A few weeks ago, the Levar Stoney for Lt. Governor campaign released an “internal” poll of the Democratic primary contest, showing 63% undecided, and among the rest, 16% for former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, followed by State Senator Aaron Rouse at 10%, State Senator Ghazala Hashmi at 8%, Prince William County School Board Chair Babur Lateef at 2%. Now, we’ve got a brand-new poll from the Ghazala Hashmi for LG campaign – see below for that, and keep in mind the usual caveats (e.g., which campaign conducted the poll – in this case, Hashmi’s; whether the firm that did the poll is serious/legitimate – GBAO definitely is; whether the questions, including “neutral” descriptions of the candidates being polled, are fair/balanced – those aren’t provided in this memo, so…got me; whether the results make intuitive sense, based on what we already know about the candidates’ name IDs; etc – 46 undecided definitely makes sense at this point, and it’s not surprising to me that a woman leads the men, given that Democratic primary voters generally have a preference for women over men, at least here in Virginia the past few years).
With that, see below for the new “internal” poll by Ghazala Hashmir’s campaign. It finds the following:
- With the June 17 primary about 2 1/2 months away, “This race is wide open, with many voters undecided. The vote starts off with Ghazala Hashmi, Aaron Rouse, and Levar Stoney in a statistical tie, and 46% of primary voters have yet to make up their minds.”
- “Only a third of the electorate knows Stoney (34% ID) and just a quarter are familiar with Hashmi (25% ID) and Rouse (26% ID). Lateef and Salgado are each known by 16% of primary voters.”
- “Ghazala Hashmi stands out as the most well-liked, holding the highest favorable to unfavorable ratio (20% favorable to 6% unfavorable), ahead of Stoney (23% to 11%) and Rouse (18% to 7%). In the Richmond market, where she serves, Hashmi boasts an impressive +35 favorability rating (net favorable – unfavorable).”
- “When voters learn more, Hashmi’s message breaks through, and she pulls into the lead. After hearing positive profiles of each candidate simulating a campaign, Hashmi’s support jumps from 13% to 28%, while others only see modest single-digit gains, and puts her in the lead. Her message particularly resonates with women, who after hearing it, back her 32% to Stoney’s 21% and Rouse’s 17%.”
So…yeah, this race appeares to be pretty wide open between Ghazala Hashmi, Aaron Rouse, Levar Stoney (with Babur Lateef and Victor Salgado significantly behind). In the end, with this many undecided voters, it’s going to come down to a significant degree to what extent each candidate is able to get its message – and its candidate – in front of voters, so that by primary day on June 17, a plurality show up and vote for that candidate (note: there’s no Ranked Choice Voting in this, unfortunately, so it’s “first past the post”). We’ll also see if there are any major endorsements that might move the needle, or whether debate performances, the campaigns’ field games, etc. can make the difference. Anyway…stay tuned!
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To: Interested Parties
From: GBAO
Date: March 31, 2025
Virginia Democratic Primary Poll: Ghazala Hashmi Has A Clear Path To Victory
A survey of likely June 2025 Virginia Democratic primary voters shows State Senator Ghazala Hashmi has a clear path to victory.
With months to go until the primary, the race is up for grabs — name recognition is low across the board, and nearly half of voters are still undecided. But once voters hear from all sides, Hashmi’s message proves the most persuasive — and she pulls ahead.
These findings are based on a survey of 600 likely 2025 Democratic primary voters in Virginia conducted March 24-27, 2025.1
Key Findings
• This race is wide open, with many voters undecided. The vote starts off with Ghazala Hashmi, Aaron Rouse, and Levar Stoney in a statistical tie, and 46% of primary voters have yet to make up their minds.
Initial Vote: If the Democratic primary election for Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote?
• While no candidate is particularly well-known, Hashmi is the most popular. Only a third of the electorate knows Stoney (34% ID) and just a quarter are familiar with Hashmi (25% ID) and Rouse (26% ID). Lateef and Salgado are each known by 16% of primary voters. Ghazala Hashmi stands out as the most well-liked, holding the highest favorable to unfavorable ratio (20% favorable to 6% unfavorable), ahead of Stoney (23% to 11%) and Rouse (18% to 7%). In the Richmond market, where she serves, Hashmi boasts an impressive +35 favorability rating (net favorable – unfavorable).
• When voters learn more, Hashmi’s message breaks through, and she pulls into the lead. After hearing positive profiles of each candidate simulating a campaign, Hashmi’s support jumps from 13% to 28%, while others only see modest single-digit gains, and puts her in the lead. Her message particularly resonates with women, who after hearing it, back her 32% to Stoney’s 21% and Rouse’s 17%.
Profile Vote: If the Democratic primary election for Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote?
The multi-modal survey was conducted using live phone interviews and text-to-web interviews. The sample was pulled from a voter file and is subject to a +/- 4.0 percentage point margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
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