CNalysis’ Initial 2023 Virginia General Assembly Ratings: “56% chance of a Democratic majority in the House of Delegates,” 63% Chance in State Senate

Good work by CNalysis/Chaz Nuttycombe, who just put out his initial Virginia State Senate and House of Delegates election ratings for 2023. Unlike some of the other groups out there, Chaz lives in Virginia and has been following it closely for several years. So whether you agree or disagree with all of his ratings, there’s no question that he’s put a huge amount of thought and effort into thinking through them. With that, here are the takeaways from his ratings, followed by the House and Senate maps. For more detail, including clickable maps and Chaz’s analysis, click here.

• “Democrats enter into the year at a benefit in both chambers by possessing a much larger number of seats considered ‘Safe’ in their column: 46 Solid D seats in the House and 18 Solid D seats in the Senate. Meanwhile, the GOP has just 40 Solid R seats in the House and 14 Solid R seats in the Senate.”
• “Democrats now have a leg-up thanks to the elimination of most Republican gerrymanders that were left intact under the old lines, coupled with the population shifts toward the Urban Crescent of Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Hampton Roads and away from rural Virginia.”
• “Each state legislative chamber in Virginia is forecasted as ‘Tilt Democratic,’ with a 56% chance of a Democratic majority in the House of Delegates and a 9% chance of a tie (which would result in a power-sharing agreement between both parties), and a 63% chance of a Democratic majority in the State Senate and a 1% chance of a Democratic supermajority.”
• Key State Senate districts to keep an eye on (and to donate to Democratic candidates, volunteer in, etc.) include SD31 (Republican Juan Pablo Segura vs Democrat Russet Perry or Zach Cummings), SD16 (Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg vs. incumbent Republican Siobhan Dunnavant), SD17 (Democrat Clint Jenkins vs. Republican Hermie Sadler or Emily Brewer), SD24 (Sen. Monty Mason vs. Republican Danny Diggs) and SD27 (Democrat Joel Griffin or Ben Litchfield or Luke Radley Wright vs. Republican Tara Durant or Matt Strickland).
• Key House of Delegates to keep an eye on (and to donate to Democratic candidates, volunteer in, etc.) include HD21 (Democrat Joshua Thomas vs. Republican Joshua Joseph Quill or John Stirrup),  HD22 (Democrat Travis Nembhard vs. Republican Ian Lovejoy), HD57 (Democrat Bob Shippee or Susanna Gibson vs. Republican David Owen), HD65 (Democrat Joshua Cole vs. Republican Lee Peters), HD82 (Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams or Victor McKenzie or Brandon Riley vs. Republican incumbent Kim Taylor), HD97 (Democrat Michael Feggans vs. Republican incumbent Karen Greenhalgh), etc.

Finally – stay tuned and get involved, as these elections are CRUCIAL to the future of Virginia and to stopping Glenn Youngkin’s hard-right agenda, including restricting women’s reproductive freedom/choice, harming the environment, engaging in voter suppression, waging war on public schools, etc.