2025 Virginia House of Delegates Election Preview

by Sam Shirazi

There is not just a Governor’s race next year in Virginia, but also all 100 seats in the House of Delegates are up for election. Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority which they won in the 2023 elections, with a special election pending in HD-26.

Control of the House of Delegates will be critical for whoever ends up being Governor. If likely Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger wins, she would need a Democratic House to pass her agenda, as opposed to one controlled by Republicans who will no doubt try to block Democratic legislation.

The House of Delegates also will play an important role in passing amendments to the Virginia Constitution, which then goes to voters in a referendum. Currently, Democrats have proposed three amendments – to protect reproductive rights, marriage equality, and voting rights. Democrats would need to win the House again in November 2025 in order for those amendments to appear on the ballot in November 2026 for voters to decide.

Now that the stakes have been laid out, let’s take a look at the individual seats that will decide who controls the majority and whether Democrats can make gains like the last time Trump was in the White House. VPAP has a helpful map to look at the 2024 results by Virginia General Assembly districts. For each seat, the swing comparing the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections has also been estimated to give a sense where each party has gained or lost support during those four years.

Democratic Defense Seats

There are 48 seats where Harris won by at least 10 points, meaning that Democrats would need just three more seats to get a majority. In addition, if Democrats just hold all the seats they currently have, Democrats could get to a majority without flipping any seats. Here are the three seats that Democrats need to defend in order to keep their majority – and where Harris won by less than 10%.

HD-21 Western Prince William
2020-2024 Swing: Towards GOP 4%
2023 Margin: Dem +3.5%
2024 Margin: Dem +5.5%

This is the seat currently held by Democrats that was the closest in 2023, when Del. Josh Thomas was able to give Democrats the majority. The seat is in the outer suburbs of Northern Virginia and is also almost 1/4 Hispanic, meaning Democrats shouldn’t take it for granted given the swing that has happened here since the 2020 election.

HD-97 Virginia Beach
2020-2024 Swing: Towards GOP 4%
2023 Margin: Dem 5%
2024 Margin: Dem 8%

Democratic Del. Michael Feggans flipped this seat by knocking off an incumbent in a hard-fought race in 2023. He likely will face another former GOP Delegate, Tim Anderson, who is seeking a comeback. While Feggans starts off as a slight favorite, Democrats need to make sure their voters come out in this Virginia Beach seat that swung towards the GOP since 2020.

HD-65 Fredericksburg
2020-2024 Swing: Towards GOP 3%
2023 Margin: Dem 6%
2024 Margin: Dem 9%

Del. Josh Cole made a comeback in 2023 by winning back this Fredericksburg area seat by a healthy margin. He will start off in a strong position in 2025, but this area of Virginia is always closely fought, so Democrats will still need to work for the seat.

Democratic Offense Opportunities

Given the backlash the party in the White House usually faces in Virginia elections, there is a real possibility that Democrats could gain seats in the House of Delegates. At the same time, many of these seats have strong incumbents who may be difficult to beat even if Democrats end up having a good night.

HD-57 Western Henrico/Eastern Goochland
2020-2024 Swing: Towards Dem 4%
2023 Margin: GOP 1%
2024 Margin: Dem 9%

This seat is Democrats’ best opportunity at a flip, as it actually swung 4 percentage points more blue since 2020, despite Virginia being 4 percentage points more red overall. GOP Del. David Owen narrowly won in 2023 against Susana Gibson in a race that gained wide spread attention. This time, May Nivar seems the likely Democratic nominee, and she has a strong chance at flipping this suburban Richmond seat.

HD-75 Hopewell/Chesterfield
2020-2024 Swing: Towards Dem 1%
2023 Margin: GOP 6%
2024 Margin: Dem 6%

Incumbent GOP Del. Carrie Coyner also faces a potential tough re-election in another Richmond area seat. She faced a closer- than-expected race against Democrat Stephen Miller-Pitts in 2023, and Miller-Pitts is running again, along with Dustin Wade. Democrats have a shot at this seat if they are able to keep making gains in the suburbs and bring out their African-American base in the district.

HD-71 Williamsburg
2020-2024 Swing: Towards Dem 1%
2023 Margin: GOP 2%
2024 Margin: Dem 4.5%

GOP Del. Amanda Batten is another vulnerable incumbent after facing a closer than expected call against Democrat Jessica Anderson in 2023 in this Williamsburg-area seat. Anderson is back for 2025, seeking a rematch, and will need strong turnout among students in this college town district that has been swinging towards Democrats.

HD-82 Petersburg/Southside
2020-2024 Swing: Towards GOP 6%
2023 Margin: GOP .5%
2024 Margin: Dem 4%

This was the closest race in 2023 as GOP Del. Kim Taylor just barely defeated Democrat Kimberly Pope-Adams by 78 votes. Pope-Adams is back for a rematch and will have to turn out African-American voters in Petersburg. Taylor is hoping the rural parts of the district will come through for her again, given that the district trended red since 2020.

HD-89 Suffolk
2020-2024 Swing: Even
2023 Margin: GOP 2%
2024 Margin: Dem 3%

GOP Del. Baxter Ennis didn’t run a particularly strong campaign in 2023, barely winning this seat, making him vulnerable this time around. So far, Democrat Blaizen Bloom is running. We’ll see if anyone else decides to throw their hat in the ring in this swingy Hampton Roads seat.

HD-64 Middle Stafford
2020-2024 Swing: Towards Dems 3%
2023 Margin: GOP 9%
2024 Margin: Dem 2%

GOP Del. Paul Milde had a fairly comfortable win in 2023, despite being in a suburban Northern Virginia seat that has been trending towards Democrats. But he could be vulnerable in 2025 if Democrats target him this time in this Stafford district, with many residents connected to the Federal government.

HD-86 Hampton/Poquoson
2020-2024 Swing: Towards GOP 2%
2023 Margin: GOP 13%
2024 Margin: Dem 1%

It seemed like a fluke in 2021 when GOP Del. A.C. Cardoza beat an incumbent during the red wave that year. But Cardoza benefitted from redistricting, putting red Poquoson into his district, and he cruised to re-election in 2023. If there is a blue wave this year, this is the type of seat that could be in play on a good night for Democrats.

HD-73 Chesterfield
2020-2024 Swing: Towards Dem 8%
2023 Margin: GOP 9%
2024 Margin: Dem 1%

This was one of the biggest swings in Virginia, as this suburban Richmond seat moved towards Democrats by 8% as compared to 2020. GOP Del. Mark Earley won fairly comfortably in 2023, but is set to have a much closer race in 2025 if Democrats make a serious effort to take him on.

Blue Wave Watch

While most of the competitive seats this year will be in seats that Harris won by less than 10%, some of the seats that Trump won by less than 5 percentage points could also be competitive. It will come down to how much of a blue wave there might be and Spanberger’s margins at the top of the ticket in these seats.

HD-30 Western Loudoun/Western Fauquier
2020-2024 Swing: Towards GOP 1.5%
2023 Margin: GOP 6.5%
2024 Margin: GOP 1%

Loudoun always gets attention during election time, and GOP Del. Geary Higgins will likely face another competitive race, after facing a serious challenger in 2023. This Northern Virginia seat is fast growing and is closely linked to the Federal government meaning any backlash against Trump would be felt here first.

HD-22 Middle Prince William 
2020-2024 Swing: Towards GOP 4%
2023 Margin: GOP 5.5%
2024 Margin: GOP 1%

Democrats made a real effort here in 2023, only for GOP Del. Ian Lovejoy to win by a decent margin. This is one of the last red parts of Northern Virginia left, although Lovejoy could be in for a tougher race this time, especially if a blue wave hits in this district, with a lot of connections to the Federal government.

HD-69 York
2020-2024 Swing: Towards Dem .5%
2023 Margin: Unopposed
2024 Margin: GOP 1.5%

Democrats didn’t even bother contesting this seat in 2023, meaning that GOP Del. Chad Green cruised to victory. This time, Democrat Jered Decker is running, and Green might have more of a race in this part of Virginia that has been trending more blue.

HD-66 Spotsylvania
2020-2024 Swing: Towards GOP 1%
2023 Margin: GOP 11.5%
2024 Margin: GOP 2%

GOP Del. Bobby Orrock won by a comfortable margin in 2023 in this Spotsylvania district on the outer edges of Northern Virginia. Democrat Nicole Cole has already announced, and we’ll see if Orrock gets more of a run for his money this time.

HD-41 Blacksburg
2020-2024 Swing: Towards GOP 3.5%
2023 Margin: GOP 1%
2024 Margin: GOP 4.5%

Perhaps the biggest surprise in 2023 was that GOP Del. Chris Obenshain only won this seat by 183 votes over Democrat Lily Franklin. She is back for a rematch and will focus on getting students to vote in this seat that includes Virginia Tech. Tim Kaine did narrowly win this seat at the Senate level, and student third-party votes likely played a role in Trump’s narrow presidential win in the district. Democrats are treating it like a top-tier target, so this is one of the Trump seats most likely to flip blue next year.

HD-99 Virginia Beach
2020-2024 Swing: Towards GOP .5%
2023 Margin: GOP 14.5%
2024 Margin: GOP 4.5%

Despite the big margin of victory in 2023, GOP Del. Anne Ferrell Tata could be vulnerable if there is a blue wave and Democrats do well in Hampton Roads. 2023 Democratic nominee Cat Porterfield is running again here.

HD-100 Virginia Beach
2020-2024 Swing: Towards Dem 1%
2023 Margin: GOP 19%
2024 Margin: GOP 5%

This is another Virginia Beach seat that could be in play on a good night for Democrats, despite the big win the GOP had here in 2023. GOP Del. Rob Bloxom and 2023 Democratic nominee Charlena Jones seem set for a rematch.