UPDATE 10:30 pm – So now, if Virginia Dems win HD82 (@kimadamsforva), HD97 (@MikeFeggans) and HD57 (@SusannaSGibson), we’ll have a 53-47 majority in the House of Delegates, along with either a 21-19 or 22-18 Senate majority!
UPDATE 10:25 pm – HUGE news from Ben Tribbett – “10:12PM PROJECTION: Joshua Cole (D) defeats Lee Peters (R) in House District 65. REPUBLICANS HAVE LOST CONTROL OF THE HOUSE OF DELEGATES. DEMOCRATS ARE ONE SEAT FROM A MAJORITY Current House: 44 GOP, 50 DEM, 6 UND”
UPDATE 10:24 pm – Congrats to Deshundra Jefferson (D) on her election as the new Chair of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors!
UPDATE 10:14 pm – VERY close race in SD24 between Sen. Monty Mason (D) and Danny Diggs (R). Hearing that we probably won’t know until Monday, with W&M provisionals and late absentees – both of which will go heavily Dem – deciding it.
UPDATE 10:04 pm – Ugh, bad news, as Ben Tribbett calls SD27 for Tara Durant (R) over Joel Griffin (D) and Baxter Ennis (R) over Karen Jenkins (D) in HD89. Unfortunate.
UPDATE 9:49 pm – Per “Not Larry Sabato,”9:47PM PROJECTION: Chris Obenshain (R) defeats Lily Franklin (D) in House District 41. Current House: 41 GOP, 48 DEM, 11 UND.” Very unfortunate, as Obenshain will be HORRIBLE, while Franklin would have been excellent.
UPDATE 9:44 pm – Unfortunately, insurrectionist/extremist Geary Higgins (R) has won HD30 over Rob Banse (D) – as Higgins leads 19,589-16,866 with just 1,728 early votes left. Huge, huge mistake by voters in this district.
UPDATE 9:37 pm – I agree with Sam Shirazi on this: “Looks like everything is in and Josh Thomas will win Virginia HD-21 This one is huge for Democrats and with a few races still left to call, right now they are favorites to take majority in House of Delegates”
UPDATE 9:27 pm – Dems closing in on a House of Delegates majority; “NLS” calls HD21 for Democrat Josh Thomas over Republican John Stirrup.
UPDATE 9:16 pm – Chaz Nuttycombe has called SD17 for Emily Brewer (R) over Clint Jenkins (D). With a stronger candidate, Dems could have won this seat.
UPDATE 9:14 pm – As expected, Sen. David Suetterlein (R) has defeated Trish White-Boyd (D) in SD04. Sigh…
UPDATE 9:05 pm – Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett calls the Senate for Dems: “DEMOCRATS HAVE WON THE VIRGINIA SENATE. Aaron Rouse (D) wins seat 21 and the majority.” And with that, Glenn Youngkin becomes a lame duck! LOL
UPDATE 9:00 pm – Looking on VPAP at the remaining early vote, which should lean strongly Democratic, it looks like Democrats Josh Cole (HD65), Kimberly Pope Adams (HD82), Susanna Gibson (HD57), Michael Feggans (HD97) and Karen Jenkins (HD89) all still could win. Stay tuned…
UPDATE 8:53 pm – Not a surprise that Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett called this one for Ian Lovejoy (R), but it’s a bummer nonetheless, as Travis Nembhard would have been a MUCH better delegate.
UPDATE 8:46 pm – Another important win for Democrats, in this case Del. Rodney Willett (HD58), which Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett just called.
UPDATE 8:43 pm – Per Sam Shirazi, “There basically is no path for GOP to win the Senate although there is not enough vote yet in SD-22 to call it Democrats on track to hold Virginia State Senate” Phew!
UPDATE 8:35 pm – HUGE call by Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett – “Russet Perry (D) defeats Juan Pablo Segura (R) in Senate District 31. Current Senate: 14 GOP, 20 DEM, 6 UND”
UPDATE 8:32 pm – Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett calls SD30 for Del. Danica Roem. Awesome!
UPDATE 8:29 pm – With 40% of the vote counted, Mike Feggans (D) leads Del. Karen Greenhalgh (R) 50.5%-49.5%. And in HD82, Del. Kim Taylor (R) leads Kimberly Pope Adams (D) with 54% counted.
UPDATE 8:25 pm – With 67% of the vote counted, Josh Thomas (D) leads John Stirrup (R) 55%-45% in HD21. And with 94% counted in HD22, Ian Lovejoy (R) leads Travis Nembhard 52%-48%.
UPDATE 8:24 pm – With 48% of the vote counted, Susanna Gibson (D) leads David Owen (R) 50.3%-49.7%. Wow.
UPDATE 8:21 pm – With half the vote in, the Richmond casino continues to get crushed, 72.3%-27.7%. Such a shame…LOL
UPDATE 8:17 pm – Per Sam Shirazi, “Russet Perry wins in- person early vote in Virginia SD-31 in Loudoun Not over yet, but good sign for her as mail ballots will break heavily for her”
UPDATE 8:12 pm – Ben Tribbett calls HD94 for Phil Hernandez (D). Congratulations!
UPDATE 8:08 pm – Big call by Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett: “Schuyler VanValkenburg (D) defeats Siobhan Dunnavant (R) in Senate District 16. Current Senate: 13 GOP, 12 DEM, 15 UND”
UPDATE 8:05 pm – Now with 37% of the vote counted in SD27, Joel Griffin (D) narrowly leads Tara Durant (R) 48.0%-47.5%.
UPDATE 8:02 pm – With 30% of the vote counted in SD24, Danny Diggs (R) narrowly leads Sen. Monty Mason (D) 51%-49%. And with 20% of the vote counted in SD31, Juan Pablo Segura (R) leads Russet Perry (D) 53%-47%. Still a long way to go in both of these crucial races.
UPDATE 7:59 pm – With 25% of the vote counted in SD16, Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg (D) leads Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant (R) 53%-47%.
UPDATE 7:57 pm – With 28% of the vote counted in HD82, Kimberly Pope Adams (D) leads Kim Taylor (R) 50.4%-49.6%. Go Adams!
UPDATE 7:55 pm – With 29% of the vote counted, the Richmond Casino so far is getting crushed, 75.8%-24.2%.
UPDATE 7:53 pm – With 16% counted in HD21, Josh Thomas (D) leads John Stirrup (R) 66%-34%. And with 16% counted in HD22, Travis Nembhard (D) leads Ian Lovejoy (R) 65%-35%.
UPDATE 7:47 pm – With 26% of the vote counted in HD58, Del. Rodney Willett (D) leads Riley Shaia (R) 51%-49%. With 24% of the vote counted in HD65, Josh Cole (D) leads Lee Peters (R) 59%-41%. And with 15% of the vote counted in HD89, Karen Jenkins (D) leads Baxter Ennis (R) 55%-45%.
UPDATE 7:44 pm – With 15% of the vote counted in SD17, Clint Jenkins (D) leads Emily Brewer (R) 54%-46%. Go Jenkins!
UPDATE 7:41 pm – With 33% of the vote counted in HD97, Mike Feggans (D) leads Del. Karen Greenhalgh (R) 52%-48%. Go Feggans!
UPDATE 7:38 pm – With 21% of the votes counted in SD30, Del. Danica Roem (D) leads Bill Woolf (R) 54%-46%. Go Roem!
UPDATE 7:37 pm – With 15% of the votes counted in SD27, Joel Griffin (D) is leading Tara Durant (R) 53%-43%. Go Griffin!
UPDATE 7:35 pm – With 7/43 precincts reporting in SD24, Sen. Monty Mason (D) is leading Danny Diggs (R) 55.1%-44.7%. Go Mason!
UPDATE 7:29 pm – With 6% of votes counted, the Richmond casino is trailing 76.4%-23.6%.
UPDATE 7:22 pm – Phil Hernandez (D) is looking good in HD94, which as Sam Shirazi points out is “basically a safe Dem seat.”
UPDATE 7:18 pm – CNalysis has essentially called 78/100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates and 30/40 seats in the State Senate. All of these are deep-red or deep-blue, so not really competitive.
UPDATE 7:07 pm – The NY Times has already called 32 races (18 Dems, 14 Rs) in the House of Delegates; also 5 races (2 Dems, 3 Rs) in the State Senate. These are all either deep-blue or deep-red, non-competitive/uncontested districts.
UPDATE 7:01 pm – Polls are now closed, but stay in line to vote if you’re in line. Also, note that there are very few truly competitive districts (see below), so really we could call all but a handful right now. Instead, we’ll mostly just focus on the competitive races as results start to come in…hopefully starting shortly.
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As always, I’ll be live blogging Virginia’s election results as they come in tonight (polls close at 7 pm – make sure you stay in line and cast your ballot!), with results from the State Board of Elections, VPAP, CNalysis’ cool new results page, etc. I’ll also be keeping an eye on Twitter feeds from political gurus like Not Larry Sabato (Ben Tribbett), Sam Shirazi, Chaz Nuttycombe, etc. [Note: check out the Election Day Open Thread, particularly the comments section, for tons of information from today…]
The main races I’ll be focusing on are the following competitive races for State Senate, House of Delegates and local offices:
COMPETITIVE VA STATE SENATE RACES
- SD04 (Roanoke Valley): Trish White-Boyd (D) vs. Sen. David Suetterlein (R)
- SD16 (Henrico): Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg (D) vs. Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant (R)
- SD17 (Henrico/Petersburg/Hopewell: Del. Clint Jenkins (D) vs. Del. Emily Brewer (R)
- SD24 (Newport News/York/Williamsburg/Poquoson/James City County): Sen. Monty Mason (D) vs. Danny Diggs (R)
- SD27 (Fredericksburg area): Joel Griffin (D) vs. Del. Tara Durant (R)
- SD30 (Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park): Del. Danica Roem vs. Bill Woolf (R)
- SD31 (Loudoun/Fauquier): Russet Perry (D) vs. Juan Pablo Segura (R)
COMPETITIVE VA HOUSE OF DELEGATES RACES
- HD21 (Prince William): Josh Thomas (D) vs. John Stirrup (R)
- HD22 (Prince William): Travis Nembhard (D) vs. Ian Lovejoy (R)
- HD30 (Loudoun/Fauquier): Rob Banse (D) vs. Geary Higgins (R)
- HD41 (Montgomery/Roanoke County): Lily Franklin (D) vs. Chris Obenshain (R)
- HD57 (Henrico/Goochland): Susanna Gibson (D) vs. David Owen (R)
- HD58 (Henrico): Del. Rodney Willett (D) vs. Riley Shaia (R)
- HD64 (Stafford): Leonard Lacey (D) vs. Paul Milde (R)
- HD65 (Stafford/Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania): Joshua Cole (D) vs. Lee Peters (R)
- HD71 (James City County/Williamsburg/New Kent): Jessica Anderson (D) vs. Del. Amanda Batten (R)
- HD75 (Chesterfield/Hopewell/Prince George): Stephen Miller-Pitts (D) vs. Del. Carrie Coyner (R)
- HD82 (Petersburg/Dinwiddie/Prince George/Surry): Kimberly Pope Adams (D) vs. Del. Kim Taylor (R)
- HD84 (Suffolk/Isle of Wight/Franklin/Cheseapeake): Nadarius Clark (D) vs. Michael Dillender (R)
- HD86 (Hampton/York/Poquoson): Jarris Taylor (D) vs. Del. A.C. Cordoza (R)
- HD89 (Cheseapeake/Suffolk): Karen Jenkins (D) vs. Baxter Ennis (R)
- HD94 (Norfolk): Phil Hernandez (D) vs. Andy Pittman (R)
- HD97 (Virginia Beach): Michael Feggans (D) vs. Del. Karen Greenhalgh (R)
COMPETITIVE LOCAL RACES (just a sampling…there are many others)
- Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chair: Democrat Deshundra Jefferson vs. Republican Jeanine Lawson
- Prince William County Board of Supervisors, Coles District: Democrat Idris O’Connor vs. Republican Yesli Vega
- Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, Springfield District: Democrat Albert Vega vs. Republican incumbent Pat Herrity
- Albemarle County School Board, at-large: Democrat Allison Spillman vs. Republican Meg Scalia Bryce
- Richmond Casino Referendum
It also will be interesting to see how high turnout ends up – close to the least “off/odd-year” election in 2019, or closer to the 2021 statewide elections or what? Oh, and keep in mind that results on election night will most likely see Election Day results reported first, and that Election Day voting will likely skew Republican, while early voting will skew Democratic. (See What happens after polls close: A 2023 VPM News voter guide for more information on this). So adjust expectations, anxiety, etc. accordingly. 🙂
In general, I’d say a decent-to-good night for Democrats would be holding a majority, even if just 21-19, in the VA State Senate and at least getting to 50-50 in the House of Delegates. A very good night for Democrats would be maintaining our 22-18 State Senate majority and taking control of the House of Delegates, even if just by a 51-49 margin. And an EXCELLENT night would see Democrats increasing our margin in the State Senate (to 23-17 or even 24-16) and getting to 53+ House of Delegates seats. Also, it would be great if Democrats won the Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chair race, the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Springfield magisterial district race, and numerous important races for Board of Supervisors and School Board around the Commonwealth. Which races are you following?
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