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Virginia Polls Open Tuesday 6 am; Here Are Some Thoughts/Ratings on the Senate Democratic Primaries

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This coming Tuesday, Democrats will hold primaries for State Senate, House of Delegates and numerous important local offices. See below for a list of the Senate Democratic primaries, along with links to my endorsements and rough ratings for where I see these races right now. I’ll try to get to the House of Delegates primaries and also some key local races later this weekend…

VA SENATE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

  • SD04 (Roanoke Valley): Trish White-Boyd vs. Luke Priddy vs. DA Pierce (I’d say this one leans to White-Boyd due to her money advantage and name ID, plus the fact that women tend to do very well against men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly seats)
  • SD11 (Cville/Nelson/Amherst): Sen. Creigh Deeds vs. Del. Sally Hudson (Tossup. This one really comes down to the demographics of voters, including their average age, gender, etc. – a younger, more diverse electorate helps Hudson – and whether they’re disproportionately from Charlottesville/Albemarle or not – the more they’re from the core “blue” areas, the better for Hudson)
  • SD13 (Henrico/Petersburg/Hopewell): Sen. Joe Morrissey vs. Del. Lashrecse Aird (Given her money advantage and endorsements, plus the fact that she’s a woman – and women tend to do very well against men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly seats – and that Morrissey has received nothing but bad publicity the past few months, Aird is likely to win this one…unless Republicans turn out in droves for Morrissey, but that’s unlikely)
  • SD14 (Richmond/Henrico): Sen. Lamont Bagby vs. Katie Gooch (Sen. Bagby is very likely if not 100% certain to win this one)
  • SD18 (Chesapeake/Portsmouth): Sen. Louise Lucas vs. Sen. Lionell Spruill (Tossup on this one, although my gut tells me that Lucas will eke it out)
  • SD21 (Norfolk): Del. Angelia Williams-Graves vs. Andria McClellan (I’m thinking this one leans towards Williams-Graves, in part due to the fact that it’s a “majority-minority” district, Williams-Graves’ endorsements by former Gov. Ralph Northam and VA House Dems Leader Don Scott, etc.)
  • SD27 (Fredericksburg area): Joel Griffin vs. Ben Litchfield (Based on the fact that he has a huge cash advantage, I’d say Griffin is favored here, unless Litchfield’s “ground game” can overcome that)
  • SD29 (Prince William/Stafford): Sen. Jeremy McPike vs. Del. Elizabeth Guzman (There’s been some leaked internal polling indicating that Guzman is leading, but take those with a grain of salt of course; a bigger factor is that  this is a majority-minority district, including 25% Hispanic/Latino; plus women tend to do well against men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly, so…I’d guess this one is a tossup or even leans Guzman, as long as she manages to get her voters out, which can be easier said than done in odd/off-year elections like this one)
  • SD31 (Loudoun/Fauquier): Russet Perry vs. Zach Cummings (Strongly leans Perry due to her big cash advantage, as well as far more endorsements and the fact that women tend to do well against men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly)
  • SD32 (Loudoun): Del. Suhas Subramanyam vs. former Del. Ibraheem Samirah (Likely Subramanyam due to a big cash advantage, many more endorsements, etc.)
  • SD33 (Prince William/Fairfax): Former Del. Hala Ayala vs. former Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy (Likely Carroll Foy due in part to a big cash advantage)
  • SD35 (Fairfax): Sen. Dave Marsden vs. Heidi Drauschak (Drauschak has outraised Marsden, $770k to $188k, in 2023, plus women tend to beat men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly, but Marsden works very hard, has received some big endorsements – Sen. Tim Kaine, Sen. Mark Warner, Rep. Gerry Connolly, etc. – and supposedly has knocked on tons of doors in this district personally – although so has Drauschak – so…tossup or maybe even leans Drauschak?)
  • SD36 (Fairfax): Sen. George Barker vs. Stella Pekarsky (Leans Pekarsky for a bunch of reasons, including: 1) the district is overwhelmingly “new” to Barker, while Pekarsky represents much of it on the Fairfax County School Board; 2) Pekarsky is competitive in terms of $$$; 3) women tend to beat men in Virginia Democratic primaries for General Assembly. On the other hand, Barker has been endorsed by many of his colleagues in the VA Senate, plus former Governors Northam and McAuliffe, so all of that will help him.)
  • SD37 (Fairfax/Falls Church): Sen. Chap Petersen vs. Saddam Salim (Leans Petersen due to his cash advantage, more than anything, plus the fact that he’ll get some Republicans voting for him – although what percentage, it’s hard to say. But Salim still has a shot in this highly diverse district, much of which is “new” to Petersen)
  • SD40 (Arlington): Sen. Barbara Favola vs. James DeVita (100% safe for Favola, given massive advantages in name ID, endorsements, cash, etc.)

So what are your predictions/preferences on these races?

 

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