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Virginia Polls Opening in <44 Hours ; Here Are Some Thoughts/Ratings on the House of Delegates Democratic Primaries

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Yesterday, I posted some thoughts/ratings on the Virginia Senate Democratic primaries being held this Tuesday, along with links to my endorsements and rough ratings for where I see these races right now. Today, I’m turning to the House of Delegates Democratic primaries; see below for more.

VA HOUSE OF DELEGATES DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

  • HD07 (Western Fairfax): Mary Barthelson vs. Paul Berry vs. Shyamali Hauth vs. Karen Keys-Gamarra (I’d say this one leans to Karen Keys-Gamarra, based on her endorsement by long-time/retiring Del. Ken Plum. However, don’t count out Shyamali Hauth or Paul Berry)
  • HD15 (Fairfax): Laura Jane Cohen vs. Eric Schmidt vs. Henri Thompson (Very likely Laura Jane Cohen, based on her name ID, the fact that she’s the only elected official in the field, her many endorsements, the fact that women tend to do very well versus men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly – let alone against two men, etc.)
  • HD19 (Fairfax/Prince William): Rozia Henson vs. Makya Little vs. Natalie Shorter (This one is a tossup; could go to any of the three candidates in the race)
  • HD26 (Loudoun): Kannan Srinivasan vs. Sirisha Kompalli (Very likely Kannan Srinivasan, based on massive advantages in fundraising, endorsements, etc.)
  • HD54 (Charlottesville): Bellamy Brown vs. Katrina Callsen vs. Dave Norris (Likely Katrina Callsen, given her big advantage in fundraising, the fact that women tend to do very well versus men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly – let alone against two men; her numerous endorsements; etc.)
  • HD55 (Albemarle/Louisa/Fluvanna): Amy Laufer vs. Kellen Squire (Lean or Likely Amy Laufer, based on her fundraising advantage, the fact that she has higher name ID from previously being an elected official and running in a high-profile/big-$$$ VA Senate primary four years ago, the fact that women tend to do very well versus men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly, her endorsements, etc. To win this, Kellen Squire would need a massive “ground game”/field operation.)
  • HD57 (Western Henrico): Susanna Gibson vs. Bob Shippee (Leans Susanna Gibson, based on her fundraising advantage and the fact that women tend to do very well versus men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly)
  • HD79 (Richmond): Rae Cousins vs. Ann Lambert vs. Richard Walker (Likely Rae Cousins, based on her massive fundraising advantage and the fact that she’s by far the best candidate in this race)
  • HD80 (Henrico): Destiny Levere Bolling vs. John Dantzler (Likely Destiny Levere Bolling, based on her fundraising advantage, the fact that women tend to do very well versus men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly, her many endorsements, etc.)
  • HD81 (Eastern Henrico): Del. Delores McQuinn vs. Terrence Walker (Likely Del. Delores McQuinn, based on her name ID as a long-time incumbent, her massive financial advantage, etc.)
  • HD82 (Petersburg/Dinwiddie): Kimberly Pope Adams vs. Victor McKenzie (Leans Victor McKenzie; McKenzie has the financial advantage and endorsements from VA Sen. Lamont Bagby, Rep. Abigail Spanberger, VA Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, etc. However, Adams has a shot, given that women tend to do very well versus men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly and that she has endorsements of her own. Could be close.)
  • HD84 (Suffolk/Isle of Wight): Nadarius Clark vs. Michele Joyce (Likely Nadarius Clark, based on his huge financial advantage, his previous incumbency/name ID, his many endorsements – VA House Dem Leader Don Scott, Sen. Mamie Locke, former Del. Jay Jones, etc.)
  • HD92 (Norfolk/Chesapeake): Bonita Anthony vs. Kim Sudderth (Leans Kim Sudderth, based mostly on her fundraising advantage, but don’t count Bonita Anthony out.)
  • HD95 (Virginia Beach/Norfolk): Alex Askew vs. Rick James (Very likely Alex Askew, based on the fact that he was previously elected delegate, has high name ID, has a huge advantage in fundraising and endorsements, etc.)
  • HD96 (Virginia Beach): Del. Kelly Convirs-Fowler vs. Susan Hippen vs. Brandon Hutchins vs. Sean Monteiro (Tossup or *possibly* leans towards Kelly Convirs-Fowler, based on her being the de facto incumbent in this race against three opponents – who could split the anti-incumbent vote, and late money from Sonjia Smith and Clean Virginia; although note that late money has also gone to Susan Hippen from Dominion and to both Sean Monteiro and Brandon Hutchins from Clean Virginia. Bottom line – it’s possible that Convirs-Fowler, Hippen or Monteiro could win this on Tuesday.)
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