VPAP is now out with its “VPAP Index,” which “ranks each of Virginia’s state legislative and congressional districts based on the average of their estimated performance in the 2021 gubernatorial elections and the precinct results from the 2024 presidential election,” using “reallocated precinct results from 2024, but uses estimated results from 2021.” See below for the results, in map form, as well as a few highlights.
- For the 100-seat Virginia House of Delegates, VPAP calculates that there are 28 “Strong Republican” districts, 14 “Leans Republican” districts, 10 “Competitive,” 9 “Leans Democratic” and 39 “Strong Democratic.” So, just 10 out of 100 seats are considered truly competitive in this analysis, with 48 leaning or strong Democratic and 42 leaning or strong Republican.
- The 10 competitive House of Delegates districts (next general election in November 2025), per VPAP’s analysis, are: HD86 (Hampton/York/Poquoson; incumbent Republican Del. A.C. Cordoza), HD22 (Prince William; incumbent Republican Del. Ian Lovejoy), HD89 (Chesapeake/Suffolk; incumbent Republican Del. Baxter Ennis), HD71 (James City/Williamsburg; incumbent Republican Del. Amanda Batten), HD75 (Chesterfield/Hopewell; incumbent Republican Del. Carrie Coyner), HD82 (Petersburg/Dinwiddie; incumbent Republican Del. Kim Taylor), HD21 (Prince William; incumbent Democratic Del. Josh Thomas), HD97 (Virginia Beach; incumbent Democratic Del. Michael Feggans), HD65 (Fredericksburg area; incumbent Democratic Del. Josh Cole), and HD57 (Western Henrico; incumbent Republican Del. David Owen).
- The four State Senate districts ranked as competitive by VPAP are SD27 (Fredericksburg area; incumbent Republican Sen. Tara Durant), SD17 (Hampton Roads/Southside; incumbent Republican Del. Emily Jordan), SD24 (Peninsula; incumbent Republican Sen. Danny Diggs) and SD31 (Loudoun/Fauquier; incumbent Democratic Sen. Russet Perry).
- Only one U.S. House district (VA07 – Prince William/Stafford/Spotsylvania/Culpeper/Orange/etc. – which was just won by Democrat Eugene Vindman by 2.6 points over Republican Derrick Anderson) is considered truly competitive by VPAP. Other than VA07, there’s also “Leans Republican” VA02 (+5.6R; Virginia Beach/Chesapeake/Suffolk/etc. – incumbent Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans defeated Democratic Missy Cotter Smasal on 11/5/24 by just under 4 points) and “Leans Democratic” VA10 (+5.1 D; Loudoun/Prince William/Fauquier/etc. – Democrat Suhas Subramanyam defeated Republican Mike Clancy by about 4.6 points on 11/5/24).
- In sum, the vast majority of Virginia legislative and U.S. House districts are not considered competitive, with 90/100 (90%) House of Delegates districts, 36/40 (90%) State Senate districts and 10/11 (91%) U.S. House districts pretty safe for one party or the other. Of course, in a “blue wave” or “red wave” election, more districts could be competitive. On the other hand, some districts that are rated as theoretically being competitive might not really be, if there’s a strong incumbent there, or if the opposing party doesn’t come up with a strong nominee.
So what jumps out at you?
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