UPDATE 9:03 pm – Ben Tribbett and Decision Desk HQ have both called Virginia for Kamala Harris.
UPDATE 9:01 pm – With 145/193 precincts reporting, Eugene Vindman leads Derrick Anderson in VA07 by a 51.0%-49.0% margin. Still lots of votes outstanding in blue Prince William County.
UPDATE 8:50 pm – Per Ben Tribbett, “So far we have Democrats holding 5 of their 6 seats in Virginia with the open 7th district still uncalled, while Republicans have held 4 of their 5 seats with the 2nd district still uncalled.”
UPDATE 8:39 pm – With 1,171/2,536 precincts reporting in Virginia, Trump actually leads Harris 49.4%-49.0%, but that’s a lot of blue areas simply haven’t reported yet.
UPDATE 8:26 pm – Per Ben Tribbett, “Jennifer McClellan (D) has won re-election in Virginia’s 4th Congressional District.”
UPDATE 8:14 pm – Per Ben Tribbett, “Tim Kaine (D) has won a 3rd term in the United States Senate, defeating Hung Cao (R).” Currently, with 624/2,536 precincts reporting, Kaine leads Cao 54.0%-46.0%.
UPDATE 8:07 pm – With 74/250 precincts reporting in VA04, Republican Bill Moher leads Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D), but that’s only because essentially no results have come in from heavily populated, deep-blue Henrico County or Richmond City. Really shows how the order of reporting results can create “mirages.” In the end, Rep. McClellan will EASILY win reelection.
UPDATE 8:04 pm – With 39/193 precincts reporting, Democrat Eugene Vindman leads Republican Derrick Anderson 57.5%-42.5% in VA07.
UPDATE 8:02 pm – Ben Tribbett says “Suhas Subramanyam (D) has won the open 10th Congressional District race keeping this swing seat blue that had been held by the GOP for decades before 2018.” With 137/197 precincts reporting, Subramanyam leads by a 53.6%-46.1% margin. Congratulations!
UPDATE 7:59 pm – Congrats to Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03), who’s easily winning reelection in VA03. Same for Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA08) and Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA11).
UPDATE 7:57 pm – With 755/2,535 precincts reporting, Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump 53.4%-44.8% in Virginia. And with 748/2,536 precincts reporting, Sen. Tim Kaine leads Hung Cao 55.3%-44.7%.
UPDATE 7:47 pm – Per Sam Shirazi, “Loudoun dropped its early voting both in-person and mail Harris wins it 60-37. Not sure if Election Day will be better for Dems or GOP given GOP early voting push. Harris and Kaine on track to win Virginia. Not sure of margin until the end.”
UPDATE 7:44 pm – I’m not going to spend any time on the non-competitive US House races, such as VA03, where Rep. Bobby Scott (D) will win easily over Republican John Sitka; VA05, where Republican John McGuire will, unfortunately, also win easily over Democrat Gloria Witt; VA06, where Rep. Ben Cline (R) will defeat Democrat Ken Mitchell; VA08, where Rep. Don Beyer (D) will easily beat Republican Jerry Torres; VA09, where Rep. Morgan Griffith (R) will easily defeat Democrat Karen Baker; and VA11, where Rep. Gerry Connolly will crush Republican Mike Van Meter.
UPDATE 7:39 pm – With 419/2,536 precincts reporting statewide, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 60.8%-37.2%. A lot of that is due to big leads for Harris in huge, “blue” Fairfax County and Prince William County. Meanwhile, with 418/2,536 precincts reporting, Sen. Tim Kaine (D) leads Hung Cao (R) 62.4%-37.4%. Again, Fairfax and PW County huge for Kaine…
UPDATE 7:33 pm – With 27/221 precincts reporting in VA01, Rep. Rob Wittman (R) leads Democrat Leslie Mehta 61.92%-37.90%. And with 21/250 precincts reporting in VA04, Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D) leads Republican Bill Moher 50.39%-49.46%. Of course, in the end, McClellan will crush Moher, and Mehta will get much closer to Wittman…
UPDATE 7:29 pm – With just 54/2,536 precincts reporting, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 59.85%-39.1% in Virginia. Again, though, keep in mind that results are coming in inconsistently – sometimes early vote, sometimes election day, sometimes a red jurisdiction, sometimes blue. So…stay tuned.
UPDATE 7:24 pm – Per Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett: “Slight crossover happening for [Republican Derrick] Anderson in [Prince William County]- eday Rockledge goes for Harris 415-315 while [Democrat Eugene] Vindman wins 406-322. Keep your eye on the 7th, this level of crossover would make the race extremely tight if expectations hold.”
UPDATE 7:18 pm – A few results trickling in, overwhelmingly from red, rural areas (e.g., Tazewell County, Dickenson County, Carroll County, Bath County). Need to wait until we start getting a more representative sample to really say much of anything.
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It’s 7 pm and polls are now closed in Virginia (although if you’re in line, STAY IN LINE – you legally have the right to cast your ballot)! Results should be coming in soon – quickly, if things go smoothly, so stay tuned. A few thoughts, as we await results…
The fact is, Kamala Harris could win tonight, and that will be GREAT obviously! But even if Harris wins, it won’t change the fact that the country will have come *THIS CLOSE* to careening off the proverbial cliff, losing our democracy, and heading into an incredibly dark chapter – fascism, anyone? ethnic cleansing? abandonment of Ukraine to Putin’s aggression? the end of any hope that we might effectively combat the climate crisis? all kinds of other horrors? – that would be disastrous on every level. So let’s just hope that Kamala Harris wins tonight – preferably, BIG! – and brings about a (relatively) positive end to this horrible, godforsaken election.
What’s truly maddening, though, is that there is ZERO good reason – but a LOT of bad reasons, for sure! – for this election to have even been close at all. I mean, in a sane, well-informed (as opposed to MISinformed or UNinformed) country, one where far too many people hold racist and misogynistic views, Kamala Harris would – and should! – be CRUSHING Trump. I mean, really, given all the horrible sh** Trump has said and done, he literally should not get ANY votes. And given the MASSIVE gap in quality between Harris – empathetic, smart, knowledgeable, competent, etc. – and Trump – sadistic, stupid, ignorant, totally incompetent – this should be/should have been a landslide of historic proportions – for Harris-Walz, of course.
But unfortunately, no matter the outcome tonight, the reality is that there are tens of millions of Americans willing to (actually WISHING to?) commit national suicide simply to “own the libs,” get “revenge” against those they hate, etc. – even if it hurts THEM economically and in many other ways. Nihilistic insanity. Oh, and of course our media environment is almost completely broken, between the toxic cesspool of right-wing media (radio, TV), the disaster of social media (e.g., Elon Musk’s Twitter/X has become a disinformation machine; Meta suppresses pro-Democratic political content and allows unhinged, dangerous crap to proliferate), the “both sides”/false equivalence, cowardice and “sanewashing” of the mostly-corporate-owned-and-operated “mainstream media,” etc, etc. And the end result of all that, despite the tremendous progress we’ve made during the four years of the Biden-Harris administration (including an economy that’s the strongest in the world, with VERY low inflation and VERY low unemployment), tens of millions of Americans are like, “f*** it, let’s burn it all down!” Depressing.
With that not-so-fun intro, and with the prospect of all kinds of idiocy and insanity tonight and in coming days (e.g., Trump and his minions claiming “victory” if/when they get an early lead in vote counts, potential for violence by enraged Trump supporters if it appears he’s lost the election), see below for a live blog of results from Virginia tonight. I’m really hoping that at least the presidential and U.S. Senate elections here in Virginia will be called fairly quickly tonight (of course, it’s basically a 100% lock that both Kamala Harris and Tim Kaine will win Virginia, the only question is the margins of victory). We’ll see about VA02 (Rep. Jen Kiggans vs. Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal) and VA07 (Democrat Eugene Vindman vs. Republican Derrick Anderson) – it’s certainly possible we could know the results of those tonight, but it’s also possible, if either or both of those races are really close, that we’ll have to wait until tomorrow or beyond. We’ll see. Also, I’ll be keeping an eye on the mayoral race in Richmond (we’ll see if that one has to go to a runoff or not) and other Congressional districts (although all of them, other than VA02 and VA07, are pretty much “safe” for one party or the other).
Finally, to conclude on a more positive note, just think about how much better things will be, assuming Harris-Walz win this election – especially if Democrats take back the U.S. House and hold the U.S. Senate, both of which are crucial if we want to get anything done the next four years. Imagine: sane, rational, responsible leadership as opposed to Trump’s insanity, irrationality, recklessness, corruption, etc. Empathy, not cruelty. Competence, not utter incompetence. Working with our allies and against our enemies, not the converse of that. Believing in science and, more broadly, fact/reality, as opposed to the “inject bleach”/”COVID will just disappear” crowd. Leadership we can be proud of, instead of horrified to even think about. Legislation to build on the successes of the Biden-Harris administration, whether on clean energy/climate, fixing our severely ailing democracy, expanding affordable/quality health care coverage to all Americans; etc. And, imagine this: being able to get back to our lives without having to think about the “narcissistic maniac,” Donald Trump – to use former Gov. Ralph Northam’s memorable turn of phrase – anymore? What a concept.
Anyway, I’ll be focused on following the election here in Virginia, where polls close at 7 pm. My main sources for Virginia election data will be the State Board of Elections website and VPAP. I may also check in with the Fairfax County Board of Elections numbers, as they are sometimes faster than the SBE. With that, it’s showtime!
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