 – Jackie Glass) or solidly “red” (HD30, HD32, HD36 – Ronnie Campbell, HD37, HD40, HD44 – Will Wampler, HD49, HD50, HD52, HD59, HD60). The main districts where things either got significantly worse or closer to competitive territory for the incumbent were HD31 (currently held by Democrat Wendy Gooditis, but won by Glenn Youngkin with 67.6% of the vote in 2021); HD55 (currently held by Republican Rob Bell, but won by Terry McAuliffe with 55.5% of the vote in 2021);  HD58 (currently held by Democrat Rodney Willett, but where Glenn Youngkin got 47.2% of the vote in 2021); HD69 (currently held by Democrat Mike Mullin, but won by Glenn Youngkin with 55.9% of the vote in 2021); HD71 (currently held by Republican Amanda Batten, but where Glenn Youngkin only won with 53.6% of the vote in 2021); HD84 (currently held by Democrat Nadarius Clark, but where Glenn Youngkin got 48.6% of the vote in 2021); HD98 (currently held by Democrat Kelly Fowler, but won by Glenn Youngkin with 63.1% of the vote in 2021).

 

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